CROATIA-SLOVENIA: NO PROGRESS ON BORDER ISSUE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000148

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR NATO EU
SUBJECT: CROATIA-SLOVENIA: NO PROGRESS ON BORDER ISSUE,
SLOVENE ASSURANCES ON NATO

REF: A. ZAGREB 107

B. EUR/RPM E-MAIL 3/17/2009

Classified By: Ambassador Robert A. Bradtke for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. In a March 18 meeting with the Ambassador,
Croatian Foreign Minister Jandrokovic reported that there was
no substantive progress on resolving the Croatia-Slovenia
border dispute during his March 17 meeting with Slovene
Foreign Minister Zbogar and EC Commissioner Rehn. On
Slovenia's ratification of Croatia's accession to NATO,
Zbogar assured Jandrokovic that the Slovenian government
would be able to terminate the referendum process early and
expected to ratify by March 30. On Croatia's own
ratification process, Jandrokovic told the Ambassador that
the Croatian cabinet had approved the accession protocol that
day, and the Croatian (Sabor) parliament would vote next
week. The Ambassador reviewed for Jandrokovic the U.S.
"worst case" scenario in the event Slovene ratification was
delayed until the eve of the NATO Summit. End summary.


2. (C) On March 18, Croatian Foreign Minister Jandrokovic,
accompanied by State Secretary Davor Bozinovic, briefed the
Ambassador on the latest round of talks with Slovenia on the
Croatian-Slovenian border dispute. Jandrokovic said that the
atmosphere at his meeting with Slovene Foreign Minister
Zbogar and EC Commissioner Rehn in Brussels on March 17 had
been "better" than in their previous meeting. However, there
was no substantive progress. The Croatian and Slovenian
positions remained unchanged. Croatia continued to insist
that the final arbitration should only take place at the
International Court of Justice, a position rejected by
Slovenia in favor of a settlement to be decided by a wise
persons group, chaired by former Finish President Athisaari.
Jandrokovic said that Zbogar had reiterated Slovenia's
refusal to unblock any chapters in Croatia's EU accession
negotiations until agreement was reached on arbitration.


3. (C) Neither Minister, commented Jandrokovic, had any real
negotiating mandate. However, they had been able to at least
discuss various formulas, including whether there could be
"parallel" arbitration and mediation processes, which would
deal with different aspects of the dispute. In that context,
Jandrokovic reiterated Croatian willingness to provide
Slovenia with "the most favorable guarantees possible" of its
access to international waters and to agree to joint
management of resources in Piran Bay. However, the border
itself would need to be resolved by an international court.
Zbogar had rejected this approach.


4. (C) Jandrokovic also said that he had also proposed, as a
confidence building measure, reviving the failed French
effort from last December to produce a joint statement that
no document from either side should prejudice the final
settlement of the border. Zbogar had welcomed the idea, but
said it would not result in unblocking any of the EU
chapters, making it of little value from Croatia's point of
view.


5. (C) Summing up, Jandrokovic saw little prospect of
progress on the border issue and advancing negotiations with
the EU, and little likelihood that EU countries would apply
any pressure on Slovenia to ease its position. Indeed, said
Jandrokovic, it was increasingly clear that some EU countries
were "not unhappy" that the enlargement process was slowing.


6. (C) On Slovenia's ratification of Croatia's accession to
NATO, Jandrokovic said that Zbogar had assured him that the
Slovene government's plan was to bring the referendum process
to a close quickly after the expiration on March 26 of the
thirty-five day period for gathering the required 40,000
signatures for a referendum. Zbogar had suggested that
Slovenia might be in a position to complete the ratification
process by March 30. Jandrokovic noted that the Croatian
cabinet had that day (March 18) given its formal approval to
Croatia's own accession document, and that it would be sent
to the Sabor for approval next week, possibly March 26.


7. (C) The Ambassador commented that the U.S. had heard
similarly positive statements from the Slovene government
about completing its ratification process. While the U.S.
hoped that this would be the case and there would be
sufficient time to complete the process in a more orderly
fashion, it was also prudent to prepare for the possibility
that Slovene ratification might come only at the last minute.
The Ambassador shared with the Minister the "Plan B"
timeline prepared by Washington (Ref B),and urged the
Croatian government to ensure that in this "worst" case, it

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would be ready to complete all necessary actions in a timely
fashion. Jandrokovic, although somewhat taken aback by the
prospect that the complex process of depositing all the
instruments of ratification might be concluded only hours
before the NATO summit begins, nevertheless agreed it was
important to be prepared and to ensure that the Croatian side
was ready.
BRADTKE