Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10ABUJA149
2010-02-08 15:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

INCUMBENT WINS CREDIBLE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION IN ANAMBRA

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL SOCI KDEM KPAO NI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9044
OO RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #0149/01 0391531
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 081531Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0216
INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS IMMEDIATE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA IMMEDIATE 0063
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000149 

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI KDEM KPAO NI
SUBJECT: INCUMBENT WINS CREDIBLE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION IN ANAMBRA

REF: ABUJA 0116; LAGOS 0035

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000149

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI KDEM KPAO NI
SUBJECT: INCUMBENT WINS CREDIBLE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION IN ANAMBRA

REF: ABUJA 0116; LAGOS 0035

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

--------------

SUMMARY

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1. (C) Anambra State Governor Peter Obi comfortably won re-election
February 6 against a competitive field where political parties,
security forces, and, to a lesser extent, the Independent National
Election Commission (INEC) all performed credibly. U.S. Mission
observers note reports of isolated irregularities, which they
attribute to INEC capacity problems, not maliciousness. INEC
struggled with flawed voter lists and delivery of electoral
materials to polling stations on time. Legal challenges may be in
the works but are unlikely to prevail, given the clear-cut and
widely-accepted outcome. The election validated the judgment and
recommendations of the U.S.-UK-funded election assessment team (ref
a). END SUMMARY.



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CLEAR, CREDIBLE RESULTS

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2. (SBU) Governor Peter Obi of the All Progressive Grand Alliance
(APGA) won the February 6 gubernatorial election in Anambra State
with 97,843 votes, according to results released early February 7
by INEC. Finishing well behind him were former Anambra Governor
Chris Ngige and the candidate of the nationally dominant People's
Democratic Party (PDP, Chukwuma Soludo. Soludo, while complaining
of INEC's conduct and noting the possibility of a court appeal,
nevertheless, congratulated Obi on his victory, promising "You will
have my support" in serving the state.




3. (C) The finish tracked with the expectations of many observers.
Soludo was handicapped, as PDP officials acknowledged publicly
February 7, by internal disputes over the party's nomination
process (Ref B),while Obi benefitted from generally positive
reviews from major constituency groups and his status as the
incumbent, which in Nigeria means the use of state resources to

support his campaign.



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SECURITY PRESENCE DETERS VIOLENCE

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4. (C) More than 23,000 police and security personnel succeeded in
preventing any major incidents of violence or systematic
irregularities. U.S. Mission observers heard but could not confirm
reports of random bursts of gunfire and stolen ballot boxes.



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INEC'S MAJOR AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT

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ABUJA 00000149 002 OF 002



5. (C) The election, however, was marred by INEC's acute
organizational and managerial deficits. Polling stations in some
areas opened four hours late because of delayed deliveries of
electoral materials, and U.S. Mission observers saw instances where
there were fewer ballots on hand than registered voters.




6. (C) The biggest problem was with voter registration anomalies
across the state, and voter lists that did not match voter cards.
At one station visited by U.S. Mission observers, only three of 65
voters were on the list, and local residents alleged that many
other names on the list were unknown to them. Local media reported
that some prominent people were not on the lists, while Anambra
House of Assembly Speaker Anayo Nnaeme was quoted as complaining
that INEC had only 1,700 names on its lists for his ward, although
roughly 4,000 people had registered.




7. (U) According to INEC, out of 284,547 votes cast, 16,685 were
invalid. The total number of registered voters in Anamabra was
1,844,815, which meant that turnout was only 15 to 16 percent.



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COMMENT

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8. (C) Given the massive violence and fraud that devastated the
last Anambra gubernatorial election in 2006, and the highly flawed
gubernatorial election last year in Ekiti state, the generally
credible conduct and outcome of the February 6 contest has come as
a relief to many Nigerians. Fears of widespread violence,
intimidation , and that INEC might try to rig the process in favor
of the PDP candidate or of Andy Uba of the Labor Party failed to
materialize. Having at least three serious and well-funded
candidates in the field helped keep the players relatively honest,
as did the realization -- noted many times to U.S. Mission
observers and others -- that Nigeria and the world were watching
the process closely. In the Nigerian context, poorly trained INEC
staff, late delivery of electoral materials, and flawed voter rolls
are par for the course, and do not make the difference between
rigged and credible results. INEC's obvious areas for improvement
track closely with the judgments and recommendations of the
U.S.-UK-funded election assessment team (ref a). INEC's obvious
challenges in conducting a state election with such low turnout
augur badly for its ability to handle national elections. If court
cases are filed against the February 6 outcome, a default response
for Nigerian election losers, we do not expect the courts to
reverse what Nigerians are widely hailing as a clear-cut and
credible result. END COMMENT.




9. (U) Embassy Abuja and ConGen Lagos collaborated on this
telegram.
SANDERS