Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09ZAGREB407
2009-07-02 12:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

PM RESIGNATION SPURS CABINET SHAKEUP; COALITION

Tags:  PGOV HR SI EUC 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHVB #0407/01 1831259
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021259Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9372
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000407 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV HR SI EUC
SUBJECT: PM RESIGNATION SPURS CABINET SHAKEUP; COALITION
GOVERNMENT HOLDING STEADY

REF: ZAGREB 402

Classified By: Acting DCM Rick Holtzapple, Reasons 1.4 B/D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000407

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV HR SI EUC
SUBJECT: PM RESIGNATION SPURS CABINET SHAKEUP; COALITION
GOVERNMENT HOLDING STEADY

REF: ZAGREB 402

Classified By: Acting DCM Rick Holtzapple, Reasons 1.4 B/D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A day after Ivo Sanader announced his
resignation as Prime Minister, the reasons for his abrupt
departure are no clearer. While Sanader is still acting
Prime Minister, current Deputy Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor
has the support of all of Sanader,s coalition partners and
should be able to formally become the head of government
within the coming days or weeks. Sanader,s resignation has
spurred some reshuffling of ministries but we expect no major
changes in terms of Croatia,s foreign or domestic policy
goals, although EU aspirations will likely be modulated in
response to the difficulties Sanader has faced on that aim.
The leadership of Sanader,s party, the Croatian Democratic
Union (HDZ) has also been reworked and Kosor will take the
helm of a party that features a much more conservative
leadership team. END SUMMARY

RULING COALITION HOLDING TOGETHER


2. (SBU) Sanader proposed that Deputy Prime Minister and
Deputy Head of the HDZ Jadranka Kosor be given the mandate to
form a new coalition government headed by the HDZ. All of
the smaller members of the current coalition government have
committed to supporting Kosor as the new premier, but all
have indicated they will seek new coalition agreements and
will table new demands of the HDZ. Press reports indicate
that Kosor can count on at least 83 votes of the 153 seat
parliament, and the HDZ is hoping that Croatian President
Stjepan Mesic will give the mandate for Kosor to form a new
government quickly. For his part, Mesic said publicly that
he would utilize his right to consult all party chiefs before
awarding the mandate to form the next government. However,
privately Mesic advisors told the Ambassador that Mesic would
almost certainly give Kosor the mandate. Mesic, per the
consititution, reminded citizens that Sanader remains the
acting prime minister until the Sabor convenes and formally
accepts Sanader,s resignation. Meanwhile the main
opposition parties are pushing for early parliamentary
elections and, along with many press commentaries, are
stressing that Sanader bailed-out on Croatia amidst a crisis
and argued Kosor,s premiership would be illegitimate in the

eyes of voters.

OLD NAMES BUT NEW MINISTRIES


3. (U) The departure of Sanader and the pending elevation of
Kosor has caused a few changes to the cabinet. Bozidar
Pankretic of the Peasant Party will fill Kosor,s position as
Deputy Prime Minister and will switch portfolios with the
HDZ,s Petar Cobankovic; Pankretic will take over the
Minister of Regional Development (making him a key player on
refugee return issues) and Cobankovic will move back to his
previous position as Minister of Agriculture. Tomislav Ivic,
a parliamentarian who participated in an Embassy-organized
NATO tour, will take over Kosor,s position as head of the
Ministry of Family, Veterans' Affairs and Intergenerational
Solidarity. Two new minister posts were created. Bianca
Matkovic (formerly Sanader,s Chief of Staff and currently a
State Secretary in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) will
become a Minister without Portfolio to coordinate, inter
alia, Croatia,s EU bid; and Davorin Mlakar return to a
resurrected Ministry of Administration (which he headed in
the 1990's). Education Minister Dragan Primorac resigned his
position after he learned of Sanader,s decision and no
replacement for his ministry has yet been named. Also,
current Justice Minister Ivan Simonovic refused to answer
reporters, questions about whether he would stay in his
position when Kosor takes over.

HDZ SHAKEUP: SNOW WHITE AND THE SEVEN DINOSAURS?


4. (SBU) In addition to being the prime minister designate,
Kosor will also assume Sanader's position as President of the
HDZ at this Saturday,s (July 4) annual party congress. This
congress will also see Health Minister Darko Milinovic
installed as Deputy President of the party and six members of
the HDZ's current executive committee elevated to the role of
party Vice President. The elevation of Petar Cobankovic,
Bozidar Kalmeta, Andrija Hebrang, Vladimir Seks, Ivan
Jarnjak, and Ivan Suker marks the re-ascendancy of several of
the more conservative and nationalistic founding members of
the HDZ.

PM RESIGNATION WITHOUT CLEAR REASON, BUT THEORIES ABOUND


5. (C) As noted reftel, Sanader's July 1 resignation gave no
details why he was leaving his post, nor for the timing of
the decision. Sanader said only that his "strategic goals

ZAGREB 00000407 002.2 OF 002


are accomplished;" stated he was ready for a new beginning
after years in politics; and made vague reference, in
response to a reporter's question, to the frustration he felt
regarding Croatia,s stalled EU bid. However, most political
observers, including almost his cabinet ministers, and all of
his coalition partners, were caught off-guard. Close Sanader
confidants, Minister of Culture Bozo Biskupic and MFA State
Secrtary Matkovic, both confided to the Ambassador that they
did not learn of Sanader,s decision until shortly before his
public announcement and could only conclude that Sanader was
"tired" and needed a break. Parliamentary Speaker Luka
Bebic, who was, along with Kosor, one of the first to be
informed of Sanader's decision on the evening of June 28 was
particularly critical of the EU process as being a cause for
Sanader,s frustration, and in fact some media speculate that
Sanader,s resignation was, in part, intended to highlight to
the EU how destabilizing Slovenia,s blockade of Croatia,s
EU bid has become.


6. (C) Media reports and commentators have speculated on more
than a half-dozen potential explanations for Sanader's
resignation, ranging from family health issues to blackmail
to a "right wing coup" within the HDZ. All of the HDZ
insiders we spoke to, however, were emphatic that Sanader's
announced departure from politics -- including his statement
that he will not run for President -- was genuine, motivated
by a sense that it was time to step aside, and not part of a
plan to eventually run for President. Political insiders
from outside the HDZ, such as Serb MP and coalition partner
Milorad Pupovac, or Democratic Center president Vesna Skare
Ozbolt, are more inclined to believe that Sanader is
pre-positioning himself for a run at the Croatian presidency
in December and will re-emerge in the coming months as a
candidate, without having to shoulder responsibility for
Croatia,s current troubles.

COMMENT


7. (C) The reason or reasons for Sanader,s withdrawal from
the premiership remain opaque, but HDZ insiders claim that
this is not a ploy for Sanader to run for presidency down the
road. No matter what the cause, his departure and the new
leadership will take the HDZ and very likely the new
government in a more conservative direction. The current
border impasse with Slovenia is almost sure to mean a Kosor
government will focus on preparing the HDZ for the upcoming
presidential elections first, and responding to Croatia,s
weakening economy second, with EU membership coming in a
distant third. END COMENT
BRADTKE