Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10ADDISABABA387
2010-02-24 12:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: PM MELES-CODELS TALK FRANKLY ABOUT

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM MOPS ECON EINV EAGR SO AF ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000387 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM MOPS ECON EINV EAGR SO AF ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PM MELES-CODELS TALK FRANKLY ABOUT
DEMOCRACY, ECONOMICS, MORE

ADDIS ABAB 00000387 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000387

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM MOPS ECON EINV EAGR SO AF ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: PM MELES-CODELS TALK FRANKLY ABOUT
DEMOCRACY, ECONOMICS, MORE

ADDIS ABAB 00000387 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Members of Codels Durbin and Meeks asked PM
Meles on February 17 about the status of Ethiopia's
democracy, prospects for food self-sufficiency, differences
between Chinese and U.S. approaches to economic assistance
and investment, the high numbers of Ethiopian medical
professionals who have relocated to the U.S., and security
challenges on the Somalia border. Meles straightforwardly
replied that Ethiopia's 90-plus opposition parties
demonstrate a lack of a coherent opposition and hence the
immaturity of its democracy; that Ethiopia cannot develop its
agricultural resources without massive foreign input; that
China's influence in Ethiopia is growing dramatically because
China offers serious assistance in building infrastructure;
that Ethiopia is trying to retain its primary care medical
professionals rather than the specialists who find better
offers overseas; and that Ethiopia combines strong defensive
measures with religious and ethnic tolerance in an effort to
keep religious extremists at bay along the Somalia border.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Codels Durbin and Meeks met jointly with Ethiopian
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi for 90 minutes on February 17 in
his Addis Ababa office. Four members of Congress joined
Charge John Yates in the meeting: Senator Dick Durbin,
Senator Sherrod Brown, Congressman Gregory Meeks, and
Congressman Melvin Watt. Gebretensae Gebremichael, senior
advisor to the PM, also participated as did P/E counselor.


Meles: Elections Pose Threat to Constitutional Order
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Noting the vibrant two-party system in the U.S.,
Congressman Watt asked after the state of Ethiopia's
democratic development. The PM replied that "multiparty
democracy is a work-in-progress in Ethiopia." He said the
existence of 90-plus opposition parties is not a sign of
strength but of extreme divisions within a political class

that is still at an early stage of its evolution. He alleged
that a key difference between Ethiopian and American politics
is that some of the opposition parties in Ethiopia oppose the
Constitution and, if elected, would work to change it in
fundamental ways. As a result, he added, "political debate
in Ethiopia is more heated and the outcome of elections is
more far-reaching than in the U.S." Notwithstanding these
difficulties in engagement between the parties, he concluded,
"we are moving the right direction."


Ethiopia Trying to Hold the Line on Food Insecurity
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Congressman Watt asked why Ethiopia cannot replicate
its great success in growing and exporting coffee in order to
support its people with a vibrant agricultural sector. Meles
replied that Ethiopia's record in this regard was a qualified
success in that its population has doubled since the 1980s
but the number of food insecure people has not changed. He
said the southwest of the country has been receiving adequate
rain and has greatly increased productivity by use of
improved seeds and other modernizations whereas other areas
have not received adequate rain in recent years and that's
where the problem of food insecurity is acute. He said
massive investment in these "environmentally degraded" areas
is needed, adding that "the international donor community has
not been as forthcoming as we had hoped, although the Obama
initiative has us hoping again."

China: Hard to Beat Free Money, But U.S. Investors Welcome to
Try
--------------
--------------


5. (SBU) Senator Durbin asked the PM about Ethiopia's
economic relations with China and whether there were concerns
about long-term impacts of relying heavily on Chinese
largesse. Congressman Meeks asked whether the Chinese model
has included capacity building and job-creation for Ethiopia.
Meles replied that "China is alone in doing infrastructure
work in Africa and people feel they have no choice" but to
accept China's outreach. He said China has extended $1.5

ADDIS ABAB 00000387 002.2 OF 002


billion in credit for expansion of Ethiopia's telecom network
and extended billions more in credit for construction of
roads. He acknowledged that terms of these soft loans
usually include provisions that Chinese companies will do
much of the work involved but justified the arrangements on
the grounds that "they are prepared to come up with the money
whereas western donors have opted out of infrastructure,"
adding that Chinese companies would win most contracts even
if openly tendered because "they do quality work cheap."



6. (SBU) Beyond infrastructure projects, Meles said China
also is intensifying private investment in Ethiopia. He sees
this investment as the logical consequence of growing incomes
in China that are making labor-intensive manufacturing
unprofitable. He expects the relocation factories, many of
them western-owned, from China to Africa to continue. He
said Ethiopia would prefer to diversify its business-partners
and pointed to rapidly increasing Indian investment as well.
Nevertheless he admitted to concerns about overreliance on
China and the disproportionate involvement of Chinese labor
in Chinese-financed projects, a concern he said he shared
with leaders across Africa. He said China had been somewhat
responsive to these concerns and has begun to arrange
training of Ethiopian workers through vocational colleges.
In the longer term, Meles expects market forces to compel
China to hire more Ethiopian workers.


7. (SBU) PM Meles urged the visiting Codel members to look at
Ethiopia, and Africa generally, as an emerging market in the
sense that India was 20 years ago. He said China and India
today see the same problems with corruption and other
obstacles that U.S. investors see, yet Indians and Chinese
invest whereas the west does not. He explained this
difference in investor perspective as the result of
experience with Chinese and Indians less risk averse because
their own national stories demonstrate that these obstacles
to not preclude serious profit. He asked the visitors to
help change the perception of Africa from one of a basket
case to an emerging economy worthy of the leveraging of
investment resources.

Ethiopia Resigned to Poaching of Medical Professionals
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Senator Brown raised the fact that the Washington,
D.C. area has 2,500 ethnic Ethiopian physicians and that the
U.S. has more ethnic Nigerian doctors than African American
doctors. He asked the PM what we should do to address this
effective subsidization of U.S. medical care by Ethiopia.
Meles was familiar with the situation and said his pragmatic
approach to the problem started with a realization that 80
percent of Ethiopia's most acute health-care cases involve
preventable diseases treatable by primary care physicians
rather than the specialists more likely to emigrate. He said
legal tools such as withholding diplomas pending completion
of required public service help mitigate the worst effects of
the doctor drain but added that Ethiopia has no real choice
but to train more physicians than needed in the hope that an
adequate number will remain in Ethiopia.

Somalia: Ethiopia Using Carrots and Sticks Along the Border
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) Senator Durbin raised Somalia, asking Meles how
Ethiopia approached the danger of fundamentalists trying to
gain a foothold in Ethiopia by playing on the ethnic and
religious associations of refugees and the cross-border
population. The PM replied that Ethiopia has in place
substantial defensive measures along the border and remains
vigilant 24 hours a day. Regarding Ethiopia's indigenous
Somali population, Meles said his government's policy is to
let the people use their own languages and courts and to
implement infrastructure improvements that will help foster a
sense of connectedness to Ethiopia.
MUSHINGI