OPPOSITION YOUTH TO HOLD MASS DEMONSTRATION ON JAN 26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000037

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AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/25
TAGS: PGOV SOCI IV
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION YOUTH TO HOLD MASS DEMONSTRATION ON JAN 26

REF: 09 ABIDJAN 37

CLASSIFIED BY: Tanya Salseth, Political Officer, Department of State,
Embassy Abidjan; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Political youth leaders from the
RHDP opposition coalition have called for a mass demonstration on
January 26. It will be the opposition's first major demonstration
since March 2004. They plan to march on the state-owned television
network in Abidjan and hold a sit-in to denounce the station's
"biased coverage" in favor of the president's party. Although
Minister of Interior and FPI stalwart Desire Tagro officially
authorized the demonstration to take place, the FPI continues to
suggest that opposition protestors may "provoke" the police into
using violence in order to smear the president's party before
elections. Over the weekend, the government took measures to
minimize the possibility of violence, but it will be difficult to
control the outcome, particularly if the demonstration attracts
large numbers of youth bent on venting their frustrations. END
SUMMARY



OPPOSITION CITES BIASED COVERAGE

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2. (SBU) Youth leaders from the RHDP, an opposition
coalition made up of the PDCI, RDR, MFA, PIT, and UDPCI political
parties, met January 21 to confirm their intention to hold a
peaceful protest against the state-owned television network RTI
(Ivoirian Radio and Television) on January 26. PDCI and RDR youth
leaders believe the RTI is heavily biased in favor of the
president's party and cited the extensive coverage of the
activities of FPI youth campaign director and Jeunes Patriots
leader Charles Ble Goude as a prime example of this phenomenon.
They told Poloff on January 21 that in mid 2009, the opposition
formally complained to Cote d'Ivoire's media regulatory body, the
CNCA, requesting that RTI provide more balanced coverage. The CNCA
did not respond. In early January 2010, after RTI repeatedly aired
footage of Ble Goude calling for the resignation of Independent
Electoral Commission (CEI) President Robert Mambe, incensed
opposition youth leaders decided that a demonstration was "the only
way to get RTI to listen." RDR youth leader Karamoko Yayoro
estimates that around 10,000 people will participate in the
protest.



RULING PARTY EVOKES GUINEA COMPARISONS, SAYS FRANCE INVOLVED

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3. (C) FPI youth leader Navigue Konate told Poloff
on January 21 that the opposition's claims of RTI's biased coverage
are just excuses to provoke the security forces into using violence
in order to discredit Gbagbo on the eve of elections. Calling the
protestors "extremists with guns and machetes," Konate said the
opposition hopes to repeat what happened in Guinea in September

2009. "Dadis Camara was innocent," Konate said, "and now the
opposition wants to repeat this formula so President Ggabgo is
blamed." At a January 23 youth rally, Ble Goude also compared the
situation to that of Guinea, casting France as the mastermind
behind the planned demonstration in order to oust Gbagbo. However,
Ble Goude also asked his supporters to avoid confrontations with
the RHDP youth, calling on them to stay off the streets tomorrow
and let the RHDP conduct its march.



POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE?

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4. (C) COMMENT: Despite the FPI's rhetoric,
developments over the weekend indicate that the demonstration may
take place peacefully. As noted above, Ble Goude told his
followers at the January 23 rally to avoid clashing with opposition
youth. He also called off a demonstration planned for this same
week, in which FPI militants planned to march on the CEI to call
for President Mambe's resignation. Even before Ble Goude's
announcement, RDR and PDCI reps had told Poloff on January 21 that
they did not fear a clash with the Jeunes Patriots or FESCI (the
militant student organization affiliated with the FPI). If any
violence did take place, the RDR rep believed it would be between

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opposition youth and government security forces. Second, the
FPI-controlled Ministry of Interior granted an authorization for
the protest, defusing some of the opposition's anger over
speculation that the authorization would be denied. The opposition
also met with Ministry of Interior representatives on January 23.
Papers reported that, as a result of that meeting, police agreed to
"escort" the march, but not interfere with it. The Embassy is
issuing a warden message to American citizens and will continue to
closely follow developments.
NESBITT