Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10ANTANANARIVO56
2010-02-02 07:41:00
SECRET
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

MADAGASCAR: TGV'S CHOICES: ACCEPT PING PROPOSAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL MA 
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O 020741Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3273
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE
S E C R E T ANTANANARIVO 000056 


ADDIS PASS AF/AS JOHNNIE CARSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: TGV'S CHOICES: ACCEPT PING PROPOSAL
OR LEAVE OFFICE

Classified By: Ambassador Niels Marquardt for reasons 1.5 d and e.

S E C R E T ANTANANARIVO 000056


ADDIS PASS AF/AS JOHNNIE CARSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL MA
SUBJECT: MADAGASCAR: TGV'S CHOICES: ACCEPT PING PROPOSAL
OR LEAVE OFFICE

Classified By: Ambassador Niels Marquardt for reasons 1.5 d and e.


1. (S) Summary: Finally exasperated with Rajoelina's
incompetence, a group from within his inner circle and the
military will give him a stark: accept the Ping/AU
"compromise" proposal, or stand aside to allow a consensual
council to run Madagascar until elections. Rajoelina returns
today from Paris and will be presented with this choice later
this week. End Summary.


2. (C) Presidential Chief of Staff Zazah Ramandimbarasoa
(strictly protect) came to see me discreetly at the residence
this morning. He had just returned from Addis where, with
Foreign Minister Ny Hasina Andriamanjato, they had met with
Ramtane Lamamra of the AU, the French and EU Ambassadors, and
UN Under Secretary Lynn Pascoe and UN Political Affairs
Director Haile Menkerios. He said they all had the same
tough message: agree to consensus as proposed by Jean Ping,
or sanctions and isolation will follow. The situation, he
said, is very difficult.


3. (C) Zazah said he and others in the inner circle are
preparing a letter to Jean Ping for TGV to sign when he
returns from his private visit to Paris (perhaps later
today). The draft lettter essentially accepts the compromise
proposal Ping left here on January 22. Zazah explained that
some face-saving provisions, particularly involving the
departure from the co-presidency of Ravalomanana nominee
Fetison Rakoto Andrianirina, would have to be managed, as
Fetison and Rajoelina can no longer work together, he said.
I told him that Fetison had told me he would not insist on
holding his position if leaving would permit a resolution of
the crisis, but that the issue needed to be worked in a
consensual way involving all the parties -- not forced
unilaterally on Ravalomanana and Fetison. He also raised the
issue of the consensus prime minister, suggesting -- but not
insisting -- that Camille Vital might stay on in place of
Eugene Mangalaza. I questioned whether Ravalomanana would
accept Vital, who makes no effort to hide his dislike for the
former President (whom he blames for ending his military
career),but suggested that they continue to work on this as
a package. The U.S., I said, will accept whatever compromise
the Malagasy themselves can agree upon.



4. (S) Zazah then went into a long monologue about
Rajoelina's incompetence, lack of decision-making ability,
immaturity, instability, and general unfitness for his
position. He regretted the rampant lawlessness, non-respect
of human rights, and the despoilation of Madagadscar's
natural resources for short-term gain under HAT rule. "The
track record on governance is terrible", he said. He allowed
that he is not optimistic that Rajoelina will accept to sign
the draft letter, in which case he and others have developed
a Plan B. Plan B is for Rajoelina to "step aside" in favor
of a council or directorate composed of respected technocrats
from across the political spectrum and perhaps some military
officers. The council will then lead the country forward
consensually to elections. He said Rajoelina will not want
to accept this -- "his ego is too big" -- but the backing of
the military for this plan -- which Zazah says he enjoys --
will help TGV realize that he has no choice. I insisted
three times that another coup is not what Madagascar needs,
and each time Zazah assured me that this will not be a coup,
that the transition will amount to a consensual act, albeit
one about which Rajoelina will have no choice. I asked who
else is involved and he offered me an impressive list of TGV
insiders and respected Generals who he said are behind Plan

B. Military support is the key, he said.


5. (C) We then discussed ongoing efforts to create the
consensus necessary for implementing the Ping proposal. I
again deplored the arrest warrant against Co-President
Fetison and explained my effort over the weekend to broker a
meeting between Fetison and Camille Vital (which never took
place). Zazah said Vital is among those on board with his
plan and that he expects to be present later today when
Fetison and Vital do finally meet. (He then called Vital in
my presence to confirm this meeting.) I suggested that all
the movements, including the moderates in the HAT, accept the
invitation Fetison has sent out to the entire spectrum of
political opinion and civil society for an "inclusive
meeting" this Thursday and Friday at the Carlton Hotel. I
said that the HAT has proven incapable of rallying any
consensus, but could contribute to one by responding
positively to the Fetison initiative. Zazah seemed to agree
and said he would discuss this later today with Vital and
Fetison. He agreed that time was extremely short before the
Ping deadline expires and that there is no time to wait for
other initiatives if sanctions and isolation are to be
avoided.


6. (C) Regarding the threat of sanctions, I asked Zazah
whether he thought that TGV was taking this seriously. Zazah
said that the Paris visit, during which TGV spoke directly to
Elysee Sec-Gen Claude Gueant, finally had removed the last
doubt and hope from TGV's mind on this issue. Everyone,
Zazah said, is now saying exactly the same thing, and there
is no alternative left to accepting the Ping proposal (or
Plan B). He said the French must now be thinking beyond TGV,
looking for an acceptable alternative to come to power
through elections. "That's how they are -- not loyal, and
not sentimental," he opined. Zazah said he discounts rumors
that Total is behind TGV: "they too are looking for
alternatives." He mentioned individual French politicians,
including the French Senator for the Indian Ocean, as people
who have been falsely assuring TGV that he can stand pat, but
said that their promises are no longer credible to TGV.
Zazah said he would also "talk to the French", but noted that
Ambassador Chataigner is still in Paris. He said their
charge d'affaires here is too closely linked to TGV Advisor
(and dual national) Patrick Leloup; Leloup is a petty crook,
Zazah said (and we agree),who has been giving TGV bad advice
while going around shaking down businesses and looting the
country. He therefore will not be speaking to the French
charge.


7. (S) Comment: This move toward a "council" is not
entirely a surprise, although its origin so deep within TGV's
inner circle -- rather than within the military -- was not
expected. At the same time, the gap between talk and action
remains wide in Madagascar, and may remain so in this case
too. For our parts, we will continue to push all parties
together toward consensus as the AU deadline approaches. End
Comment.


MARQUARDT