D/SRAP JONES BILATERALS AT ISTANBUL REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 00246

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT ALSO FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2020
TAGS: PREL ECON PGOV AF TU
SUBJECT: D/SRAP JONES BILATERALS AT ISTANBUL REGIONAL
SUMMIT ON AFGHANISTAN

REF: ANKARA 72

Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Deputy Special Representative for
Afghanistan and Pakistan (SRAP) Paul Jones met with senior
representatives from China, Russia, Turkey, Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan, and the Organization of Islamic States (OIC) on
the edges of the January 26 Afghanistan neighbors conference
in Istanbul. He provided an overview of ongoing U.S. efforts
in Afghanistan and solicited interlocutors' views on issues
including: enhanced coordination of Afghanistan assistance;
regional challenges to Afghan stability (such as extremism
and the narcotics trade); potential frameworks for regional
cooperation; the roles of various countries, including India
and Iran, in stabilizing Afghanistan; and prospects for
Afghan-led efforts to reintegrate low-level Taliban members.
All bilats underscored growing interest among Afghanistan's
neighbors to contribute to regional stability, in
coordination with U.S. policy.


2. (C) SUMMARY (Cont.): While emphasizing that Russia's
primary concerns in Afghanistan are preventing al-Qaeda's
return and reducing the regional drug trade, Russian Deputy
Foreign Minister Bordavkin indicated that Russia and other
SCO members would support promoting Afghanistan's neutrality
among its neighbors. Chinese SRAP Sun Weidong underscored
Chinese Qort for additional civilian assistance to
Afghanistan and discussed the challenges of working with
Pakistan. Foreign ministers from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
proposed hosting conferences to further regional cooperation
on Afghanistan and reiterated their strong support for U.S.
efforts in Afghanistan. Turkey's SRAP, Ambassador Engin
Soysal, discussed frameworks for regional cooperation.
Defending exclusion of India from the conference, he
explained that Turkey believed different groupings of
regional countries were needed to address different issues.
Managing the views of Iran, India, and Pakistan would require
a flexible diplomatic approach and Turkey will include India
in future forums, such as the Regional Economic Conference
(RECCA),which Turkey will host in 2010. END SUMMARY.

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RUSSIA
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3. (C) Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Borodavkin expressed
concerns about rumored negotiations between ISAF and senior
Afghan Taliban leaders. He emphasized that Pakistan's
negotiations with the Taliban had ended in failure and had
grave consequences for Pakistan's security. Borodavkin also
said that while Russia wished the United States success with
its military operations in Afghanistan, it was concerned that
ISAF was too focused on Afghanistan's East and South,
allowing the Taliban to encroach on previously stable areas
in the North. Deputy SRAP Jones replied that he would share
Qodavkin's concerns with ISAF Commander General McChrystal
and noted that the U.S. troop surge would help reverse
Taliban momentum. Jones said that the United States and ISAF
were focused on supporting Afghan-led reintegration of
fighters and low-level commanders, not negotiations with
Taliban leadership. Borodavkin highlighted Russia's concerns
about drug trafficking as "the most pressing concern" for
Russia. Jones explained our desire to expand counter-drug
cooperation. Towards that end, Jones noted that U.S. Office
of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) Director Gil
Kerlikowske would soon travel to Afghanistan and Moscow with
an interagency team to discuss ways to expand cooperation
against drug traffickers. Jones said the U.S. was open to
adding names of drug traffickers associated with the Taliban
and al-Qaeda to the UN 1267 list, in addition to well-founded
de-listings. He noted the 1267 committee's January 25
decision to de-list five individuals formerly associated with
the Taliban, which had previously been blocked by Russia.
Keeping the 1267 list alive required additions and
de-listings. Borodavkin said that he "100 percent agreed"
with this approach. Russia was willing to consider UN 1267
de-listings if requests were well-founded. He encouraged the
United States to share names and information.


4. (C) Changing from security issues, Qodavkin provided a
read-out of the SCO Deputy Foreign Ministers' meeting held in
Moscow on January 2QWhile the "Iranians were Iranian,"
Borodavkin said all of the SCO members expressed a desire to
support Afghanistan. Recalling his November 2009 discussions
in Moscow with Special Representative Holbrooke, Borodavkin
said that he had floated the U.S. idea about a framework for
reaffirming Afghanistan's neutral status. All of the Central
Asian republics, as well as China, Russia, and Iran were
supportive. Afghan President Karzai's team was also
enthusiastic, though the Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister
expressed reservations that if Afghanistan said it was
"neutral," countries would cease to provide vital assistance.
Borodavkin suggested that if the United States continued its
cautious diplomacy on this issue, an agreement would be
reached. The key: avoiding any impression that we are
forcing this on the Afghans. Jones expressed appreciation
for the read-out and said that support from other countries
on Afghan's neutrality was a good first step.


5. (C) Borodavkin said Russia supports the SCO as the best
forum for regional issues, since all regional players are
members or observers (note: but not the U.S.). He noted
several other proposed regional mechanisms: Uzbekistan's
"6 3," the "Bishkek Initiative," and Kazakhstan's proposal to
host a conference focused on humanitarian issues in
Afghanistan. Jones replied that we should avoid creating
rigid regional frameworks and noted India's exclusion from
the Istanbul conference. Borodavkin volunteered that India
was "very upset" about being excluded. He added that the SCO
was the best forum for India; though it was an observer,
Russia did not differentiate between observers and members.
Concluding the meeting, Borodavkin welcomed continued
coordination with the United StatQon Afghanistan.

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TURKEY
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6. (C) Turkish SRAP Ambassador Engin Soysal welcomed U.S.
participation in the Istanbul conference and said that
regional cooperation needed to be initiated by neighbors and
not imposed from the outside. Turkey was "fully transparent"
with India about its participation in the Istanbul meeting,
felt inviting India would have complicated summit dynamics,
and understood Pakistan's desire to exclude India since the
genesis for the Istanbul conference came from a trilateral
meeting that Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan had in 2009.
While arguing that India was "not ready to attend a meeting
with all of the observers," Soysal said India would
participate along with Afghanistan and Pakistan at the
Turkish-hosted Regional Economic Conference (RECCA) that
Turkey would host later in 2010. Focusing more broadly on
Turkey's diplomatic efforts to support Afghanistan, Soysal
said that Turkey wanted to help Pakistan build its confidence
by creating "a safe context" for initial engagement with
Afghanistan's neighbors. Asked to comment on Iranian views
towards regional cooperation on Afghanistan, Soysal said that
Iran was "obsessed with structures." Soysal believed the
Obama administration presented a new opportunity to engage
all of Afghanistan's neighbors in focused areas. He said
that Iranian Vice President Rahimi had listened closely to
Jones' remarks during the plenary, taking careful notes, and
that a calibrated approach in regional fora could pay
potential dividends. Briefly noting ongoing discussions on
Turkey providing additional assistance to Pakistan, Soysal
said he expected the new Islamabad office of Turkey's
international aid agency (TIKA) to be up and running within a
month.

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CHINA
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7. (C) Chinese SRAP and Deputy Director General for Asian
Affairs Sun Weidong expressed appreciation for the positive
cooperation with the United States on Afghanistan over the
past few months, as well as the bilateral discussions in
November 2009 headed by Deputy SRAP Dan Feldman. Sun said
the MFA had forwarded recently received U.S. proposals for
joint projects (Ref B) to Chinese Foreign Minister Yang who
was studying them. Echoing Yang's earlier statement to the
conference, Sun said that Afghanistan's neighbors should play
a positive role in civilian efforts and highlighted the
importance of non-interference in Afghanistan's domestic
affairs. Sun advocated a &series of dialogues8 on how to
help Afghanistan's neighbors and said that each neighbor's
concerns would need to be addressed if Afghanistan was to be
stabilized. Jones and Sun discussed the recently released
U.S. Afghanistan and Pakistan Regional Stabilization
Strategy, with Jones emphasizing thQ the United States has
no plans for long-term military bases in the region. Turning
to Pakistan, Sun said that the international community must
provide more support. Acknowledging that even China found
the Pakistani government a difficult partner to work with,
Sun opined that Pakistanis &had such a dignity. They want to
do it themselves.8 He advised a respectful approach and
said that the fact that Pakistan's anti-terror strategies
came from Pakistan itself and were supported by the Pakistani
people would help our efforts in the long-run. Sun closed by
volunteering that China also would like to see decreased
tension and increased cooperation between Pakistan and rival
India.

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KYRGYZSTAN
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8. (C) Kyrgyz State Minister of Foreign Affairs Kadyrbek
Sarbaev noted Kyrgyzstan maintains its Transit Center at
Manas despite protests from other regional countries because
Kyrgyzstan believes the United States must win the war in
Afghanistan. He mentioned several times his concerns about
what might happen if the United States pulls its forces out
of Afghanistan in 2011. Jones explained we do not plan a
precipitous pullout but rather a responsible transition to a
greater Afghan leadQt is based on the conditions on the
ground. Sarbaev spoke at length about the "Bishkek
initiative," sharing a white paper that outlined a series of
three conferences on narrow topics agreed upon by the
regional players, including Russia and China. He said these
conferences would complement other regional efforts.
Separately, Sarbaev said that in five years Kyrgyzstan will
have enough electricity for export to Afghanistan, and can
also offer more training to Afghans. On reintegration, he
said that while the time was not right for negotiations with
senior-level Taliban commanders, Kyrgyzstan knows which
Taliban commanders are willing to be reintegrated and with
whom they are willing to talk, "as well as the people by whom
they could be influenced." Sarbaev said that Kyrgyzstan was
willing to share this information and to offer its territory
and influence to start a reintegration process. Deputy SRAP
Jones thanked the FM for the offer and suggested he discuss
it with the Afghan government.

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ORGANIZATION OF THE ISLAMIC CONFERENCE (OIC)
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9. (C) OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu confirmed
that not all OIC member states had Ambassador-level
representation in Afghanistan and that President Karzai has
shared his concerns about this. He explained that most OIC
countries are represented at some level, and there is growing
interest in further representation, but the current security
situation holds full representation back. Ihsanoglu
expressed his opinion that that time was right for the Afghan
government and the international community to engage with the
Taliban, explaining his belief that there is a "big
difference" between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. While al-Qaeda
was a "professional terrorism group," the Taliban were "the
sons of Afghanistan." Ihsanoglu said that he personally did
not like the Taliban, but their political power and ethnic
influence were a reality that must be recognized. He offered
that the OIC had experience in moderating the views of Muslim
groups and leaders through dialogue and contended that the
OIC was the only organization that all sides would feel
comfortable engaging with. He said the OIC could provide a
framework not available anywhere else that would give all
parties to the conflict a sense of ownership in its
resolution.

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TAJIKISTAN
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10. (C) Tajikistan's Foreign Minister Hamrohon Zarifi
emphasized the need for transport and energy routes avoid the
proQatic Uzbekistan. Zarifi referred to the SCO as a
positive and practical forum for Afghanistan and Pakistan
issues, and noted that China had used the SCO to discuss
potential investment projects. He expressed interest in
Tajikistan providing an alternative to Manas as an air hub
for humanitarian flights to supply ISAF. He also said
Tajikistan's was interested in holding the next major
international conference on Afghanistan in Dushanbe.
Commenting on Afghanistan's complex ethnic politics, he
suggested that Afghanistan would benefit from the creation of
a prime ministerial post in addition to the current
presidential post, as this would allow different ethnic
groups to be represented at the central government's top
levels. Tajikistan's model of a president and prime minister
from different regions worked well.


11. (U) Deputy SRAP Paul Jones has cleared this cable.

Jeffrey

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