PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA RETURNS TO NIGERIA: WHAT NEXT?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000205

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STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/24
TAGS: PGOV OVIP PINR MCAP PREL SOCI KDEM KPAO NI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA RETURNS TO NIGERIA: WHAT NEXT?

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (S) Nigerian President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's secretive return to
Abuja at roughly 0230 February 24 created new uncertainty over who
has actual charge of Nigerian Government (GON) decision-making, and
raised new concerns about a military intervention. The absence of
any images of Yar'Adua's return compounds the mystery. The
February 9 non-binding resolutions designating Vice President
Jonathan as Acting President stipulated that he would retain that
capacity until Yar'Adua submitted a written declaration to the
Senate President and House Speaker that he was fit for duty. An
embarrassed six-person Cabinet team returned from Saudi Arabia
mid-morning February 24. Although today's weekly Wednesday Cabinet
(Federal Executive Council -- FEC) meeting was cancelled, Jonathan
summoned ministers for a 1400 meeting, of which we are seeking
details. The Cabinet is apparently still divided along regional
lines. See paragraph 2 for key questions or triggers that Mission
will be watching over the next few days to identify the center of
gravity of power and whether it pulls toward Yar'Adua, Jonathan,
the military, or a Northern group. This is an inter-agency
telegram. END SUMMARY.



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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS/TRIGGERS AND ANSWERS

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2. (S/NF) To sort through the complex and evolving situation,
Mission Nigeria includes the following questions, and possible
answers, regarding the current situation:



- Q. How do we expect Acting President Jonathan to react to
Yar'Adua's return?



- A. Although Jonathan has exhibited some authority in the past
couple of weeks, we view Jonathan as conservative, cautious, and
probably unwilling to make a principled stand against Yar'Adua's
cronies. The postponement of the February 24 FEC meeting, for
example, may have benefited Yar'Adua's supporters who dread a
decision on the President's health, but it also gave Jonathan an
excuse to avoid the awkward choice of sitting in the Chairperson's
seat or returning to his former place as Vice President. Mission
expects Jonathan to assume a lower profile in the next few days,
angling behind-the-scenes for strong statements from elder
statesmen, senior officials, and foreign partners to shore up his
position but not doing anything brash. If challenged to hand back
power to Yar'Adua, Mission suspects that he may request to see the
President first and verify whether the National Assembly and the
Cabinet concur with any decision to restore Yar'Adua.



- Q. What does the "Katsina clique" seek to gain from bringing back
President Yar'Adua?



- A. The small group surrounding Yar'Adua appears focused on
maintaining their grip on power for as long as possible, and
probably view Yar'Adua's return to Nigeria as the only means to
stave off an immediate declaration of permanent incapacitation from

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the Cabinet. The clique probably has limited expectations that
they can withstand pressure to relinquish power forever, but they
clearly believe that they can sustain their charade for a few more
days or weeks. Hoping beyond hope, the group seems to believe that
they can issue edicts from the Villa, continue to line their
pockets from the government coffers, and remove ministers and
officials they deem disloyal, while maintaining a possibly
unwilling Yar'Adua "under lock and key."



- Q. What is Yar'Adua's current capacity to govern?



- A. Previous reporting suggests that President Yar'Adua is both
physically and cognitively incapable of running Nigeria. He may
have a limited ability to gesture or briefly communicate with
family and medical staff, but this is not sufficient to resume
responsibilities as head of state.



- Q. Where is the military?



- A. Thus far, the military remains on the sidelines, with senior
leaders publicly and privately counseling more junior officers and
troops to avoid any involvement in political affairs, except if
absolutely necessary to restore order. Mission has detected no
unusual movements but cannot completely rule out the possibility of
a coup, especially if the political vacuum continues for another
week or more.



- Q. What role will the Federal Executive Council and/or the
National Assembly assume in the coming days?



- A. Probably even more so than either Acting President Jonathan or
Yar'Adua's supporters, the Cabinet and National Assembly are likely
to emerge as the principal actors in resolving the crisis. Their
actions will either bolster Jonathan and force the "Katsina clique"
to show their cards, or they will give the Yar'Adua camp the green
light to continue the farce and resume control. Judging from their
past record, we would expect the National Assembly, particularly
the Senate, to give little weight to assertions that Yar'Adua
remains ready to reclaim executive power without first-hand
evidence. Moreover, both the Constitution and the National
Assembly's February 9 resolution require the Presidential Villa to
transmit a letter to the leaders of the national legislature saying
Yar'Adua is fit to rule again before they withdraw Jonathan's
Acting President privileges.



- The Cabinet, with its divisions and cast of lackluster ministers,
probably remains more open to persuasion than the legislature. FEC
members are keenly aware that their jobs are "on the line" --
depending upon which camp they side with and which camp emerges
victorious. Mission, nonetheless, judges FEC members as unlikely
to bless Yar'Adua's resumption of power sight unseen either.



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COMMENT

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3. (S) The timing of Yar'Adua's return took most of Nigeria's
political elite by surprise, despite the existence for some time of
rumors and government statements that he would soon return. Acting
President Jonathan adjusted his schedule, including a planned
February 24 nighttime meeting with the Ambassador, after learning
of Yar'Adua's impending return. The visit by the ministerial
delegation may have forced the hand of the President's "Katsina
clique," who apparently wanted to avoid the embarrassment of having
to turn aside a visit by an official delegation established by, and
comprised of, his own ministers.




4. (S) The motive for Yar'Adua's return remains unclear. Members
of his inner circle may have wanted Yar'Adua to return to Nigeria
to pass his final days, or they may have decided that their hold on
to power would be more likely if they attempted to rule the country
through proxies from the President's residence in Abuja. In any
case, his return throws greater uncertainty on the current
political situation, with power divided between a seriously-ill
President and a recently-designated Acting President. Until now,
the military has stayed on the sidelines. We will continue to
monitor the situation for any unusual movements. The next week,
particularly the next 24 to 48 hours, will remain critical for the
future of Nigeria's democracy and civilian rule. Yar'Adua's return
introduces some doubt over who is in charge of the government's
affairs. Some will demand a written declaration, as stipulated by
the National Assembly's resolutions, plus some evidence of life and
lucidity. Others may insist that Yar'Adua's mere return makes him
President again without the need for any additional formality. We
are in for several confusing days ahead and we will be looking for
evidence of all of the above as Nigerians watch in disbelief the
bizarre behavior of their putative leaders. END COMMENT.
SANDERS