Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10ABUJA75
2010-01-22 14:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

YAR'ADUA'S HOLD ON POWER GROWS TENUOUS

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR NI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000075 

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/22
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NI
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA'S HOLD ON POWER GROWS TENUOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000075

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/22
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NI
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA'S HOLD ON POWER GROWS TENUOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (C) President Yar'Adua's recent BBC interview showed that he is
alive, but reinforced doubts about his ability to resume
presidential powers. The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has
become divided over whether Yar'Adua should hand over power to Vice
President Goodluck Jonathan. Many Senators have grown concerned
over Yar'Adua's health and summoned Secretary to the Government of
the Federation (SGF) Mahmud Yayale Ahmed to the National Assembly
January 21 to brief them behind closed doors. The SGF reportedly
revealed nothing new at this briefing. A presidential advisor
commented that Yar'Adua's brief interview, while genuine, showed
that Yar'Adua remained weak. The delay by Yar'Adua's inner circle
to hand over power officially to his Vice President may have tilted
the balance of power towards the latter. Former heads of state
Ibrahim Babangida and Olusegun Obasanjo will likely wield
considerable behind-the-scenes influence as political jockeying
continues in the PDP. END SUMMARY.



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YAR'ADUA SPEAKS

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2. (SBU) The Nigerian media provided extensive coverage of
President Yar'Adua's British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) radio
interview, recorded January 11 and broadcast the following day. In
the interview, which lasted 86 seconds, Yar'Adua weakly proclaimed
"At the moment, I am undergoing treatment, and I'm getting better
from the treatment. I hope that very soon there will be tremendous
progress, which will allow me to get back home." He said he had
remained in constant contact with the Vice President and later
wished the Nigerian Super Eagles national football team success in
the African Cup of Nations tournament in Angola.



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SGF TESTIFIES BEHIND CLOSED DOORS

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3. (C) Jonathan Mark, Special Assistant to (and son of) Senate
President David Mark confided to PolCouns on January 20 that many

Senators had grown concerned over the President's health and
prolonged absence. He said his father told him that he shut off
debate in the Senate over the President's health, strictly because
he considered the Senate's powers over the situation to be
circumscribed under the Constitution. Instead, the Senators
summoned SGF Yayale to appear January 21 before the Senate. While
he testified behind closed doors, several Senators reportedly later
told the media that Ayale did not add any value to what they
already knew.




4. (C) Separately, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairperson
Jibril Aminu told PolCouns that Yar'Adua's radio interview did
little to dispel concerns, noting that a videotaped interview would
have been more effective had the President been in position to
grant one. He conjectured that Yar'Adua's poor physical appearance
must have precluded such an option. Nonetheless, he expressed hope
that Yar'Adua's illness would permit eventual recovery. He
discounted the need for a formal hand-over of powers, insisting
that Vice President Jonathan had already begun to exercise
presidential powers in all but name. He cited the Vice President's

ABUJA 00000075 002 OF 003


ordering of the deployment of troops to Jos to quell violence as an
example of his willingness to exercise powers normally reserved to
the Commander in Chief.



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CABINET MINISTERS SHARPLY DIVIDED

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5. (C) Jonathan Mark revealed that the Federal Executive Council
(Nigeria's expanded Cabinet) had grown sharply divided over whether
Yar'Adua should hand over power to Vice President Jonathan. He
listed Minister of Agriculture Abba Sayyadi Ruma, a prominent
Yar'Adua loyalist, as favoring the status quo, while the SGF leads
the group advocating immediate hand over. Mark predicted that the
"status quo" could not continue beyond mid-February. By then, he
said, either one side or the other must "give in."



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DOUBTS PERSIST

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6. (C) Presidential Advisor Sani Musa told PolCouns January 15 that
persistent rumors of Yar'Adua's death (including that he had died
as long ago as December 10) and the march that unfolded in Abuja on
January 13 to protest the President's prolonged absence had forced
the Yar'Adua inner circle to arrange the radio interview. Despite
doubts expressed by some Nigerians about the interview's
authenticity, Musa said he was convinced that the voice belonged to
Yar'Adua. Musa, who had just returned from a visit to former
President Ibrahim Babangida in Minna to extend condolences over the
death of former First Lady Maryam Babangida, said that Babangida
also told him that he considered the voice to be authentic.




7. (C) Musa stated his conviction that Yar'Adua had only a short
time to live and could not resume his presidential duties even if
he returned alive to Nigeria. He disclosed the delivery of
expensive medical equipment recently to the Presidential Villa
along with plans to arrange for medical personnel from Saudi Arabia
to travel to Abuja to oversee continued treatment. He had heard
that Yar'Adua was scheduled to return January 10 to Abuja, but this
event did materialize because the inner circle first wanted
Saudi-based doctors to verify the adequacy of arrangements for
Yar'Adua's follow-on treatment at the Villa.

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FORMER HEADS OF STATE KEY TO SUCCESSION

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8. (C) Musa remarked that failure by Yar'Adua and his inner circle
to hand over power to Vice President Jonathan as Acting President
not only showed their distrust of the Vice President to handle
presidential powers but their lack of willingness to abide by
Constitutional provisions. Such delay in handing over power in an
orderly way, he asserted, has caused the balance of power to switch
from the President's inner circle to the Vice President. Had they
acted earlier, he said, the President's closest advisors could have
extracted concessions over who would remain in the Cabinet and who
would become the new Vice President. Now that a hand-over to
Jonathan appeared all but inevitable, the incumbent Vice President
enjoyed the upper hand on such issues. He predicted that Jonathan
would consult widely and pay especially close attention to advice
received from two former heads of state, Babangida and Obasanjo.

ABUJA 00000075 003 OF 003



9. (SBU) According to local press reports, Obasanjo attempted
unsuccessfully to convince a January 14-15 meeting of the People's
Democratic Party (PDP) Board of Trustees (BOT) that Jonathan should
become Acting President immediately. Obasanjo reportedly attracted
only the support of two BOT members.



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COMMENT

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10. (C) President Yar'Adua's radio interview did little to dispel
concerns over his failing health. If anything, his weakened voice
reinforced the perception that he will not return any time soon to
exercise presidential powers. Political jockeying continues, with
Vice President Jonathan exercising more "de facto"
responsibilities. The FEC, Senate, and ruling PDP have tried to
portray satisfaction over the "status quo," but many recognize that
Yar'Adua's hold on power has grown increasingly untenable.
Obasanjo reportedly lost the latest battle within his party, but he
and IBB will almost certainly wield considerable clout over who
becomes the new Vice President if Goodluck Jonathan officially
assumes presidential power. END COMMENT.




11. (U) Embassy coordinated this telegram with ConGen Lagos.
SANDERS