LOCAL ELECTIONS HIGHLIGHT STRENGTHS OF BIG PARTIES

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000276

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR EUR/SCE AND EUR/PPD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS HIGHLIGHT STRENGTHS OF BIG PARTIES

REF: A. 09ZAGREB268

B. 09ZAGREB229


1. (U) SUMMARY: High turnout marked Sundays, local
elections and the results contrasted the differing strengths
between the two largest parties. The ruling Croatian
Democratic Union (HDZ) along with coalition partners won the
largest number of county prefects and should hold sway in
nearly fifteen of twenty county assemblies. The main
opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP),did well
in mayoral races in many of Croatia,s largest cities.
Leaders of both the HDZ and SDP said the results were in line
with their expectations and that they were pleased with the
results. Election observers noted no serious irregularities
and there have been no accusations of fraud by any of the
major parties in Croatia. Several city and county races did
not have clear winner -- a candidate receiving more than 50
percent of the vote -- meaning those ballots will go to a
second round run-off election on Sunday, May 31 between the
top two candidates. END SUMMARY

NO REAL SURPISES

2. (U) As expected, the HDZ with its main coalition partner
the Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) won, or is likely to win in
the runoff, as many as fourteen out of twenty county prefect
positions. The HDZ-HSS ticket cleanly won the county prefect
race in Bjelovar, Koprivnica, Lika, Virovitica, Vukovar,
Zagreb County, and Zadar, and is well positioned to win the
prefect in the second round run-off in Brod-Posavina,
Dubrovnik, Karlovac, Sibenik, and Split. The HDZ-HSS mayoral
candidates in Croatia's four largest cities (Zagreb, Split,
Rijeka, and Osijek) gained few votes, however, with none even
making it into a second round. Senior HDZ members downplayed
the defeats in the big cities and noted that HDZ was strong
at the county level and in smaller cities, winnning around 50
percent of all mayors and city council seats.

3. (U) The SDP won a landslide in Croatia,s third largest
town, Rijeka, and is likely to hold on to the mayor,s job in
the capital city of Zagreb, which will be decided in a runoff
between the incumbent SDP mayor, Milan Bandic, and an
independent candidate. SDP leader Zoran Milanovic
characterized the election results as excellent and stressed
the SDP,s strong showing in all the major city council
races. The SDP is going to push hard to win the run-off
election in Split, Croatia,s second largest city and Prime
Minister Ivo Sanader's hometown, where SDP heavyweight Ranko
Ostojic will face off with independent business magnate
Zeljko Kerum.
NO SERIOUS ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES

4. (U) Election monitors trained by Croatia,s main
democracy-oriented NGO, GONG, noted only a few minor
deviations from Croatia,s voting laws. The NGO indicated
that many of the major parties violated the 24 pre-election
silence period by continuing to hand out flyers and send
text-messages to supporters. Similarly, there were no
significant cases of ethnic discrimination. Several bus
loads of ethnic Serbs travelled from Serbia and elsewhere in
the region to Croatia to vote in municipalities where they
have registered property and voting rights, largely without
incident. One bus which carried Serbs from Bosnia to Knin to
vote was stoned in a parking lot and sustained about $1500
worth of damage; the bus was empty at the time of the
incident and no one was injured.

5. (SBU) COMMENT: The election results contained no real
surprises. Despite economic headwinds, the main parties of
the ruling coalition, the HDZ and HSS, avoided any serious
electoral setback and actually made some modest gains at the
county-level. The SDP, while it could not translate the poor
economy into electoral gold, still has defended its major
holdings and this satisfactory result will help quell
discontent in the SDP ranks with Milanovic,s leadership.
Both the HDZ and SDP are well positioned to claim momentum
going forward and both parties will soon be turning their
attention to the presidential race set to play-out in the
second half of the year. END COMMENT
BRADTKE