CROATIA CONTINUING INVESTIGATIONS WHILE PREPARING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000722

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE PASS S/WCI FOR RAPP AND EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV KAWC ICTY HR
SUBJECT: CROATIA CONTINUING INVESTIGATIONS WHILE PREPARING
FOR ICTY HEARING

REF: ZAGREB 694

Classified By: Political Officer Chris Zimmer for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Government of Croatia is preparing for a
Trial Chamber hearing at
The Hague on December 16 to assess its cooperation with the
ICTY, which the GoC sees as
a critical juncture in Croatia's EU accession process.
Justice Minister Simonovic told
the Ambassador on December 8 that if Chapter 23 (Judiciary
and Fundamental Rights)
remains blocked through the spring of 2010, it could combine
with other factors to have
a destabilizing effect on the country. Ambassador Foley
offered suggestions for
enhancing the work of the Task Force and to shape GOC public
attitudes on the documents
and ICTY cooperation. The two agreed to consult again in
mid-January to review any
further results of the GoC Task Force and a ruling by the
Trial Chamber which might
give impetus to the EU to move on Chapter 23. END SUMMARY.

Brammertz Not Interested in Task Force's Work
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador Foley met with Justice Minister Ivan
Simonovic on December 7 to
discuss the GoC's continuing investigations into the missing
artillery documents and the
upcoming hearing at ICTY on Croatia's cooperation, as well as
strategies for unblocking
Chapter 23 (Judiciary and Fundamental Rights) in the EU
accession process (Reftel). The
Minister said that the Task Force will continue to establish
an ever more complete record
of the disappearance of the documents and who was
responsible, but added that it was
unlikely the documents will be found. Simonovic fears that
Brammertz is not interested
in a credible investigation which fails to produce documents,
however. Given that the
most likely success the Task Force could produce will be
"additional explanations of how
the documents disappeared," he was concerned that the work of
the Task Force may be
futile. He said that Brammertz accuses the GOC of trying to
run out the clock with the
trial nearing its conclusion, but the GOC has no illusions
and understands that Brammertz
will continue to insist on Croatia producing the documents
throughout the appeals process.
Simonovic later said that he is "pretty convinced that
documents exist" (in the hands of
people around General Gotovina),so there remains a slim
possibility some could still be
recovered.

Continued Blockade Would Be Catastrophe
--------------


3. (C) Simonovic said that if Chapter 23 and Croatia's EU
accession remained blocked
through two more years of the appeals process it would be "a
catastrophe." In fact, he
thought the critical point would come as early as next
spring. The state's finances are
likely to be weak, requiring a rebalancing of the budget
which could have significant
social consequences. He said that if the EU path were not
open at that point, it could be
destabilizing not only to the GOC but to the country. The
Ambassador acknowledged the
stakes in the Chapter 23 blockade, but said the USG could not
hope to intervene successfully
with key EU parties without positive developments to point
to. Finding documents was the
only certain way; we want in any event to see what the GOC
and its Task Force could produce
over the next month. Simonovic said that he recently spoke
to the Finnish Foreign Minister,
who said Croatia "is very close to opening Chapter 23."
Simonovic said this would leave the
Dutch and British as the lone firm opponents to unblocking

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negotiations.

Trial Chamber a Critical Step; Potential for Public Backlash
-------------- --------------


4. (C/NF) Both the Ambassador and Minister agreed that the
Trial Chamber's actions -- both
the December 16 hearing on Croatia's cooperation and
especially the subsequent decision
expected in January -- would prove critical milestones.
Simonovic said that he hopes
Croatia's presentation on Dec. 16 might help sway the UK and
the Netherlands to soften their
positions. The GOC would make it clear to the Trial Chamber
that all the Task Force's
evidence points straight to Gotovina and his associates as
responsible for stealing the
documents. The message, he said, will be that the GOC is not
protecting anyone for things
they have done in the past and wants the truth to be
uncovered. Simonovic did express concern
that the GOC's willingness to continue its investigation may
undermine its hopes of getting
the Chamber to rule that Croatia has completely fulfilled the
Court's order of September 16,

2008. Realistically, the best outcome the GoC can look for
would be that the Court states
that Croatia is cooperating and making progress and urging
that the investigation should
continue. A positive ruling of this type might give the UK
and Netherlands grounds to permit
the opening of Chapter 23.


5. (C/NF) Accusing Gotovina and his team in open court is
very delicate for the GOC, Simonovic
said, given Gotovina's standing as a national hero with the
Croatian population. Simonovic is
even concerned with the physical configuration of the
courtroom and whether the GOC experts
would have Gotovina in their field of vision during their
presentation. Ambassador Foley
stressed the importance of top GOC leadership communicating
to the public that Gotovina's
personal interests were deeply at odds with the nation's
interests.

Amnesty for Documents?
--------------


6. (C) To increase cooperation from the public, the
Ambassador suggested that authorities offer
amnesty to anyone who comes forward with documents or
information about their destruction. This
would also require clear pubic messages from the GOC
leadership that helping the government to
find the documents was in the national interest. At first,
Simonovic was concerned about making
an amnesty offer after prosecutors won three successful
convictions against persons involved in
concealing or destroying documents, but later said that he
found the suggestion intriguing.


7. (C/NF) Both sides agreed to consult again in mid-January
once the Task Force has additional
results and in expectation of a Trial Chamber ruling on
Croatia's cooperation which might give
impetus to the EU to move forward on Chapter 23. Simonovic
expects the Trial Chamber's decision
will be more positive than Brammertz's recent assessments,
but that after mid-January he sees no
other event that could be used to sway EU opinions until
possibly in the summer, when he expects
a verdict in the Gotovina case.


8. (C/NF) Prime Minister Kosor's foreign policy advisor,
Davor Stier, provided a more upbeat
assessment to the Ambassador later on December 8. Stier felt
that an important psychological
milestone had been reached in the past week. On the one
hand, Brammertz had discovered that he
could risk acknowledging GoC good faith and progress without
the Croatians using that to argue
that further investigation and cooperation was unnecessary.
The Croats' assumption that Brammertz
would never recognize progress on their part, no matter what
they did, had also been overturned.

ZAGREB 00000722 003 OF 003


Stier said Kosor had given the investigative Task Force
marching orders over last weekend to
invigorate their efforts, and he expressed guarded optimism
that further positive results could
be achieved.


9. (C/NF) COMMENT: The Croatians clearly understand the need
to continue their improved
investigative efforts, but are deeply concerned with what it
will mean for their EU negotiations if
even the best investigation in the world fails to turn up the
documents. Although Brammertz has
now acknowledged progress, he has still been unwilling to
give a signal to the EU that cooperation
is sufficient to allow Chapter 23 negotiations to begin. The
Trial Chamber's hearing and ruling
therefore may be Croatia's best hope of convincing EU Member
States that the GoC is doing what it
can to investigate the documents, and is committed to
continuing to do so. But the Croatians also
need to be prepared for what to do if the Chamber's decision
is negative, or even inconclusive.
Simonovic jokingly observed that then all they could do would
be to "hang every person involved in
the investigations to date", including himself. END COMMENT.
FOLEY