EVOLVING POLITICAL DYNAMIC IN NIGERIA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000135

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/03
TAGS: PREL PGOV NI PINS
SUBJECT: EVOLVING POLITICAL DYNAMIC IN NIGERIA

REF: ABUJA 69

CLASSIFIED BY: Dundas C. McCullough, Deputy Chief of Mission; REASON:
1.4(D)


1. (S) Since we sent you our scene-setter on January 21 (reftel),
several key political trends in Nigeria have assumed sharper focus:



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Bandwagon Picking Up Speed

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Newspaper publishers, north-south "Eminent Elders," the northern
Arewa Consultative Forum, professional organizations like the
Nigerian Bar Association, and labor unions - these are some of the
theoretically apolitical groups that have recently joined the
chorus demanding that Vice President Jonathan be accorded formal
presidential powers. The "Eminent Elders" include not just the
predictable opposition figures like General Buhari, but a striking
array of civilian and military leaders who have served or shaped
Nigerian governments for the past 50 years. The emergence of
Senate President David Mark in this chorus is significant, given
his close ties to Yar'Adua and his obvious political aspirations
post-Yar'Adua. The Yar'Adua clique's stout resistance against any
formal transfer of powers means the issue is no longer viewed as
just a technical procedural matter, as it might have been in early
December, but has become shorthand for distinguishing the Yar'Adua
diehards from those who want him to step aside. This bandwagon
will reach critical mass if sitting ministers or Federal Executive
Council members start to climb aboard.



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Hanging on to Denial

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The tiny Yar'Adua clique probably knows better than anyone else in
Nigeria the true extent of Yar'Adua's illness, although many
Nigerians suspect the worst. Yet, they are still determined to
insist that Yar'Adua's absence is temporary and the political
situation is otherwise normal. In the process of perpetuating this
charade, they have lost virtually all credibility as reporters on
Yar'Adua's condition or as stewards of the national interest.
First Lady Turai Yar'Adua has been pilloried by local media as the
alleged ringleader of this self-obsessed clique. There are reports
that the clique may agree to "medical leave" for Yar'Adua as
called for by a non-binding Senate resolution; if this came to
pass, it should relieve some of the political pressure by enhancing
Jonathan's formal prerogatives.



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Lack of Urgency

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There remains a sometimes startling lack of popular urgency for
resolving the political crisis, in stark contrast to the pressure
that led to the defeat of Obasanjo's third-term initiative in 2006.
As reflected by its seemingly endless tolerance of bad governance
and daily hardships like power shortages, the Nigerian populace's
capacity to endure pain has often surprised foreign observers.
Large demonstrations against the political status quo - not the
desultory affairs we have seen thus far in Lagos and Abuja -- or
evidence , as opposed to speculative fear, that the military is
contemplating political action, would quickly generate a sense of
urgency, at least for political elites. Until that point, however,
the Nigerian talent for muddling through, combined with Jonathan's
surprisingly effective leadership during the communal violence in
Jos, will continue to undercut appeals for dramatic political
action.

ABUJA 00000135 002 OF 002


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Deathwatch

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Many Nigerian politicians seem to have adopted a strategy of
waiting for the situation to resolve itself through Yar'Adua's
death.




2. (S) In sum, there is growing public pressure to break the
constitutional logjam by giving Jonathan formal presidential
powers, but while more and more Nigerians joining the bandwagon,
few want to get ahead of it. The good news is that the Nigerian
military continues to be on the sidelines, both as the result of
its own calculations and because there appears to be no kingmaker
trying to motivate or fund intervention. In addition, while still
treading very cautiously, Jonathan's public image has benefitted
by his starting out with such low expectations. His steady if
extraordinarily cautious performance was energized by his forceful
public leadership on Jos, which helped solidify the political
consensus, even in the north, supporting Jonathan's constitutional
position as presumptive president. The bad news, though, is that
many political players on both sides of the Yar'Adua issue remain
satisfied to hedge their bets for as long as possible. Since
personal, not national, interest drives their calculations, many of
them will not be jolted out of this approach unless they are
touched or threatened by a major embarrassment or upheaval.
MCCULLOUGH