Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10ABUJA161
2010-02-11 18:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE CHAIRPERSON UWAIS HOPEFUL ON

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR MARR OVIP PTER SOCI KCRM NI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 111833Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0266
INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000161 

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR OVIP PTER SOCI KCRM NI
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE CHAIRPERSON UWAIS HOPEFUL ON

REFORM

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000161

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR OVIP PTER SOCI KCRM NI
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL REFORM COMMITTEE CHAIRPERSON UWAIS HOPEFUL ON

REFORM

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (C) Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Johnnie Carson met
with Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) Chairperson and retired Chief
Justice Muhammadu Lawal Uwais February 10 to discuss electoral
reform, prospects for return to military rule, need for expanded
corruption investigations and prosecutions, and predictions for
democratic elections in Nigeria. Chief Justice Uwais said he was
energized by what he described as recent credible elections in both
Edo and Anambra States. He expressed optimism that sufficient time
remained to pull together an improved structure for the next
national election. He acknowledged strong bilateral consensus on
what needed to be done to further democracy in Nigeria. The
Ambassador, DCM, Special Assistant Cook, and PolOff (notetaker)
accompanied the Assistant Secretary to this meeting. END SUMMARY.



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DESIGNATION OF ACTING PRESIDENT

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2. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson emphasized the high regard with
which the U.S. held Nigeria, noting the country's importance beyond
its own borders, particularly in Africa. He queried the Chief
Justice on his views regarding the February 9 National Assembly
resolutions that officially designated Vice President Goodluck
Jonathan as Acting President, due to the prolonged absence of
President Yar'Adua while on medical vacation. Uwais seemed to
agree with Carson's characterization of consensus among three key
government institutions (the Senate, House of Representatives, and
State Governors' Forum) as positive in eliminating uncertainty and

delivering a strong voice for continuation of democratic
governance. Chief Justice Uwais cautioned, however, that
"Nigerians are litigious; so there is likely to be a court battle"
over the resolutions.



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MILITARY INTERVENTION NIXED

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3. (C) Chief Justice Uwais noted that the military had recently
lost some confidence in Nigeria's democratic institutions. He
asserted that, with the Vice President's new authority, "now the
military will not stage a coup; the atmosphere is not favorable to
them." He noted that "the African Union and ECOWAS (Economic
Community of West African States) are fed up with military rule."
Uwais approved of the decision by national legislators to confirm
the will of the people, who are in favor of the Vice President
taking over from the ailing, and absent, President.



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CORRUPTION A RECURRENT THREAT

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4. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson brought up concerns regarding the
adequacy of current efforts against corruption, which has eroded
public trust. He recalled how a few years ago, then Economic and

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Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chairperson Nuhu Ribadu had
taken energetic steps against corruption, but now that effort
appeared to have stalled. Chief Justice Uwais agreed that "more
must be done" to fight corruption in both government and business.
Ambassador Carson inquired about the case against former Delta
State Governor James Ibori, to which Uwais opined that "very
influential people who financed political campaigns are sacred
cows" in Nigeria and therefore do not get punished. Uwais
advocated building stronger cases against corrupt officials and
entrepreneurs. He cited monopolies in cement, rice, and fuel
imports, which behave "like the mafia." Uwais concluded that apart
from the current Central Bank Governor's efforts to clean up
domestic banks, the government is doing nothing else about
corruption.



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ELECTORAL REFORM

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5. (C) Ambassador Sanders inquired about recommendations from the
ERC that Uwais headed, while Assistant Secretary Carson noted
upbeat statements he heard from President Yar'Adua last August
regarding the President's pride in Uwais' efforts. Carson noted
that Yar'Adua had acknowledged the 2007 election that brought him
to power as a "flawed process" and had expressed hope to conduct
improved elections in 2011. Assistant Secretary Carson informed
Uwais about the recent U.S.-UK funded election assessment team,
highlighting measures that the team said could be addressed without
legislative action. Uwais said the team had erred in commenting on
legal criteria that commissioners needed to fulfill. Election law
stipulated for example that Commissioners must belong to political
parties, which, in his view, negated a key ERC recommendation on
designation of neutral Commissioners. DCM noted that changing the
law would be unlikely before June, when the five-year term expired
for the current Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
Chairperson. Uwais asserted that any changes in the law would
require two years to implement, adding that only a year and
one-half remained before the 2011 national elections.




6. (C) Chief Justice Uwais reiterated his recommendation that a
period of six months elapse between the date of elections and the
swearing-in of officials to allow sufficient time for the courts to
resolve all legal challenges. He recommended, for example, that,
if the next President were to assume office in May 2011, then the
election would need to occur by November 2010. He lamented,
however, that the much-needed election reforms would be difficult
to achieve in the time remaining, even if the National Assembly
approved legislative changes during the first quarter of this year.



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REQUEST FOR U.S. HELP

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7. (C) Chief Justice Uwais asked for U.S. support in improving the
voter registry and to computerize it. He recommended posting the
registry at polling places to allow voters to check their names and
seek any necessary corrections before the next election.



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PREDICTIONS

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8. (C) Uwais predicted that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan would
likely become the presidential candidate of the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2011 national elections. The North,
he said, would find this situation problematic, since Jonathan, a
Christian, could potentially hold the Presidency for two four-year
terms in addition to completing the remainder of the first term of
Yar'Adua, a Muslim. Such a result would run counter to the PDP
Constitution that calls for Northern and Southern politicians to
rotate control of the Presidency every two terms or eight years.



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CHRISTMAS DAY TERRORISM

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9. (C) Ambassador Carson recalled the attempted bombing by a
Nigerian citizen of a US. airliner last December 25, describing the
incident as a shock to Nigerians, who witnessed their first direct
involvement in an international terrorist attack. Chief Justice
Uwais described the suspect's behavior as out of character for
Nigerians and Muslims in general, observing that "suicide is not a
common thought in Nigeria as we value life." He continued that "We
might kill, we might be fanatics, but we do not commit suicide."
As a Muslim himself, Uwais said Islam does not approve of suicide.
He stated his view that suicide attacks would not increase here,
noting that he believed that terrorists had recruited the
individual outside the country.




10. (C) Assistant Secretary Carson asserted that 99.9 percent of
Nigerians, just like their U.S. counterparts, would never become
suicide bombers. Nonetheless, it took only one such person to
inflict damage. He encouraged Nigerian officials to raise public
awareness and speak out officially against violent extremism, which
has grown steadily in the Sahel, Somalia, and the northeast coast
of Kenya, and could spread even further on the continent.
Ambassador Carson emphasized to Uwais that no country, even
Nigeria, is immune to terrorism or influence on their citizens by
outside extremists.



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COMMENT

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11. (C) Former Chief Justice and ERC Chairperson Uwais remains a
highly respected figure in Nigerian political and social circles.
His stature lent considerable weight to the ERC, convened by
President Yar'Adua in the wake of the flawed 2007 elections. Few
figures know the country's electoral laws and its political system
as well as he does. Many of his Committee's recommendations,
including more objective selection procedures for the INEC
Chairperson, are designed to promote better implementation of
Nigeria's existing electoral laws. END COMMENT.




12. (U) Assistant Secretary Carson departed from Abuja before
having the opportunity to clear on this telegram.
SANDERS