FPI HARDLINERS GAIN UPPER HAND IN ELECTORAL LIST DISPUTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000027

SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/22
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IV
SUBJECT: FPI HARDLINERS GAIN UPPER HAND IN ELECTORAL LIST DISPUTE

REF: 10 ABIDJAN 19

CLASSIFIED BY: Wanda Nesbitt, Ambassador, State, Embassy Abidjan;
REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (C). Summary: The Facilitator's representative believes that
FPI hardliners have persuaded President Gbagbo that he is "being
pushed to elections like a lamb being led to slaughter", and
thereby won his approval to intensify their campaign to discredit
the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI). Badini does not
believe they will succeed in displacing CEI President Mambe and is
working closely with PM Soro to persuade Gbagbo to control his
entourage, discourage actions to whip up anti-CEI sentiment, and
voice support for the commissions Soro is putting in place to
guarantee that the final electoral list is a consensual one. End
Summary

Mambe Made a Mistake; Did Not Commit Fraud

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2. (C.) In a January 21 meeting, Amb. Boureima Badini confirmed
to Ambassador the basic facts reported in ref A, namely that FPI
allegations of fraud by CEI President Mambe were triggered by the
latter's refusal to extend the contestation period. Badini stated
that Mambe advised CPC members at their last meeting (December 3)
of the internal cross-checking he carried out and of the results.
According to Badini, the CPC instructed him to take no further
action. Mambe's error was to permit CDs containing the 429,000
names to be distributed in violation of the CPC's expressed
preference. Mambe's action was clearly wrong, Badini said, but did
not compromise the validity of the overall process, as Sagem and
INS retain control of the original list. The 70 commissions (which
will include Sagem and INS reps) put in place by PM Soro will
review every case from the list of "unverified" names and determine
whether sufficient proof of nationality has been provided for the
person to be added to the final electoral list. This process will
ensure that any suspected cases of fraud are uncovered and should
be sufficient to satisfy the FPI's concerns.

But FPI Hardliners Are Making the Most of It

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3. C. Ambassador expressed concern about the heightened rhetoric
emanating from both the FPI and the RHDP (the coalition of
opposition parties),and the potential for violence if opposition
party youth wings begin to stage public demonstrations. She shared
with Badini the Carter Center's January 20 statement calling for an
independent inquiry to clarify the facts. Badini agreed that an
independent assessment would help calm emotions, noting that
President Compaore had successfully dissuaded Gbagbo from involving
the Constitutional Court, a step that would have inflamed the
atmosphere. Interior Minister Tagro's insistence on pushing a
judicial inquiry is not helpful, Badini said, and reflects the fact
that hardliners within the FPI currently have the upper hand. The
Facilitation is ready to work with ONUCI to conduct an independent
inquiry if the Security Council asks them to.


4. C. Expanding on the influence of FPI hardliners (led by
Simone Gbagbo),Badini noted that the CEI is a problem for them
because they cannot control it. Badini recalled that the
hardliners never wanted Gbagbo to sign the Ouagadougou Political
Accord (OPA) and opposed the creation of the CEI. They still blame
Tagro, who advised Gbagbo to sign, for getting them into an
unwinnable situation, a fact that, according to Badini, makes it
easier for Tagro to be persuaded to take a tough approach. The
Facilitator's representative did not think, however, that the FPI
would succeed in displacing Mambe, who retains the full support of
the PDCI.

Parties Need to Refocus on Next Steps

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5. (SBU) Badini told Ambassador that he has been working closely
with PM Soro to move the process beyond this latest scandal; they
are focused on persuading President Gbagbo that the regional
commissions charged with overseeing additions to the final list
will be representative and will ensure that no one is added unless
h/she has submitted solid proof of nationality. He was hopeful that
he and Soro would succeed, but acknowledged that producing a final
electoral list will continue to be a challenge as long as FPI
hardliners perceive the list to be comprised overwhelmingly of
opposition supporters.


6. (C.) Comment: The Prime Minister's approach seems to be a

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sensible one that will keep the process moving and address
legitimate concerns about fraud. In discussions with local
officials, Embassy plans to echo the message contained in the
Carter Center's public statement, namely that the process has been
fundamentally sound and recent allegations should not call into
question the validity of the entire process. The parties need to
refocus on next steps - i.e., how to complete the registration
process, so that elections can take place as close as possible to
the originally announced timeframe.
NESBITT