ETHIOPIA: ASD VERSHBOW AND GOE DISCUSS REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000176

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS MARR YE SU SO ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ASD VERSHBOW AND GOE DISCUSS REGIONAL
SECURITY AND BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP

Classified By: CDA John Yates for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

Summary
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1. (C) During separate January 25 meetings, visiting
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security
Affairs Ambassador Alexander Vershbow discussed regional
issues and bilateral relations with Minister of Foreign
Affairs Seyoum Mesfin, Minister of Defense Siraj Fegessa, and
Chief of Defense General Samora Yenus. Seyoum warned ASD
Vershbow that if Somalia Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) President Sheikh Sharif collapses "there is no other
option." The U.S. and other interested parties, he said,
must urge Sharif to step up his efforts to reach out to
Somali moderates willing to join his government, specifically
al-Sunnah Wal Jama'a (ASWJ),which he said was the most
effective force opposing al-Shabaab, and to engage more with
Puntland President Farole. Seyoum and Siraj noted the need
for greater financial assistance to the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) to support TFG capacity-building and enable
payment of security forces. Seyoum and Samora requested U.S.
support for transferring the African Union Mission in Somalia
(AMISOM) to UN authority. Seyoum warned that the increased
movement of extremists from the Arabian peninsula to the Horn
of Africa was having a destabilizing effect, and that
Sudanese government was irresponsibly continuing to pursue a
"divide and conquer" policy toward the south while refusing
to acknowledge the likelihood of secession. End summary.


2. (SBU) Visiting Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow met with
Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin on January 25 for 60 minutes,
and met jointly with Minister of Defense Siraj Fegessa and
Chief of Defense Samora Yenus. Seyoum was joined by MFA
Americas Director Tebeje Berhe Shook and Assistant Spokesman
Wahide Belay. Siraj and Samora were joined by Foreign
Liaison Officer Brigadier General Hassan. The U.S. was
represented by Charge John Yates, OSD African Affairs
Principal Director Catherine Wiesner, AFRICOM Deputy Director
for Plans Rear Admiral (Ret.) James Hart, U.S. Defense
Attache Col. Bradley Anderson, Col. Saul Bracero of OSD/AFR,
Special Assistant to the ASD Dr. Anika Binnendijk, and PolOff
Skye Justice (notetaker).

TFG Must Hasten Outreach to Moderate Allies
--------------


3. (C) Foreign Minister Seyoum told ASD Vershbow the crisis
in neighboring Somalia is increasingly international in
nature, with extremist groups - including al-Shabaab - now
controlled by foreign fighters. Asked what immediate actions
the international community should take to promote stability
in Somalia, Seyoum responded that on the political front, the
TFG must be urged to reach out to moderates willing to join
its ranks and bring them into government. Seyoum and Siraj
identified specifically ASWJ as the most effective opposant
to al-Shabaab. According to Seyoum, Puntland President
Abdirahman Mohamud Farole, who recently visited Addis Ababa,
is ready to work more closely with the TFG but "has concerns
that must be addressed," and President Sheikh Sharif has not
reached out to him. Seyoum added that while Sharif has
brought many moderates into his government, others would
respond if he reached out and he must be urged to act more
quickly. Samora emphasized that the TFG has significant
problems to overcome. He stated that service delivery was a
"big problem" for the TFG because they have not established
government institutions below the ministerial level. Samora
also noted that Puntland was becoming more stable and
emphasized the need for capacity building.


4. (C) On the security front, Seyoum and Samora said
international partners must bolster efforts to build the
TFG's capacity. Noting that the TFG is training troops, as
are Ethiopia and Djibouti, Seyoum stressed that while Sharif
is "preparing action on the ground," resource constraints are
a major hurdle. Of the USD 80 million pledged at the April
2009 conference in Brussels, Sharif told Ethiopian leaders he
has only received USD 3 million, which is insufficient to pay
government and military salaries. Seyoum added that given

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increasing links between al-Shabaab and al Qaeda, the
international community must support the security
capabilities of all legitimate authorities in Somalia. He
noted some modest improvement in TFG governance, including
the preparation of a 2010 budget, but exclaimed that the
TFG's "shopping list" every week was "unbelievable." ASD
Vershbow said the U.S. agreed on the importance of building
capacity in Somaliland and Puntland, while continuing to
support Somalia as one state. Seyoum concurred but cautioned
that bad Somaliland elections could open the door to
extremists. Samora believed it was imperative to support
ASWJ because it is well organized. He further stated that if
the international community expected the TFG to succeed,
donors would have to help build capacity in Mogadishu and
then support TFG expansion.

Requests U.S. Support for UN Peacekeeping Mission
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5. (C) Seyoum and Samora stressed that Ethiopia believes
AMISOM is necessary to maintain security in Somalia, and that
more African countries would be willing to contribute troops
if it was converted to a UN mission. Samora said most
African countries will not be willing to send troops to
Somalia until the mission is transitioned because "the UN
pays better." Seyoum requested USG assistance in raising
this issue at the UN Security Council, and said it would be a
topic of discussion among IGAD countries on the sidelines of
the upcoming African Union Summit.

Greater Movement of Extremists from Arabia to Horn
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6. (C) Discussing Yemen, Seyoum raised the GoE's concern that
greater numbers of extremists are moving between the Horn of
Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. In particular, movement of
extremists into Somaliland and a resulting destabilization
there would have a huge impact on the Horn. Seyoum said the
GoE is actively engaging the Somaliland government to counter
this threat, and noted that the U.S. military presence in
Djibouti was a stabilizing factor the GoE greatly
appreciates.


7. (C) Seyoum noted that foreign actors are fueling the
crisis in Yemen, particularly Iran and Hezbollah. He added
that Shiites from moderate Gulf countries, and even Europe,
are also funding extremists in Yemen. ASD Vershbow responded
that the U.S. and UK, working with the major Gulf Cooperation
Council countries, are trying to assist Yemen by shutting
down these avenues of support and help it conduct the
political and economic reforms needed to overcome the crisis.
This was the purpose of the January 27 London meeting on
Yemen.

Khartoum's "Divide and Conquer" Strategy
--------------


8. (C) On Sudan, Seyoum said the Khartoum government
continues to pursue a "divide and conquer" strategy, and is
engaging in back-room discussions and bribery in an attempt
to split the SPLM. Khartoum believes an "old guard" that is
committed to Sudanese unity, as well as certain strong
leaders (notably the SPLM Foreign Minister and Secretary
General) can be broken off from the committed secessionists,
thereby preventing southern independence. The GoE, Seyoum
said, continues to urge both north and south to begin
planning for a potential breakup, and specifically for the
movement of people that would occur after a split. In
response to a question from ASD Vershbow on whether Sudan's
agreement with Chad would hold up, Seyoum said it was
difficult to say because of the actions of "invisible
actors." However, he said Khartoum had assured the GoE it
wouldn't provoke Chad, and would ignore provocation from
N'Djamena to the maximum extent possible. Seyoum predicted
there would be a demand for peacekeepers in southern Sudan,
but stressed that for the time being, the international
community must speak with one voice to insist the CPA is
fulfilled and especially to make unity attractive for the
south.


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9. (C) Samora stated emphatically that Ethiopia could live
with "whatever Sudan decides - we just do not want them to go
to war." Samora seemed to be looking at the upcoming
Sudanese referendum through the Ethiopian/Eritrean lens with
the understanding that war could have a destabilizing effect
in Ethiopia. Samora admitted that Ethiopia was not in a
position to influence Sudan but that they had good relations
with both the north and the south. He also admitted having
great access and relations with the Sudan People's Liberation
Army (SPLA). Samora made a point to discuss how the SPLA
needed to be reorganized. He stated that the SPLA was top
heavy, carrying nearly 550 general officers and providing
more than 200 security guards for each minister.


10. (U) This message has been cleared by ASD Vershbow.

YATES