SORO TO FORM NEW GOVERNMENT; OPPOSITION SPLIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000071

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/17
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC KDEM IV
SUBJECT: SORO TO FORM NEW GOVERNMENT; OPPOSITION SPLIT

REF: ABIDJAN 65

CLASSIFIED BY: Mary Townswick, Section Chief, STATE, POL/ECON;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (SBU) Summary: On February 12, President Gbagbo dissolved the
government, charging PM Soro with naming a new cabinet and
restructuring the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI). Soro
continues to consult with opposition parties in an attempt to reach
a compromise on a new government; reports that he would announce
the new line up on February 16 were premature. While the Ivoirian
populace remained generally calm, and Gbagbo's announcement caught
the opposition parties off guard, the electoral process will
certainly not benefit. It remains to be seen whether any momentum
towards elections will be re-established; if not, splits in the
opposition parties, especially with their respective youth wings,
indicate that the potential for political unrest remains
heightened. End Summary




2. (C) During his surprise announcement on February 12 dissolving
the government and the Independent Electoral Commission (reftel),
President Laurent Gbagbo gave Prime Minister Guillaume Soro 72
hours to form a new government. FPI contacts told Emboffs the move
is intended to both streamline and de-politicize the government.
Soro has reportedly been instructed to set up a smaller cabinet of
20 ministers (versus the current 33) and choose people based on
technical expertise, not political party ties. (Note: the
recently dissolved government of "national unity," which was
corrupt and dysfunctional, had eight FPI ministers, eight Forces
Nouvelles ministers, five PDCI ministers, and five RDR ministers,
with the remainder allotted to smaller parties and civil society.
End Note) Soro spent the weekend consulting with the opposition
and the international community, and met February 16 in Bouake
with the Forces Nouvelles. Although it was reported that Soro
would announce a new government at 16:00 local time February 16,
the announcement was later postponed until the end of the week, to
give Soro more time to reach an agreement with the opposition
parties.




3. (C) SRSG Choi told the Ambassador that he believed an agreement
was likely, as long as Gbagbo respects the OPA, which he agreed to
do his public address. (Note: The OPA, which subsumes the tenets
of the Linas-Marcoussis and Pretoria agreements, requires that the
structure and numbers of the Cabinet and CEI be maintained. End
Note) Choi told Ambassador February 16 that if the OPA were
respected, the opposition likely would go along with the formation
of a new government. The key will be maintaining the current
representation of political parties in the CEI, although with
different personnel as commissioners.



Opposition Divided




4. (C) Initial press reports indicated negative opposition
reaction to Gbabgo's announcement. The RHDP said that they no
longer recognized him as the head of state, and called his
unilateral action "anti-democratic" and "unconstitutional."
However, no large protests were organized (in spite of rumors that
the RDR would stage a massive rally),and as the weekend wore on,
the opposition appeared to be more open to working with Gbagbo,
provided their conditions could be met. The head of the coalition
of opposition parties (RHDP),for example, announced February 14
that they would support the new government as long as the CEI is
reconstituted. We have heard that there are significant divisions
within the opposition, particularly with their respective youth
wings, regarding any compromise with the President's camp.
Divisions among various factions of the Forces Nouvelles could also
complicate the situation.



Scattered Outbreaks of Violence




5. (C) The timing of Gbagbo's announcement (8 p.m. on Friday)
appeared to be chosen to minimize the risk of a mass popular
reaction. However, no such reaction materialized. Although there
were isolated protests throughout the country (in Abengourou in the
east, Tafire in the north, and in the Abidjan neighborhood of
Yopougon after false rumors circulated that Chief of the Armed
Forces General Mangou had been arrested),there was little reaction
from the Ivoirian population. Heavy rains on Sunday afternoon also

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reduced movement and, with it, the potential for unrest.




6. (C) Comment: All signs point to an event that was carefully
choreographed. Ministers reportedly lost their security details on
Friday evening, and were locked out of their offices. Some were
even evicted from their residences over the weekend. In spite of
inflammatory press remarks, a stunned opposition offered little
concrete response to Gbagbo's surprise initiative. While Gbagbo
appeared ill at ease while making his televised statement (recorded
hours earlier),the FPI's campaign against the "fraud" perpetrated
by CEI President Mambe appears to have resonated with the
population, with some Ivoirians voicing hope in a newly constituted
Commission. The impact of this latest move, and Gbagbo's full
rationale may not be known immediately, but this new political
landscape means that elections this spring, or even this year,
appear increasingly unlikely.
NESBITT