Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ZAGREB723
2009-12-10 13:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

CROATIA CONTINUING INVESTIGATIONS WHILE PREPARING

Tags:  PREL PGOV KAWC ICTY HR 
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VZCZCXRO2570
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHVB #0723/01 3441308
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101308Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9723
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000723 

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS S/WCI FOR RAPP AND EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KAWC ICTY HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA CONTINUING INVESTIGATIONS WHILE PREPARING
FOR ICTY HEARING

REF: ZAGREB 694

Classified By: Political Officer Chris Zimmer for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000723

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS S/WCI FOR RAPP AND EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KAWC ICTY HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA CONTINUING INVESTIGATIONS WHILE PREPARING
FOR ICTY HEARING

REF: ZAGREB 694

Classified By: Political Officer Chris Zimmer for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Government of Croatia is preparing for
a Trial Chamber hearing at The Hague on December 16 to
assess its cooperation with the ICTY, which the GoC sees as
a critical juncture in Croatia's EU accession process.
Justice Minister Simonovic told the Ambassador on December
8 that if Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights)
remains blocked through the spring of 2010, it could
combine with other factors to have a destabilizing effect
on the country. Ambassador Foley offered suggestions for
enhancing the work of the Task Force and to shape GOC
public attitudes on the documents and ICTY cooperation.
The two agreed to consult again in mid-January to review
any further results of the GoC Task Force and a ruling by
the Trial Chamber which might give impetus to the EU to
move on Chapter 23. END SUMMARY.

Brammertz Not Interested in Task Force's Work
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador Foley met with Justice Minister Ivan
Simonovic on December 7 to discuss the GoC's continuing
investigations into the missing artillery documents and the
upcoming hearing at ICTY on Croatia's cooperation, as well
as strategies for unblocking Chapter 23 (Judiciary and
Fundamental Rights) in the EU accession process (Reftel).
The Minister said that the Task Force will continue to
establish an ever more complete record of the disappearance
of the documents and who was responsible, but added that it
was unlikely the documents will be found. Simonovic fears
that Brammertz is not interested in a credible
investigation which fails to produce documents, however.
Given that the most likely success the Task Force could
produce will be "additional explanations of how the
documents disappeared," he was concerned that the work of
the Task Force may be futile. He said that Brammertz
accuses the GOC of trying to run out the clock with the
trial nearing its conclusion, but the GOC has no illusions

and understands that Brammertz will continue to insist on
Croatia producing the documents throughout the appeals
process. Simonovic later said that he is "pretty convinced
that documents exist" (in the hands of people around
General Gotovina),so there remains a slim possibility some
could still be recovered.

Continued Blockade Would Be Catastrophe
--------------


3. (C) Simonovic said that if Chapter 23 and Croatia's EU
accession remained blocked through two more years of the
appeals process it would be "a catastrophe." In fact, he
thought the critical point would come as early as next
spring. The state's finances are likely to be weak,
requiring a rebalancing of the budget which could have
significant social consequences. He said that if the EU
path were not open at that point, it could be destabilizing
not only to the GOC but to the country. The Ambassador
acknowledged the stakes in the Chapter 23 blockade, but
said the USG could not hope to intervene successfully with
key EU parties without positive developments to point to.
Finding documents was the only certain way; we want in any
event to see what the GOC and its Task Force could produce
over the next month. Simonovic said that he recently spoke
to the Finnish Foreign Minister, who said Croatia "is very
close to opening Chapter 23." Simonovic said this would
leave the Dutch and British as the lone firm opponents to
unblocking negotiations.

Trial Chamber is a Critical Step; Potential for Public
Backlash
-------------- --------------


4. (C/NF) Both the Ambassador and Minister agreed that the
Trial Chamber's actions -- both the December 16 hearing on
Croatia's cooperation and especially the subsequent
decision expected in January -- would prove critical
milestones. Simonovic said that he hopes Croatia's
presentation on Dec. 16 might help sway the UK and the
Netherlands to soften their positions. The GOC would make
it clear to the Trial Chamber that all the Task Force's
evidence points straight to Gotovina and his associates as
responsible for stealing the documents. The message, he
said, will be that the GOC is not protecting anyone for

ZAGREB 00000723 002 OF 002


things they have done in the past and wants the truth to be
uncovered. Simonovic did express concern that the GOC's
willingness to continue its investigation may undermine its
hopes of getting the Chamber to rule that Croatia has
completely fulfilled the Court's order of September 16,

2008. Realistically, the best outcome the GoC can look for
would be that the Court states that Croatia is cooperating
and making progress and urging that the investigation
should continue. A positive ruling of this type might give
the UK and Netherlands grounds to permit the opening of
Chapter 23.


5. (C/NF) Accusing Gotovina and his team in open court is
very delicate for the GOC, Simonovic said, given Gotovina's
standing as a national hero with the Croatian population.
Simonovic is even concerned with the physical configuration
of the courtroom and whether the GOC experts would have
Gotovina in their field of vision during their
presentation. Ambassador Foley stressed the importance of
top GOC leadership communicating to the public that
Gotovina's personal interest were deeply at odds with the
nation's interests.

Amnesty for Documents?
--------------


6. (C) To increase cooperation from the public, the
Ambassador suggested that authorities offer amnesty to
anyone who comes forward with documents or information
about their destruction. This would also require clear
pubic messages from the GOC leadership that helping the
government to find the documents was in the national
interest. At first, Simonovic was concerned about making
an amnesty offer after prosecutors won three successful
convictions against persons involved in concealing or
destroying documents, but later said that he found the
suggestion intriguing.


7. (C/NF) Both sides agreed to consult again in mid-January
once the Task Force has additional results and in
expectation of a Trial Chamber ruling on Croatia's
cooperation which might give impetus to the EU to move
forward on Chapter 23. Simonovic expects the Trial
Chamber's decision will be more positive than Brammertz's
recent assessments, but that after mid-January he sees no
other event that could be used to sway EU opinions until
possibly in the summer, when he expects a verdict in the
Gotovina case.


8. (C/NF) Prime Minister Kosor's foreign policy advisor,
Davor Stier, provided a more upbeat assessment to the
Ambassador later on December 8. Stier felt that an
important psychological milestone had been reached in the
past week. On the one hand, Brammertz had discovered that
he could risk acknowledging GoC good faith and progress
without the Croatians using that to argue that further
investigation and cooperation was unnecessary. The Croats'
assumption that Brammertz would never recognize progress on
their part, no matter what they did, had also been
overturned. Stier said Kosor had given the investigative
Task Force marching orders over last weekend to invigorate
their efforts, and he expressed guarded optimism that
further positive results could be achieved.


9. (C/NF) COMMENT: The Croatians clearly understand the
need to continue their improved investigative efforts, but
are deeply concerned with what it will mean for their EU
negotiations if even the best investigation in the world
fails to turn up the documents. Although Brammertz has now
acknowledged progress, he has still been unwilling to give
a signal to the EU that cooperation is sufficient to allow
Chapter 23 negotiations to begin. The Trial Chamber's
hearing and ruling therefore may be Croatia's best hope of
convincing EU Member States that the GoC is doing what it
can to investigate the documents, and is committed to
continuing to do so. But the Croatians also need to be
prepared for what to do if the Chamber's decision is
negative, or even inconclusive. Simonovic jokingly
observed that then all they could do would be to "hang
every person involved in the investigations to date",
including himself. END COMMENT.

FOLEY