UNDP 2008 HUMAN DEVT REPORT: CLIMATE CHANGE AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000103

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE, OES/EGC, OES/PCI, AND
EEB/ESC/IEC/ENR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV KGHG HR
SUBJECT: UNDP 2008 HUMAN DEVT REPORT: CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ITS IMPACTS ON SOCIETY AND ECONOMY IN CROATIA


1. Summary: On February 16, UNDP released its 2008 Human
Development Report for Croatia, which analyzes the links
between climate change, the economy, and human development.
While expected warmer temperatures could have good or bad
effects on tourism in Croatia, rising sea-levels and
increased frequency in droughts and other severe weather
events will have mostly negative effects on the country and
its economy. The report estimates that significant emissions
reductions can be achieved through cost-saving and
cost-neutral measures. Implementing a fuller range of options
to bring emissions to 30 percent below 1990 levels by 2020,
however, could cost EUR 115-536 million per year. A key
strength for Croatia as it works to meet the challenges of
climate change is overwhelming public support for taking
action to reduce emissions. End summary.


2. On February 16, UNDP released its 2008 Human Development
Report for Croatia, which for the first time analyzes the
links between climate change, the economy, and human
development. Speaking at the release event, UNDP Resident
Representative in Croatia Yuri Afanasiev said the report was
not intended to preach doom or inspire fear. He said that
while analysis indicates climate change likely poses serious
threats to human development in Croatia, it also has
potential to bring some beneficial opportunities. He said
strong public support for actions to counter climate change
also will help Croatia rise to the challenges it may face. In
his remarks at the event, President Mesic said now is the
time to act to mitigate climate change, and the economic
crisis should not be used as an excuse for delay.

Strong Public Support for Action on Climate Change
--------------


3. The report included the first ever comprehensive survey on
public attitudes toward climate change in Croatia. The
findings indicate 96 percent of Croatians believe climate
change is a problem, and most say a serious problem.
Croatians overwhelmingly believe the country should do as
much as (37 percent) or more than (54 percent) developed
countries in reducing emissions. Nearly 70 percent of
respondents said they were willing to pay more for
electricity that does not emit greenhouse gases, compared to
44 percent across the EU.

A Warmer Croatia: Bad or Good for Tourism?
--------------


4. During the 20th century, Croatia experienced decreasing
precipitation and increasing temperatures. Climate models
indicate this trend of a drier, hotter Croatia will continue.
The trend will likely affect tourism, Croatia's key industry.
The report cites long-term projections that hotter
temperatures along the Adriatic Coast will prompt tourists to
opt for cooler destinations in the north, which could have
serious adverse effects on coastal communities and even the
national economy. The report also notes, however, that warmer
temperatures could alternatively have a positive effect on
tourism by lengthening the tourist season or creating two
seasons, in spring and autumn.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Droughts
--------------


5. With its many miles of coastline and numerous islands,
Croatia may face significant vulnerability to sea-level rise.
According to rudimentary analysis in the report, a rise of 50
cm would submerge over 100 square kilometers of land, while a
rise of 88 cm would submerge over 112 million square
kilometers. The report notes that any rise will be gradual,
so there is time to develop the best mitigation measures for
specific locations. Climate change could also lead to more
droughts in Croatia. Initial projections indicate that
resulting decreases in river flow could cause a loss of EUR
17-86 million per year from hydropower losses alone, with
multiplier effects throughout the economy. The findings in
the report suggest agriculture will suffer the most severe
impacts of climate change, as weather-related disasters
increase in frequency in Croatia, as throughout the world.
Already in 2000-2007, extreme weather events resulted in
average losses for Croatian agriculture of EUR 176 million
per year, or 0.6 percent of GDP.

Mitigation Costs: From Small Economic Benefit to Big Costs
--------------


6. The report says many "no regrets" mitigation measures
(mostly related to energy efficiency) would actually save
money and benefit the economy. Many other measures would be

ZAGREB 00000103 002 OF 002


cost-neutral or cost relatively small amounts. The report
estimates Croatia could stabilize emissions at about 30
million tons with a slight economic benefit due to energy
savings. At the other extreme, Croatia theoretically could
reduce emissions 30 percent below baseline 1990 levels of 36
million tons by 2020, but at a cost of EUR 115-536 million
per year.

Comment
--------------


7. Although the current economic crisis may somewhat dampen
enthusiasm, the strong public support for climate change
mitigation shown in this survey should be welcome news for
the GOC. With this message of support, as well as indications
of possible dire consequences, this report is well timed as
the parliament deliberates over a national energy strategy
with very ambitious renewable energy goals.
BRADTKE