SCENESETTER FOR CODEL WASSERMAN SCHULTZ

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 000003

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SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL WASSERMAN SCHULTZ

ANKARA 00000003 001.3 OF 004


Welcome
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1. (SBU) Welcome to Ankara. Your visit comes one month after
Prime Minister Erdogan and President Obama met for three
hours, an event that received a warm reception in the Turkish
press. The two leaders discussed our countries' close
collaboration on Afghanistan, convincing Iran to give up its
nuclear weapons program, eliminating the terrorist Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK),improving security in Iraq, and
increasing bilateral trade. The content of the fruitful
discussions was outlined in their joint statement after the
meeting, which can be found at
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/re marks-president
-obama-and-prime-minister-erdogan-turkey-afte r-meeting.


2. (SBU) The past few months have been a busy period for the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. Since
August, the AKP has begun to promote a 'National Unity
Project' as a way to improve the ethnic Kurdish minority's
social, economic and cultural situation. The program aims to
implement reforms that would reduce the alienation of those
Turkish Kurds who would be otherwise inclined to support or
join the PKK. The military campaign against the PKK
continues, and General Ilker Basbug, leader of the Turkish
Armed Forces (TSK) has supported the National Unity Project
as a complement to security operations. The AKP hopes to
find ways to apply the benefits of these reforms to other
minority groups as well.


3. (SBU) However, due to the December 11 decision by the
Constitutional Court to close the predominantly Kurdish
Democratic Society Party (DTP) and ban several of its members
from politics for 5 years for their PKK connections, some
Turkish Kurds have started to lose faith in the AKP and the
project. Opposition parties also increasingly are attacking
the AKP for launching a project that would grant special
treatment to a particular ethnic group, thereby threatening
the Turkey's national cohesion.


4. (SBU) Meanwhile, Turkish unemployment rose to dramatic
highs in 2009. While unemployment levels are dropping, the
economy is still recovering from the global financial crisis,
which hit Turkey's manufacturing sector hard due to a reduced
demand for exports. Turkey's per capita GDP is predicted to
shrink by $2,000 in 2009, and it's GDP growth rate will be a
negative 6 percent. Increasing criticism of the AKP's
economic policies provoked the Prime Minister to give his
first "state of the economy" speech on December 30.


5. (SBU) The discovery December 22 of an alleged plot by
eight soldiers to assassinate State Minister Bulent Arinc has
also generated extensive press coverage and fevered
speculation the military is conspiring to overthrow a
government whose Islamist orientation arouses the antagonism
of the officer corps. The investigation into the activities
of the eight suspects is ongoing.


6. (SBU) Your high-level meeting counterpart (to be
confirmed) will be informed of your desire to discuss
Turkey's role in the Middle East peace process, especially
its relationship with Israel (para. 7),and Turkey's process
of accession to the EU (para. 8). Information about U.S.
assistance programs to Turkey (para. 11),and Turkey's
relations with Armenia (para 13) are below, as well as a
paragraph on the charity that some members of your delegation
will visit (para. 15).

Turkey, Israel, and Middle East Peace
--------------


7. (SBU) Despite disagreement over the AKP government's
outreach to HAMAS, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and former

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Israeli Prime Minister Olmert had communicated directly and
frequently prior to the late December 2008 start of Israel's
"Cast Lead" military operation in Gaza. The operation played
very badly for Israel in the Turkish media. Clamorous public
demonstrations in Ankara and Istanbul condemned perceived
Israeli "war crimes" and demanded international intervention
to protect Gazan civilians. Erdogan harshly criticized
Israel publicly and claimed Olmert had promised not to invade
Gaza during his official visit to Turkey just a few days
prior to ordering Cast Lead. Erdogan implied he could no
longer trust Olmert and Israeli diplomats and politicians
suddenly lost access to senior GoT political levels. Erdogan
vigorously and frequently criticized Israel's closure of Gaza
on humanitarian grounds up until Israeli Industry, Labor and
Trade Minister Ben-Eliezer's late November visit to Ankara
and Erdogan's December 7 meeting with President Obama. Since
those events, Erdogan's criticism has become noticeably
muted. The GoT has invited Israeli Defense Minister Barak to
meetings in Ankara January 17. We interpret that invitation
positively as an indication of the Turkish government's
willingness to reopen a senior-level communications channel
with Israel. You could very helpfully encourage this
rapprochement by conveying to your interlocutors our belief
that Ankara's aspiration to become a major Middle Eastern
mediator would be more likely realized if the GoT cultivates
and maintains a civil public dialogue with Israel as well as
Syria and the Palestinian Authority.

EU Accession
--------------


8. (SBU) Turkey formally became a candidate state for the
European Union in 2004 and began negotiations on October 3,

2005. So far, one chapter on science and technology has been
opened and provisionally closed. Eleven other chapters have
been opened, on free movement of capital, company law
(business regulation),intellectual property law, information
society and media, statistics, enterprise and industrial
policy, trans-European network, environment, consumer and
health protection, and financial controls. Nine chapters,
mostly related to trade, were suspended by the European
Council in December 2006 after Turkey declined to open its
ports and airports to Greek Cypriot vessels--a commitment
Turkey made as part of the Ankara Additional Protocol and its
EU Customs Union membership. Six were blocked by Cyprus for
similar reasons, and three were blocked by France for other
reasons.


9. (SBU) The Turkish public is growing increasingly
frustrated with the EU, in part because the accession process
has been blocked by Cyprus and other states, but also in
reaction to the skepticism about Turkey's suitability for
membership in principle expressed by several EU member state
leaders. Nevertheless, the GOT is pushing forward on
accession, creating a position of Minister for EU Accession
in January 2009 and hiring 140 new civil servants to staff
the ministry. Regional offices will be opened in all 81
provinces to help promote the goals of accession. Raising
living standards to those prevalent in Europe will require
high rates of GDP growth and a well-functioning market
economy. This will entail continued structural reforms that
encourage both domestic and foreign investment. Principal
areas for reform identified by international financial
institutions include increasing flexibility in the labor
market, making the educational sector more responsive to the
needs of the economy, and ensuring faster and more
predictable operation of the judicial system. As an aspirant
to membership in the European Union, Turkey aims to adopt the
EU's basic system of national law and regulation (the acquis
communataire) by 2014. While implementing some elements of
the acquis will be costly and difficult (for example in the
areas of environmental protection and agriculture),its
adoption will make a significant contribution to modernizing

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the economy.


10. (SBU) A settlement in Cyprus negotiations will be key to
keeping Turkey's accession talks on track because Cyprus is
blocking the opening of six chapters. The negotiations are
expected to intensify ahead of the mid-February 2010 start of
the Turkish Cypriot "presidential" campaign, which
pro-settlement incumbent Mehmet Ali Talat will likely lose
barring significant progress in the talks. UN Special
Advisor Downer aims to reach agreement on governance and
power sharing, EU matters, and economy by mid-February, while
leaving the difficult issues of property, territory, and
security guarantees (involving the presence of Turkish troop
and intervention rights) to the endgame.

U.S. Assistance
--------------


11. (SBU) A democratic, market-oriented U.S. ally in a
volatile region, Turkey is a front-line state in the world
community's struggles against terrorism, drug trafficking,
organized crime and weapons of mass destruction
proliferation. Its political and economic stability is
critical to achieving a wide range of U.S. policy goals.
With a 2008 per capita GDP of $10,436, Turkey's ability to
contribute to these goals is limited by resource constraints,
excessive bureaucracy, and domestic opposition to reform.
Well-targeted U.S. assistance helps to address these
bottlenecks and contributes to an improved perception of
America among a mistrustful population.


12. (SBU) For FY 2011, Post will request support for the
following programs:

-- Counterterrorism ($1.1 million)
-- Resident Legal Advisor program ($700,000)
-- Combating weapons of mass destruction ($1.2 million)
-- International military education and training (IMET)($5
million)
-- Counternarcotics (INCLE) ($500,000)
-- Economic support fund (ESF)
-- Governing justly and democratically ($400,000)
-- Investing in people ($1 million)
-- Economic growth ($6.1 million)

Armenia
--------------


13. (SBU) The USG has worked hard to encourage candid
discussion in Turkey of the tragedy suffered by ethnic
Armenians during World War I. The Turkish and Armenian
governments have made important progress in their
negotiations on normalizing bilateral relations and opening
the border. On April 22, Turkey and Armenia issued a joint
statement on the "road map" to normalizing their bilateral
relations. There has also been a small, but growing voice
within Turkey calling for a more open examination of the
events during that period. The number one issue in
U.S.-Turkish bilateral relations is whether the USG or
Congress will endorse a resolution labeling this tragedy a
genocide, which would incense Turkey's public and set back
the efforts of those in Turkey calling for comprehensive
examination of the history and normalized Turkish-Armenian
relations.


14. (SBU) Turkey and Armenia began a process of rapprochement
recently. On October 8, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu and Armenia's Foreign Minister Edward Narabandian
signed protocols to reestablish formally diplomatic
relations. The protocols have to be ratified by each
country's parliament before they can be enacted, however, and
have languished since they were signed. Azerbaijan does not
support Turkey's reestablishment of relations until Armenia

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withdraws from certain regions of the Nagorno-Karabakh, and
Turkey's public is loath to turn its back on its Turkic
brother country. The OSCE Minsk Group, which has been
working with Armenia and Azerbaijan to reach a settlement on
the Nagorno-Karabakh, has not been making much progress
lately. The U.S. does not recognize this linkage, however,
and continues to press for the protocols to be passed in
parliament quickly.

ANACEV
--------------


15. (SBU) The Anatolia Contemporary Education Foundation
(ANACEV) was established in 1997, and provides (a) education
to adult women -- especially in reading and writing -- as its
primary goal, (b) education to pre-school students, and (c)
scholarships to primary, secondary, and university students.
The foundation runs three literacy centers and a kindergarten
in Ankara. Construction of the kindergarten, which collects
fees for enrollment that it uses in part to fund its
scholarship program, was partly funded by former Ambassador
Robert Pearson's wife.


16. (SBU) The delegation's spouses will visit the Yildiz
literacy center for ANACEV, which was opened in 1997. The
center particularly reaches out to illiterate women who live
in the city's dilapidated "built-at-night" (gecekondu)
houses, constructed by poor and recent migrant families. The
spouse of Post's former Deputy Chief of Mission Nancy
McEldowney, Tim Hayes, worked with embassy employees to
collect computers and desks to furnish one room of the center
where they teach computer literacy. Secretary Clinton
visited this center in 1999 in her capacity as First Lady.
ANACEV's president, who was former Prime Minister Tansu
Ciller's Chief of Cabinet, is Mrs. Ayla Hatirli.


17. (U) We look forward to your visit.
JEFFREY

"Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.s
gov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turkey"