JUDICIAL, LEGISLATIVE, AND EXECUTIVE BRANCHES TUSSLE OVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000109

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/28
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NI
SUBJECT: JUDICIAL, LEGISLATIVE, AND EXECUTIVE BRANCHES TUSSLE OVER
PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA'S STATUS

REF: ABUJA 99 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (C) The Senate demanded January 27 that the President submit a
letter informing the legislature of his "medical leave" from
office, in the wake of a High Court Judge's ruling that the Federal
Executive Council (FEC) had 14 days in which to decide whether
ailing President Yar'Adua remained fit to continue in office. The
FEC declared that same day that the President had not become
"permanently incapacitated" and, therefore, remained fit to
exercise his Presidential duties, despite his absence from the
country and public view for more than two months. Pressures
mounted on the FEC to resolve the current impasse, and rumors
persist of an imminent return by Yar'Adua aboard a
specially-equipped presidential aircraft. END SUMMARY.



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HIGH COURT JUDGE SETS DEADLINE

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2. (SBU) Abuja High Court Judge Dan Abutu had decreed January 22 a
14-day deadline for the FEC to determine the ability of President
Yar'Adua to exercise his presidential duties. This order came on
the heels of his earlier ruling that Vice President Goodluck
Jonathan could exercise presidential duties, but not as Acting
President until he received a hand-over letter from the President.



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SENATE DEMANDS LETTER OF VACATION FROM PRESIDENT

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3. (SBU) After two days of intense debate behind closed doors, the
109-member Senate decreed that Yar'Adua should notify them via
letter of his "medical leave" from office, in compliance with
Section 145 of the Constitution, resulting in a formal hand-over of
powers to his deputy. The Senators embarked on this debate after
convoking Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF)
Mahmud Yayale Ahmed to the Senate last week to brief them on the
President's health. He admitted that he had not seen the President
since before his November 23 departure for Saudi Arabia for medical
treatment. Senators approved the non-binding resolution after some
80 members signed on to an internal petition calling for the formal
designation of Vice President Jonathan as Acting President.




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FEC DECLARES YAR'ADUA FIT FOR DUTY

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4. (SBU) The FEC, meanwhile, announced January 27 that President
Yar'Adua was "not incapable" of exercising his presidential duties,
despite his more-than-two-months absence from the country. FEC
members argued that Yar'Adua's medical treatment outside the
country did not constitute "incapacity." In briefing reporters

ABUJA 00000109 002 OF 002


after the meeting, Justice Minister and Attorney General Michael
Aondoakaa insisted that only Yar'Adua could exercise the discretion
to hand over his powers to the Vice President.




5. (C) SGF Ahmed, who serves as the Executive Officer of the
Council, informed the Ambassador the evening of January 27 that FEC
members had "reached a consensus" that Yar'Adua remained "fit to
serve" and had not become incapacitated. Kwara Governor Bukola
Saraki, while not an FEC member, told the Ambassador separately
January 27 that he had heard also that the FEC had reached
"consensus" in this case. He said a formal vote by the 42-member
FEC would have required 28 Ministers to vote in favor of a
resolution, which, in his view, would be highly unlikely to happen.





6. (C) Speculation continued in the media and elsewhere that
President Yar'Adua might return soon to Nigeria aboard his
presidential aircraft, now reportedly sporting new medical
equipment. A person associated with the security detail of the
Presidential Villa told Regional Security Office Investigator
January 28 that such a return may occur the evening of January 29
(which we doubt.) The press also reported behind-the-scenes
jockeying by politicians within the ruling People's Democratic
Party (PDP) to secure an early designation of a Northern politician
as the party's presidential candidate in 2011 to short circuit a
possible presidential run by Vice President Jonathan should he
ascend to the Presidency.



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COMMENT

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7. (C) The political impasse over Yar'Adua's absence continued as
the respective branches of government argued over which official --
the ailing President or his deputy -- should formally control the
reigns of power. To date, the elite have managed to muddle through
under trying and confusing circumstances by engineering "work
around" solutions typical of Nigerian governance during the
President's two-month-plus absence. Yar'Adua's inner circle, for
example, arranged a private, sick-bed "signing" of an important,
supplemental budget bill to prevent its automatic veto. The
outgoing Supreme Court Justice swore in his successor. Vice
President Jonathan presided over Armed Forces Remembrance Day
ceremonies January 15 -- the first instance in which the formal
Commander-in-Chief failed to do the honors. He later ordered the
deployment of troops to Jos to quell communal violence and followed
up with an inspection tour of affected communities. Despite these
measures, pressures continue to mount for those exercising power
behind-the-scenes to provide greater clarity over who is really in
charge. END COMMENT.
SANDERS