ELECTORAL PROCESS GRINDING TO A HALT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000045

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/29
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI IV
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL PROCESS GRINDING TO A HALT

REF: 10 ABIDJAN 37; 10 ABIDJAN 41

CLASSIFIED BY: Tanya Salseth, Political Officer, Department of State,
Embassy Abidjan; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Since the Independent Electoral
Commission (CEI) fraud scandal made headlines in early January, the
pace of electoral preparations has slowed to a crawl. There is
still no consensus among the political parties on a way forward
following the CEI scandal. The 70 observation committees tasked
with overseeing the scrubbing of the provisional electoral list are
reviewing very few cases. Persistent discussion about reopening
the dispute process continues, and the opposition - emboldened,
perhaps, by the strong turnout at its peaceful January 26
demonstration - is now calling for the Minister of Interior to
resign. END SUMMARY



POLITICAL PARTIES DIG IN DEEPER


2. (C) Political parties remain at an impasse on how the CEI
fraud scandal should be resolved. FPI Director of Political
Affairs Navigue Konate pointedly told Poloff that "if we lose the
presidential election and President Mambe is still head of the CEI,
we will never accept the results." Militant youth leader Charles
Ble Goude, who called off a planned demonstration to demand Mambe's
resignation, told the press that his supporters still intend to
march. For its part, the RHDP opposition coalition unequivocally
supports Mambe and says it will continue to do so unless a neutral
investigation shows he is at fault. Konate, however, told Poloff
that the FPI is against a UN-led investigation, as it would "take
too long" and UNOCI SRSG Choi "favors Mambe." Recently, the Forum
of Religious Confessions, a coalition of Islamic and Catholic
leaders, has stepped in to help mediate the political party
standoff; however, little progress has been made.



OBSERVATION COMMITTEES LIMPING ALONG


3. (C) On January 27, the Prime Minister's office stated
that 95% of the 70 observation committees tasked with examining
cases submitted during the dispute process are in place.
Discussions with INS and ONI representatives on January 28 confirm
this figure; however, both reps told Poloff that the case review
process is proceeding excruciatingly slowly. INS Special Advisor
Dalo Yao told Poloff that the 70 committees had a 16 day window
from January 18 to February 2 to review cases from the list of
1.033 million "unverified" names. As of January 28, however, the
committees had only examined a little over 10% of the cases:
approximately 115,000 cases have been approved and 8,000 rejected.
Reps attribute these low numbers to the reluctance of some local
CEIs to forward cases to the committees. It is unclear whether
courts are continuing to review contested cases submitted according
to the original timeline for the contestation period and which
should have been completed by January 17. Reports indicate that
not all had been finished by that deadline, and that new cases
could be referred to the courts by the new observation committees.
Both INS and ONI reps believed the dispute process would likely be
reopened for ten days, and agents staffing the observation
committees would need to extend their contracts due to delays.



THE OPPOSITION FINDS ITS VOICE


4. (SBU) The January 26 RHDP demonstration (see ref A) drew
thousands of peaceful, disciplined marchers. Agence France Presse
reported 3,000 marchers present; the UN, 5,000. [Note: Numerous
photos of the demonstration currently available at
http://news.abidjan.net/photos/photo.asp?id=4 0486 End Note]. There
is evidence that the marchers' complaints of unequal media access
are justified: a December 2009 civil society report conducted in
conjunction with the CNCA (Cote d'Ivoire's national media
regulatory body) concluded that Ivoirian national television
routinely covers more FPI-related news.




5. (SBU) The demonstration was perhaps more important,
however, for its unspoken message. Ivoirians still vividly
remember the last major opposition protest in March 2004, when
government security forces launched a violent crackdown that killed
upwards of 120 people over several days of bloodshed. Nearly six
years later, the January 26 demonstration served as a stark
contrast: the opposition worked hand in hand with defense and

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security forces to ensure the protest was conducted in a peaceful
and orderly manner, and the ruling party not only authorized the
demonstration to take place, but also kept its more militant
supporters in check.




6. (SBU) COMMENT: Even if the demonstration results in few
changes, the protest is a testament to Cote d'Ivoire's political
progress. The success of the demonstration also seems to have
given the opposition renewed self-confidence and a stronger sense
of unity. The day after the demonstration, the RHDP coalition
called for the Minister of Interior's resignation, citing his
January 19 letter (later rescinded) instructing prefects to take
over the dispute process from the CEI (ref B). They are also
irritated at the Interior Ministry's investigation into the fraud
scandal. Until the scandal is resolved, however, and a clear way
forward on re-validating the voters' list determined, elections are
likely to be further delayed.
NESBITT