FORUM PR CHAIR ON CAMPAIGN STRATEGY AND TIGRAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000371

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2020
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM ET
SUBJECT: FORUM PR CHAIR ON CAMPAIGN STRATEGY AND TIGRAY
REGION

Classified By: DCM Tulinabo Mushingi for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


Summary
--------------

1. (C) Summary: Ethnic Tigrayan and opposition coalition
"Forum" leader Gebru Asrat told Poloffs the Forum is taking
its campaign message directly to the people to obviate
distortion of that message through state run media. Gebru
described the Forum's political platform as advancing
freedom, promoting liberal democracy versus revolutionary
democracy, creating an independent economy, and improving the
quality of education. Gebru also reported instances of
harassment directed toward electoral candidates, some of whom
have resigned. Gebru said he complained to the National
Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE),with no results. Arena
Tigray members are working to advance the Forum's political
agenda under difficult circumstances, but are determined to
make a mark in the political arena. Even if Arena Tigray or
Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ) were to win one
national level seat in Tigray, which is the traditional
stronghold of the TPLF, it would be a tremendous upset for
the ruling party. End Summary.



2. (C) Poloffs met on 4 February with Gebru Asrat, a member
of the Arena Tigray opposition party and former President of
Tigray Region, to discuss the political strategy and progress
in candidate registration of Arena Tigray and the Forum.
Arena Tigray is a member of the Ethiopian Federal Democratic
Unity Forum (Forum) and Gebru is the Forum's Public Relations
Chairperson.


Persistence in the Face of
Difficult Political Environment
--------------

3. (C) Gebru told Poloffs the Forum does not expect free and
fair elections, but decided to continue to run in the
national elections. Gebru said it was time for Arena Tigray
as part of the Forum to establish itself in the Tigray
Region. Despite narrowing political space and inadequate
funding, the Forum is finding ways to disseminate its
message. According to Gebru, the party is meeting with its
supporters face to face to ensure the party's message is
received properly.



4. (C) Gebru told Poloffs that opposition parties do not have
adequate airtime in the State-run media and said he had "no
trust in the Ethiopian media." Gebru said he believed
holding meetings, distributing publications, and utilizing
independent media was the best way to spread the Forum's
political message. The Forum has already distributed roughly
10,000 pamphlets containing the Forum political Manifesto in
Tigrinia language in Tigray region. Gebru said the party
often relies on the sympathy of printers who will donate
print runs free of charge.


Campaign Finance and Fundraising Efforts
--------------

5. (C) Gebru told Poloffs the National Electoral Board of
Ethiopia (NEBE) informed Arena Tigray by letter on February 2
of its ten percent allotment of campaign finance funds
totaling 8,000 ETB (USD 588). Each opposition party making
up the Forum will be entitled to a similar ten percent share
of campaign funding, plus potential additional amounts based
on the number of seats they have in Parliament and the number
of female candidates they field. Gebru explained that
because Arena Tigray is a two year-old party, it does not
have seats in Parliament, and has not yet recruited a
significant number of female candidates, so it does not
expect additional financing from the NEBE. According to
Gebru, a small diaspora in the United States and in Europe
provides the Forum member parties with "thousands of dollars"
to use in the campaign. He did not specify an exact amount.
Gebru told Poloffs that Arena Tigray has diaspora support in
Virginia, Washington, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Illinois as
well as in Norway. Arena Tigray is developing a website in
Chicago to introduce the party to the diaspora community
there. He added that Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ),
also a Forum member, has the greatest number of diaspora
chapters with a total of 17, and by implication, the greatest
ability to raise funds from the diaspora. Gebru said the

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Forum plans to fundraise together overseas as well as
domestically before the elections but hasn't yet done so.
The Forum has already printed donation cards in denominations
of 10, 50 and 100 ETB for the joint Forum domestic
fundraising effort.


Forum Policy Objectives
--------------

6. (C) Gebru told Poloffs the Forum's political campaign
includes promoting the necessity of freedom, which would
allow people the choice of party membership, as well as
liberal democracy, which would allow equal opportunity for
all party members to participate freely in politics. The
party also advocates for an economy that is not solely
controlled by the state and is focused on improving the
unemployment rate, reducing inflation, mitigating the
consequences of droughts, and focusing on urban development.
The Forum's political agenda also seeks to improve the
quality of education by removing political activities from
schools.


Arena Tigray Registers Forum Candidates
in EPRDF "Home Turf"
--------------

7. (C) According to Gebru, Arena Tigray and UDJ are the only
two Forum parties that will field candidates for the Forum in
Tigray region. The two parties are allotted a total of 190
candidate spots, 152 for regional parliament and 38 for the
national parliament. Gebru told Poloffs that so far Arena
Tigray has filled 33 candidate spots for the national
parliament and 82 for the regional parliament, while the UDJ
has filled one candidate spot for the national parliament and
two for the regional parliament. The Arena Tigray candidates
are responsible for arranging meetings and for passing out
publications on behalf of the Forum in the local Tigray
woredas. Gebru is registered as a candidate for the national
parliament in Mekele woreda.


Reported Harassment of Electoral Candidates in Tigray
-------------- --------------

8. (C) Gebru reported harassment of the Forum's Arena Tigray
electoral candidates in the Tigray Region. Federal police
allegedly stopped four candidates in Tekeze woreda and told
them "not to run" in the elections and confiscated and burned
their identification cards, rendering their chance to
register null. The four candidates resigned. In Axum in
central Tigray, Gebru said that federal police went to the
house of a female candidate named Worknesh, who then resigned
after they harassed her. Gebru also recounted that federal
police visited a Muslim candidate at his home in Humera zone,
which is in Northern Ethiopia on the border with Eastern
Sudan, and confiscated his identification card. The
candidate resigned from running in the elections. Gebru said
he complained to the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia
(NEBE),with no results. When asked if he registered his
complaints with the Joint Council of Political Parties
established by the Electoral Code of Conduct, Gebru said he
was not aware of joint councils on the regional level and did
not report the instances to the Joint Council in Addis Ababa.
Gebru told Poloffs that Arena Tigray members, however, have
not encountered problems with voter registration and the
party is pushing its constituency to register to vote.



9. (C) Comment: Arena Tigray members are working to advance
the Forum's political agenda under difficult circumstances.
Although Gebru appeared discouraged by the narrowing
political space and alleged harassment of electoral
candidates, he seemed determined to make a mark in the
political arena. Even if Arena Tigray or UDJ were to win one
national level seat in Tigray, which is the traditional
stronghold of the TPLF, it would be a tremendous upset for
the ruling party. Gebru told Poloffs he did not want to
focus on the reported harassment, but instead wanted to focus
on the Forum's political strategy and policy objectives.
Gebru recounted his days as a fighter against the Derg and
told Poloffs that "if there is a will among the people, the
people will support you."
YATES