CHP DEPUTY CHAIR OYMAN ON EARLY ELECTIONS, MIL-GOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000121

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: CHP DEPUTY CHAIR OYMAN ON EARLY ELECTIONS, MIL-GOV
RELATIONS, ARMENIA AND FOREIGN POLICY

REF: A. ANKARA 87

B. ANKARA 107

Classified By: Ambassador James Jeffrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: During a January 23 conversation with the
Ambassador, Republican People's Party (CHP) Deputy Chairman
Onur Oyman predicted elections in 2010 that would cost the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) its ability to
govern without forming a coalition. AKP's likely partner
would be the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP),not CHP.
Oyman is pleased by Friday's Constitutional Court ruling that
annulled the AKP-drafted law extending civil court
jurisdiction over military personnel. He claimed AKP's
campaign against the military is costing it support and
contributing to the unease of Turkey's populace. The former
MFA undersecretary criticized the AKP's signing of the
Armenia Protocols and outreach to the Kurdish Regional
Governent in northern Iraq. He regretted the attenuation of
Turkey's relationship with Israel and the AKP's willngness to
cozy up to unsavory Middle Eastern actors. He reitereated
party leader Deniz Baykal's desire to visit Washington this
spring. End Summary.

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Early Elections Coming, AKP Single-Party Government Out
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2. (C) Oyman flatly predicted new elections in 2010,
elections which will rob the AKP of its single-party
government status. Oyman was not quite sure how the timing
would work out in 2010 between the elections and Erdogan's
proposed contitutional change package. (NOTE: The package
would have to go to a referendum as AKP does not have the
votes to pass it in parliament, absent major compromises to
win opposition support. The package would almost certainly
include a constitutional change to allow civilian court
juridiction over military personnel following last week's
Constitutional Court decision -- see below.) In any case,
Oyman was sure a referendum would reject the AKP package.
Oyman is basing his assessment of both the inevitability of
early elections and an AKP loss on the dire economic
situation, particularly unemployment (COMMENT: We are more
sanguine on the general state of the economy, but agree
continued high unemployment will be a big political problem).


3. (C) These woes in Oyman's view are complemented by AKP's
horrible record of corruption and mismanagement, especially
at the local level. Oyman recited his various recent travels
in the hinterland and his many encounters with angry
citizens. On the national level, Turkey, under AKP, is
losing its Western moorings. Forced Islamization is
threatening, and the relative international status of Turkish
women is appalling (COMMENT: There he does have a point.)
He contends one poll we also saw, which has AKP down to
roughly 30% with CHP right behind, is a harbinger of AKP's
coming electoral collapse. (COMMENT: But, in fact, other
polls tell different stories, including one last week that
pegged Erdogan's popularity holding at 40%. Many astute
non-partisan contacts, most not fans of Erdogan's style,
believe AKP could well receive another single-party
government mandate).


4. (C) Oyman appeared less confident about the "day after,"
admitting that, even if AKP loses the parliamentary majority,
it will still have a plurality. In that case, the most
likely constellation would be an AKP-MHP coalition. While
Oyman had few good things to say about the MHP, he did
believe that a coalition with the MHP would be sufficiently
diverse to block Erdogan's move toward a one-party
authoritarian system. As for the CHP, it will never form a
coalition with AKP and is thus resigned to remain the chief
opposition party. He did not hold out much hope for a CHP-MHP
coalition, and rather lamented the loss of Turkey's
traditional moderate center right and moderate left wing
poles. (i.e. the CHP, still the "moderate left" champion,
albeit one many in the Socialist International can no longer
abide, is left stranded, with the rest of the country
flocking to the "brown shirt" MHP or the "turbans" of the
AKP).


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Constitutional Court Military Ruling a CHP Victory
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5. (C) Oyman was understandably delighted with the unanimous
Constitutional Court decision the day before that tossed out
the AKP-drafted law allowing military personnel to be tried
in civilian courts (REF B). Oyman, whose party had
petitioned the court for the ruling, felt the law, in terms
of it constitutionality and the manner it had been sprung on
the Parliament, richly deserved its fate. He went on about
AKP's anti-military campaign being another source of both its
dropping popularity, and the general sense of discord and
unease in the country. (COMMENT: What "uneased" us about
Oyman's recitation was his rejection of any possiblity that
the military might have over stepped its bounds with
Ergenekan and various just-revealed "coup-exercise" plans.
Essentially, in his view, the enemy (the military) of the
CHP's enemy, AKP, is naturally the CHP's friend. No wonder
the Socialist International shakes its head at these CHP
guys.)

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Foreign Policy
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6. (C) Foreign policy is in Oyman's view another area of AKP
failure. He, of course, castigated the Armenian protocols in
harsh language especially after the Armenian Constitutional
Court's decision to endorse them, which opened the door to
paranoid Turkish fears about being tricked by the wily
Armenians. Oyman's alternative: Promising Turkish steps on
a case-by-case basis in response to Armenian concessions.
Ditto his criticism of the AKP's Kurdish outreach, both
within Turkey and in Northern Iraq. More to our liking, he
lamented the breakdown in relations with Israel and the AKP
embrace of some of the Middle East's more unsavory actors.
Along lines similar to REF A, he asserted that AKP diplomacy
was overextended and failed to consummate substantially any
of its ambitious goals.


7. (C) Naturally, the CHP wants the best possible relations
with the U.S. (COMMENT: Despite panning many of the things we
like about the AKP foreign policy.) He echoed in more
concrete terms CHP Party chief Baykal's desire to visit
Washington in the spring. But, as we told Oyman, Baykal's
expectations -- or perhaps preconditions -- for a visit, such
as time with the President, will be very hard to deliver.

Jeffrey

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