TOUGH DECISIONS AHEAD FOR FEDERAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL ON

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000101

SIPDIS
NOFORN
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL MARR SOCI KCRM NI
SUBJECT: TOUGH DECISIONS AHEAD FOR FEDERAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL ON
PRESIDENT YAR'ADUA

REF: 10 ABUJA 75 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

SECRET/NOFORN



TOUGH DECISION'S AHEAD FOR FEDERAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL ON PRESIDENT
YAR'ADUA


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SUMMARY

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1. (S/NF) Following a High Court order to the Federal Executive
Counil (FEC) that the FEC had two weeks to demonstrate to the
nation that President Yar'Adua could continue in office, the FEC
(an expanded cabinet) will hold its weekly meeting on January 27 to
weigh its options amid a swirl of competing political currents.
The Senate remains divided, with members of one camp pushing for a
delegation to visit Jeddah to see Yar'Adua for themselves.
Pressure for Yar'Adua to step aside is growing, unfazed by local
media reports -- backed by similar assertions to us from Yar'Adua
confidants and reporting in other channels -- that Yar'Adua's
condition has marginally improved and that he might be stable
enough to travel to Nigeria in the near future. Even if he does
return, few expect he could withstand the rigors of office. The
Nigerian Army's top two leaders reiterated to Mission officers that
the military has no interest in politics. The "mega-party"
opposition movement may officially announce its formation January

30. END SUMMARY.




2. (SBU) On January 23, an Abuja High Court Judge, who had ruled
earlier that Vice President Jonathan could assume presidential
powers without the title of Acting President, set a two-week
deadline for the FEC to formulate a stark conclusion about the
president's capacity: Yar'Adua is fit and not "permanently
incapacitated;" or Yar'Adua should resign or face an impeachment
process. The Senate has no Constitutional authority until it
receives a recommendation from the FEC.




3. (S/NF) Rumors persist that President Yar'Adua could return to
Nigeria in the near future, according to ministerial contacts, the
local press, Yar'Adua confidants, and reporting in other channels.
The Nigerian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia told the press that
Yar'Adua had recovered sufficiently to enable his release from the
hospital, but doctors advised against immediate travel. Another
report said the Presidential Villa had received two mobile hospital
units "the size of Coke machines" to provide for dialysis and
handle his heart condition.




4. (C) Agriculture and Water Resources Minister Abba Sayyadi Ruma,
a close friend of President Yar'Adua, told the Ambassador January
26 that he last spoke with Yar'Adua two weeks ago. He described
Yar'Adua's speech as weak but coherent. Ruma expected that
Yar'Adua could return to Nigeria within 30 days, given that,
according to his contacts, the President has responded "better" to
the current treatment. Ruma said that the court's decision that it
has no standing on Yar'Adua's health is an important point. He
noted that the January 27 FEC meeting would be tough as it could
effectively render to the Senate only two recommendations:
Yar'Adua is not "permanently incapacitated" -- or he should resign
or face impeachment.




5. (C) DAO and other Mission offices continue to run the traps on
reports of coup plotting. Our contacts note that Chief of Army

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Staff Lieutenant General Dambazau restricted the movement of
military units to prevent divisions between the public and the
military over their role in quelling communal violence after
reports that some rioters in Jos had worn army uniforms. He told
the press that rumors of a coup are "unnecessary, unwarranted, and
inflammatory." Chief of Defense Staff Air Marshal Paul Dike added
that the Nigerian military would "leave politics to the
politicians."




6. (SBU) The "mega-party" opposition movement may officially
announce its formation January 30, further adding to the
atmospherics surrounding Yar'Adua's prolonged absence. Former Vice
President and Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar told PolOff
January 25 that he would return to Nigeria from South Africa four
days later, presumably to lead the January 30 event. In addition
to Atiku Abubakar, other key "mega party" leaders include retired
General and former Head of State Mohammadu Buhari, former Sokoto
Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, and Kano State Governor Ibrahim
Shekaru.



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COMMENT

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7. (C) Amid the swirl of rumors and political cross currents, it is
unclear if the GON -- in the form of the next FEC meeting -- is
finally at the crunch point in dealing with Yar'Adua's prolonged
absence. Nevertheless, between the court order and the building
political pressures to move beyond Yar'Adua, without overtly
breaching Constitutional strictures, the FEC meeting looks likely
to be difficult and painful for its participants, both tomorrow and
in the near future, as the ball is in its court to begin to get
Nigeria out of this Constitutional mess. END COMMENT.
SANDERS