Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
10ABUJA137
2010-02-04 19:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
YAR'ADUA'S REMAINING SUPPORT ERODES FURTHER
how-toVZCZCXRO6948 OO RUEHPA DE RUEHUJA #0137/01 0352006 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 041926Z FEB 10 FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0192 INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE IMMEDIATE RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE RUEHJI/AMCONSUL JEDDAH IMMEDIATE 0003 RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS IMMEDIATE RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH IMMEDIATE 0003 RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA IMMEDIATE 0053
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000137
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PINR MARR PREL SOCI KPAO NI
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA'S REMAINING SUPPORT ERODES FURTHER
REF: ABUJA 0129 AND PREVIOUS
ABUJA 00000137 001.3 OF 003
CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)
-------
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000137
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PINR MARR PREL SOCI KPAO NI
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA'S REMAINING SUPPORT ERODES FURTHER
REF: ABUJA 0129 AND PREVIOUS
ABUJA 00000137 001.3 OF 003
CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Demands for President Yar'Adua to step aside continued to
mount from nearly all sections. Information and Communications
Minister Dora Akunyili distributed a memorandum at the February 3
Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting demanding that Yar'Adua
submit a hand-over letter to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan.
Senate and House contacts indicated that they would consider
initiating impeachment proceedings if Yar'Adua fails to transmit
this letter soon. Two-time former Presidential Candidate General
Muhammadu Buhari resigned from the All Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP). END SUMMARY.
--------------
FEC VENEER OF UNITY CRACKS
--------------
2. (C) Minister Akunyili confirmed to Ambassador February 4 that
she had circulated a memorandum at the February 3 FEC meeting that
called upon President Yar'Adua to hand over power to Vice President
Jonathan as Acting President. Confirming the accuracy of press
reports, she told the Ambassador that she was glad that she had
stood up to the situation. Akunyili promised to forward a copy of
her memorandum, which Embassy has not yet received.
3. (C) According to press reports, the Information Minister
circulated the document because she no longer wanted to participate
in a "charade." She argued that the President's prolonged absence
had stalled government business and led to unconstitutional
actions. She noted as examples that several Permanent Secretaries
awaited swearing-in, the previous Supreme Court Justice swore in
his successor, the Vice President ordered deployment of troops to
Jos, and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta
(MEND) opted out of the amnesty program. After receiving shouts of
protest from other Cabinet Ministers, she withdrew her memorandum,
and Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Mahmud
Yayale Ahmed personally collected copies of the document from
Cabinet members, warning them not to leak it to the media.
4. (C) Presidential Advisor Sani Musa told PolCouns February 4 that
normally a Minister would provide a copy of a document to the SGF
before the FEC meeting to circulate among Ministers in advance,
something that Akunyili had not done. He remarked that Nigerians
fully recognized that Yar'Adua was in "terrible shape." He
described the Yar'Adua Presidency as finished. Musa noted as well
that he understood that Yar'Adua had signed an undated hand-over
letter before leaving Nigeria, leaving instructions to transmit the
letter if he had not returned within two weeks. He remarked that
whoever had blocked transmittal of the letter had committed a
criminal offense.
--------------
PATIENCE OF HOUSE MEMBERS RUNNING LOW
--------------
ABUJA 00000137 002.3 OF 003
5. (C) House Army Committee Deputy Chairperson Matthew Omegara, a
Representative for the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) from
Imo State, told PolCouns and PolOffs February 3 that he and his
House colleagues have begun to lose patience over the failure of
Yar'Adua to transmit a letter to the legislature designating Vice
President Jonathan as Acting President. He recounted how House
Speaker Dimeji Bankole had delayed a vote on a resolution demanding
the hand-over letter until pro-Yar'Adua "lobbyists" changed the
minds of enough Representatives who had earlier signed a petition
supporting the resolution. While not saying directly, he implied
that money changed hands.
6. (C) Speaker Bankole, Omegara claimed, also derailed a point of
order raised by a Representative regarding a proposed visit to
Saudi Arabia by a six-member House delegation to verify the
President's condition. He asked the head of the delegation and
clerk whether the six members' passports had received visas from
the Saudi Embassy, to which they replied affirmatively. Omegara
predicted that such maneuvers, while expedient in the short term,
would back-fire on the Speaker, whom he described as "digging his
own grave" politically. He said the delegation would have to
depart for Saudi Arabia soon. If they actually lacked visas, the
House members would call Bankole to account. If, on the other
hand, they traveled to Saudi Arabia and failed to see the
President, Omegara predicted that support would build for possible
impeachment proceedings against Yar'Adua.
--------------
JUDGE'S RULING DOES NOTHING TO RESOLVE CRISIS
--------------
7. (C) Omegara remarked that the recent ruling by a Federal High
Court Judge that Vice President Jonathan already had authority to
handle presidential duties, but not as Acting President until he
received a hand-over letter from the incumbent, did nothing to
resolve the constitutional impasse. Since the Vice President
lacked the power to perform as Commander-in-Chief, he said, the
military obeyed the Vice President's orders to deploy troops to Jos
to quell communal violence strictly because they wanted to. He
averred that the current impasse over presidential power could not
continue much longer.
--------------
MILITARY REMAINS IN BARRACKS
--------------
8. (C) Omegara, who noted that he frequently visited military
installations to monitor developments, described the senior
military leadership as fully supportive of civilian rule. He
stated that military leaders had gained exposure to democratic
practices during training and visits abroad and had also witnessed
first-hand, during peace-keeping missions, what has happened to
other countries when governance and military rule go awry.
--------------
SENATORS INSIST ON RESOLUTION
--------------
ABUJA 00000137 003.3 OF 003
9. (C) Senate President David Mark publicly reiterated support
February 2 for the resolution unanimously approved by colleagues
demanding a letter of "medical vacation" from the President,
according to press reports. He sidestepped the issue, however, of
whether the Senate would seek Yar'Adua's impeachment, if he failed
to transmit the letter. Nonetheless, Senate Navy Committee
Chairperson Bode Olajumoke confided privately to PolMil Assistant
February 1 that Senators would go for impeachment, if the President
did not transmit the letter soon. He insisted that Senators blamed
a circle of eight to ten presidential associates for preventing the
hand-over.
--------------
NEWS ON OPPOSITION FRONT
--------------
10. (C) On the opposition front, two-time former presidential
candidate Buhari resigned from the ANPP, according to his lawyer
and the media. Buhari said he had some "fundamental and
irreconcilable differences" with current ANPP leaders. He
reportedly planned to join the Congress for Progressive Change
(CPC),which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
had recently registered as a new political party. (COMMENT:
Buhari had earlier expressed interest in supporting the formation
of an opposition "mega" party. Whether he has changed his mind
about the "mega" party remains unclear. END COMMENT.)
MCCULLOUGH
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PINR MARR PREL SOCI KPAO NI
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA'S REMAINING SUPPORT ERODES FURTHER
REF: ABUJA 0129 AND PREVIOUS
ABUJA 00000137 001.3 OF 003
CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Demands for President Yar'Adua to step aside continued to
mount from nearly all sections. Information and Communications
Minister Dora Akunyili distributed a memorandum at the February 3
Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting demanding that Yar'Adua
submit a hand-over letter to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan.
Senate and House contacts indicated that they would consider
initiating impeachment proceedings if Yar'Adua fails to transmit
this letter soon. Two-time former Presidential Candidate General
Muhammadu Buhari resigned from the All Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP). END SUMMARY.
--------------
FEC VENEER OF UNITY CRACKS
--------------
2. (C) Minister Akunyili confirmed to Ambassador February 4 that
she had circulated a memorandum at the February 3 FEC meeting that
called upon President Yar'Adua to hand over power to Vice President
Jonathan as Acting President. Confirming the accuracy of press
reports, she told the Ambassador that she was glad that she had
stood up to the situation. Akunyili promised to forward a copy of
her memorandum, which Embassy has not yet received.
3. (C) According to press reports, the Information Minister
circulated the document because she no longer wanted to participate
in a "charade." She argued that the President's prolonged absence
had stalled government business and led to unconstitutional
actions. She noted as examples that several Permanent Secretaries
awaited swearing-in, the previous Supreme Court Justice swore in
his successor, the Vice President ordered deployment of troops to
Jos, and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta
(MEND) opted out of the amnesty program. After receiving shouts of
protest from other Cabinet Ministers, she withdrew her memorandum,
and Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Mahmud
Yayale Ahmed personally collected copies of the document from
Cabinet members, warning them not to leak it to the media.
4. (C) Presidential Advisor Sani Musa told PolCouns February 4 that
normally a Minister would provide a copy of a document to the SGF
before the FEC meeting to circulate among Ministers in advance,
something that Akunyili had not done. He remarked that Nigerians
fully recognized that Yar'Adua was in "terrible shape." He
described the Yar'Adua Presidency as finished. Musa noted as well
that he understood that Yar'Adua had signed an undated hand-over
letter before leaving Nigeria, leaving instructions to transmit the
letter if he had not returned within two weeks. He remarked that
whoever had blocked transmittal of the letter had committed a
criminal offense.
--------------
PATIENCE OF HOUSE MEMBERS RUNNING LOW
--------------
ABUJA 00000137 002.3 OF 003
5. (C) House Army Committee Deputy Chairperson Matthew Omegara, a
Representative for the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) from
Imo State, told PolCouns and PolOffs February 3 that he and his
House colleagues have begun to lose patience over the failure of
Yar'Adua to transmit a letter to the legislature designating Vice
President Jonathan as Acting President. He recounted how House
Speaker Dimeji Bankole had delayed a vote on a resolution demanding
the hand-over letter until pro-Yar'Adua "lobbyists" changed the
minds of enough Representatives who had earlier signed a petition
supporting the resolution. While not saying directly, he implied
that money changed hands.
6. (C) Speaker Bankole, Omegara claimed, also derailed a point of
order raised by a Representative regarding a proposed visit to
Saudi Arabia by a six-member House delegation to verify the
President's condition. He asked the head of the delegation and
clerk whether the six members' passports had received visas from
the Saudi Embassy, to which they replied affirmatively. Omegara
predicted that such maneuvers, while expedient in the short term,
would back-fire on the Speaker, whom he described as "digging his
own grave" politically. He said the delegation would have to
depart for Saudi Arabia soon. If they actually lacked visas, the
House members would call Bankole to account. If, on the other
hand, they traveled to Saudi Arabia and failed to see the
President, Omegara predicted that support would build for possible
impeachment proceedings against Yar'Adua.
--------------
JUDGE'S RULING DOES NOTHING TO RESOLVE CRISIS
--------------
7. (C) Omegara remarked that the recent ruling by a Federal High
Court Judge that Vice President Jonathan already had authority to
handle presidential duties, but not as Acting President until he
received a hand-over letter from the incumbent, did nothing to
resolve the constitutional impasse. Since the Vice President
lacked the power to perform as Commander-in-Chief, he said, the
military obeyed the Vice President's orders to deploy troops to Jos
to quell communal violence strictly because they wanted to. He
averred that the current impasse over presidential power could not
continue much longer.
--------------
MILITARY REMAINS IN BARRACKS
--------------
8. (C) Omegara, who noted that he frequently visited military
installations to monitor developments, described the senior
military leadership as fully supportive of civilian rule. He
stated that military leaders had gained exposure to democratic
practices during training and visits abroad and had also witnessed
first-hand, during peace-keeping missions, what has happened to
other countries when governance and military rule go awry.
--------------
SENATORS INSIST ON RESOLUTION
--------------
ABUJA 00000137 003.3 OF 003
9. (C) Senate President David Mark publicly reiterated support
February 2 for the resolution unanimously approved by colleagues
demanding a letter of "medical vacation" from the President,
according to press reports. He sidestepped the issue, however, of
whether the Senate would seek Yar'Adua's impeachment, if he failed
to transmit the letter. Nonetheless, Senate Navy Committee
Chairperson Bode Olajumoke confided privately to PolMil Assistant
February 1 that Senators would go for impeachment, if the President
did not transmit the letter soon. He insisted that Senators blamed
a circle of eight to ten presidential associates for preventing the
hand-over.
--------------
NEWS ON OPPOSITION FRONT
--------------
10. (C) On the opposition front, two-time former presidential
candidate Buhari resigned from the ANPP, according to his lawyer
and the media. Buhari said he had some "fundamental and
irreconcilable differences" with current ANPP leaders. He
reportedly planned to join the Congress for Progressive Change
(CPC),which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
had recently registered as a new political party. (COMMENT:
Buhari had earlier expressed interest in supporting the formation
of an opposition "mega" party. Whether he has changed his mind
about the "mega" party remains unclear. END COMMENT.)
MCCULLOUGH