KENYA ASSERTS ITS ROLE IN SUDAN POST-2011

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000373

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E, AF/PDPA,
IIP/G/AF, RRU-AF, DRL/RSPRING
NSC FOR MGAVIN
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2020
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC
SUBJECT: KENYA ASSERTS ITS ROLE IN SUDAN POST-2011
DISCUSSIONS

Classified By: Classified by CDA John Yates for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) During a February 1 meeting with U.S. Special Envoy
to Sudan Gration, Wetangula said that IGAD would support
President Mbeki as the AU's representative on Sudan, but that
the AU, UN, and United States must respect IGAD's historical
role in North/South peace and involve IGAD in resolving
post-2011 disputes. Wetangula proposed an IGAD Summit in
Nairobi for the end of February to debut Mbeki and establish
the mechanism for discussing post-2011 issues. He believed
settling border disputes was the top priority and that while
secession is generally undesirable, it is inevitable in Sudan
and must be accepted. End Summary.


2. (SBU) U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan General J. Scott
Gration travelled to Addis Ababa from January 27-February 2,
2010 to attend the AU Summit with the U.S. delegation.

Facilitating Post-2011 Discussions on Sudan
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3. (C) Wetangula began by outlining the historical role that
IGAD has played in Sudan's North-South peace process. He
said that the AU, UN, and other members of the international
community, including the EU, United States, and China all
looked to IGAD as the lead agency on Sudan and Somalia. IGAD
had successfully negotiated Sudan's Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA) and its two most successful pillars-a
ceasefire in place since 2003 and the formation of the
Government of Southern Sudan-have endured. Still, he said,
hurdles remain.


4. (C) Special Envoy Gration asked Foreign Minister
Wetangula how IGAD's efforts would fit in with those of
President Thabo Mbeki on behalf of the African Union and
solicited his ideas on how to build an effective region and
international team to begin post-2011 discussions in Sudan.
Wetangula replied that IGAD would support Mbeki, but that his
portfolio did not go into enough detail on the CPA, and that
he must work in unison with IGAD and others to resolve
North-South border disputes, organize the referenda, manage
post-referenda issues, and above all, ensure that Sudan does
not slip back into conflict.


5. (C) Wetangula also noted that the UN had recently made
two high-profile appointments with Gambari and Menkerios, and
that U.S. Special Envoy Gration, representing a world
superpower and partner in conflict resolution, was also given
a role that takes a holistic view of Sudan (Note: Ibrahim
Gambari was appointed Joint Special Representative for UNAMID
and Haile Menkerios was appointed Special Representative for
Sudan. End Note). Wetangula said that these groups should
work together as a team in a horizontal leadership structure,
since "people don't like vertical arrangements." He
emphasized that because of its historical role in the CPA,
IGAD would serve as "a lead agency( a first among equals on
all CPA issues."


6. (C) Wetangula announced his intention to host an IGAD
summit in Nairobi in mid-February, inviting the NCP and SPLM,
the U.S. Special Envoy, and high-level leaders from the UN,
AU, and EU. Because the NCP tends to "make things look so
easy" and the SPLM tends to "make things look so impossible",
Wetangula was inviting the parties to give them a hearing in
front of the international community. In advance of the
summit, Wetangula planned to travel to Khartoum and Juba with
his Ethiopian counterpart, Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, to
speak to Presidents Bashir and Kiir. He said that Mbeki
would travel to Nairobi on February 4, and that he would
speak frankly to Mbeki about his role. He emphasized the
importance of the international community working together as
a team that shares information and experiences, but that
international community would be a source of dangerous
weakness if the actors did not coordinate.


ADDIS ABAB 00000373 002 OF 002


Settling Border Disputes Chief Priority
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7. (C) On the practicals of negotiating post-2011 issues,
Wetangula said the priority was to resolve border disputes
and define territories and areas of sovereignty. The best
the U.S. Special Envoy can do for the region, he said, would
be to lean on the North to define the boundaries as they were
set on 1 January 1956. Failing to settle the borders would
sow "(the seeds of tomorrow's conflict."

An Arms Race between North and South
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8. (C) Wetangula discussed the importance of a peaceful
divorce between North and South in the event of separation.
He described an arms race between North and South, and said
that Kenya had been helping the South build up its deterrence
against the North because "we in the neighborhood don't want
the South to be hopelessly weak and overrun". He added that
Kenya was also supporting capacity-building in the South,
including sending 15,000 teachers to improve schools.

Accepting Secession, Even As It
"Rings Bad Bells"
--------------

9. (C) Wetangula said that if there had been no clear
North/South divide between Arabs and Africans, he would never
accept secession. The idea of secessionist movements "rings
bad bells" in Kenya and in Africa, especially at a time when
Africa is trying to work toward greater unity. In Sudan,
however, he believed secession was inevitable, and so it must
be accepted.

Participants in Foreign Minister Wetangula Meeting:
-------------- --------------

10. (U) General J, Scott Gration, U.S. special Envoy to Sudan
Cameron Hudson, Director of Operations, Office of the U.S.
Special Envoy to Sudan
Miriam Estrin, Special Assistant to the Special Envoy, Office
of the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan
Kathryn Pongonis, Deputy Political/Economic Counselor, U.S.
Embassy Addis Ababa


11. (U) SE Gration's Office has cleared on this cable.
YATES