TURKISH MILITARY TAKES A POUNDING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000120

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2015
TAGS: MOPS PINR PINS PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH MILITARY TAKES A POUNDING WITH
"SLEDGEHAMMER"

REF: ANKARA 107

Classified By: A/POL Counselor Jeremiah Howard for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary: "Taraf" newspaper broke the newest in a
chain of alleged anti-democratic military plots on January
20, a day before the Constitutional Court overturned a 2009
law extending civilian court jurisdiction to military
officers (REFTEL). The newspaper claimed the Turkish First
Army plotted to overthrow the Justice and Development Party
(AKP) government in 2003. Dripping in lurid details of false
flag bombings of mosques, deliberate plans to provoke an
armed conflict with Greece, the detention of thousands of
Turkish citizens, and the establishment of a new government
by the military, the story has swiftly become the primary
topic of discussion and speculation among the political class
and on the street. Although the existence of contingency
planning for political intervention by the military is
likely, the timing and details of the Taraf release suggest
that some of the evidence has been tampered with, fueling
counter-accusations of a political agenda on the part of the
accusers. End Summary.



2. (U) This newest allegation claims that when he was
Commander of the First Army in Istanbul, General Cetin Dogan
drafted a 5000-page plan code-named "Sledgehammer" (Balyoz)
in 2003 to overthrow the AKP government. In the plan, the
military would conduct operations to sow chaos among the
Turkish populace -- including bombing mosques and provoking
the Greek armed forces to shoot down Turkish aircraft over
the Aegean Sea. The resulting chaos would provide
justification for the military to first declare a state of
emergency, then implement martial law, and then take over the
government. The plan envsioned the detention of an estimated
200,000 Turkish citizens, including named journalists (to be
detained in Istanbul sports arenas); the appointment of a
government of specifically-named centrist politicians and
businessmen; and assignment of military staff to the
leadership of banks and ministries. The new administration
would then allow the military to govern by proxy, and would
then seize the assets of minority foundations, foreign
businesses, and companies that had been privatized in the
past decade.


3. (U) Dogan, now retired, confirmed to the press the
existence of military documents focused on internal security,
but denied they constituted an action plan. He asserted the
documents were the result of a hypothetical tabletop exercise
devised to develop possible military responses to political
instability in Turkey. The authority to draft such a
document, he claimed, was the Protocol on Cooperation for
Security and Public Order (EMASYA). Normally employed in
urban areas where the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is
active, EMASYA allows the military to conduct
intelligence-gathering operations without consulting civilian
authorities. Dogan said, however, the original document had
been tampered with. He claimed the elements calling for the
destruction of mosques and provocation of war with Greece are
"slanders," which had been edited into the original
documents.


4. (C) Several military contacts have declined to speak to us
about Sledgehammer, but retired Turkish Navy Captain Yilmaz
Aklar, who had served in the Turkish General Staff's policy
and plans division prior to his retirement, told us the most
sensational claims about the plot could not be true.
Specifically, it would not have been within the mandate of
the First Army to draft an action plan for the entirety of
the military forces, and the document being presented as such
is outside the capabilities of the First Army alone. First
Army would not have had, for example, the authority to order
Turkish fighters to dogfight with Greek fighters. Second,
Aklar expressed doubt the First Army would have been able to
develop a list of individuals to serve in a new government on
its own or carry out a change of government from Istanbul.
He also noted that many of the names listed as officials in a
"new government" were, strikingly, those floated by the media
during the recent AKP closure case of persons who might serve
in a care-taker government subsequent to AKP's banning.


5. (SBU) Rifat Hisarcikoglu, a prominent businessman with
potential political ambitions who was to be prime minister
according to the Taraf list, told the press he was unaware of
the plot and termed it "treason." Similarly, Bayram Meral, a
veteran labor leader and member of parliament for the
opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) who was allegedly
the military's pick for Labor Minister, told us the plot was
"fictitious and ugly." TGS Chief Ilker Basbug for his part
reacted angrily during a military ceremony covered by the
media on January 24. He declared the Taraf report false,
promised the military would cooperate in any investigation
into the alleged plan, but warned again that the military's
patience has its limits. (NOTE: Sledgehammer is the latest
in a series of sensational allegations of military
interventions in the political sphere against which Basbug
has spoken out repeatedly, most recently in December, calling
them part of a systematic asymmetric campaign to erode public
support for the military.)


6. (C) Aklar also echoed the refrain the TGS has adopted in
the face of each new allegation: The stories are aimed at
tarnishing the military's image and weakening public support
for what had been the country's most respected institution.
He questioned the timing of the report and asserted it is the
latest step in AKP's campaign to create popular support to
amend the 1982 constitution, which was drafted by the
government that took power following the 1980 military coup.
He criticized the military's clumsy handling of this most
recent allegation, lamenting that the statement the TGS
issued was long-winded and led to more questions than answers
from the man on the street. He assessed the TGS is losing
the battle for hearts and minds in the court of public
opinion and predicted the AKP would succeed in amending the
constitution. He dismissed any possibility of the military
taking action against the government, asserting that "this is
a thing of the past."


7. (C) COMMENT: Some of the Sledgehammer speculation put
forward by pro-government newspapers is clearly not
plausible. The pro-government daily Zaman's attempt to
connect the 2003 bombings of two synagogues, an HSBC bank,
and the British Consulate in Istanbul to Sledgehammer
planning -- despite no evidence to support such an allegation
having arisen during the trial of the ringleader, Luay
al-Saqqa -- is an example of the ludicrous claims made by
mainstream newspapers. However, the allegation that the
military had a plan that could be enacted to force AKP from
power is not implausible. The military staff fingered in the
Sledgehammer allegation were all highly placed in 1997, when
a coalition government led by the Islamist Prime Minister,
Necmettin Erbakan, was forced from power by
military-engineered political manipulations. That veterans
of the 1997 intervention would prepare a contingency plan to
dispense with a similarly ideological government is not at
all far-fetched. However, the existence of such a plan does
not necessarily imply intent to execute it, let alone intent
to bring harm to average Turks in the process. What is clear
to us: These sensational allegations are generating doubts
among a broad cross-section of Turkish society about the
military's constitutionally endorsed secular guardianship
role at a time when the Islamist AKP is paving the way for a
referendum on an, as yet, undefined package of constitutional
amendments.
Jeffrey

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