FM OSKANIAN CRITICIZES TURKEY-ARMENIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000332

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019
TAGS: POGV PREL TU AJ AM
SUBJECT: FM OSKANIAN CRITICIZES TURKEY-ARMENIA
NORMALIZATION PROCESS

REF: A. YEREVAN 306

B. YEREVAN 307

C. YERVAN 319

Classified By: Amabassador Marie Yovanovitch. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 5, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian
shared his critical views of Turkey-Armenia normalization.
On content, he said that Armenia had traded away "genocide"
recognition for illusory progress in Turkey-Armenia
negotiations. Turkey, he claimed, is now holding Armenia
hostage to a Nagorno-Karabakh resolution favorable to
Azerbaijan. On process, Oskanian insisted Armenia had lost
control of the Turkey-Armenia negotiations to Turkey, which
is now meddling in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations.
Oskanian,s views closely mirror those of others in
Yerevan,s elite (Refs),but in his case, at least, there is
more than a little bit of self-interest and a need to defend
his own record. END SUMMARY.

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Barn-Burning Speech Criticizing Rapprochement
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2. (C) The Ambassador spoke with former Foreign Minister
Vartan Oskanian over lunch at the Residence on May 5.
Oskanian shared highlights from a speech he delivered on
Remembrance Day in Beirut, Lebanon, the heart of Armenian
nationalism. Oskanian heavily criticized the April 22
Armenian Joint Statement with Turkey on normalizing relations
and other overtures of the current Armenian Government toward
Azerbaijan on resolving the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K).
In his speech(forwarded to CARC),Oskanian said that the
proposal to establish a joint historical commission was
simply another attempt by Turkey to manipulate Armenia into
relinquishing "genocide" recognition. Oskanian noted that
Turkey was more focused on the process rather than the
substance that would govern normalizing relations with
Armenia and that Turkey had already achieved its first
success by staving off a U.S. recognition of the "genocide"
for one more year. The most troubling aspect, according to
Oskanian, was Turkey,s expectation of a Nagorno-Karabakh
resolution and Turkey,s ability to now - after the April 22
joint statement - simply wait for a resolution on Azeri
terms. He also stated that Armenia's willingness to renounce
all territorial claims against Turkey must not include a
concomitant abandonment of seeking justice for losing the
lands it occupied for thousands of years.

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"GENOCIDE" RECONITION IS NOT NEGOTIABLE
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3. (C) In his remarks to the Ambassador, Oskanian stated
that he supported normalizing relations with Turkey under the
right conditions and that the current approach of the
Armenian Government was ineffective and potentially dangerous
for the country. Oskanian alleged that the Turks had
manipulated the negotiation process in their favor and that
they had no intention of de-linking resolution of N-K as a
negotiating point prior to normalizing relations with
Armenia.


4. (C) Oskanian cited the April 22 date of the
Turkey-Armenia Joint Statement as a sign of this, since it
preempted Remembrance Day, a hallowed time of Armenian Unity.
Oskanian said that if the timing of the statement was
coincidental, it showed a callous disregard for Armenian
collective emotions. If not, it represented a political
blunder of enormous proportion, because it revealed that
"genocide" recognition was now a matter for negotiation, and
a matter of concern only an issue for the Diaspora, not
Armenians, which he termed unacceptable. Oskanian stated
that there had been no concrete success to speak of yet, and
Turkey was now squarely in the middle of the Nagarno-Karabakh
negotiations and working with the Azeris against Armenia.
Finally he stated that calling the process of normalization a
"road map" was a bad idea due to the parallels it drew with
the long and drawn-out Israeli-Palestinian peace
process.

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CONFIDENTIALITY IS KEY TO AVOID TURKISH TRICKS
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5. (C) Rightly claiming the credit for starting bilateral

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talks through the Swiss Government, Oskanian noted that he
had pursued the negotiations only on condition of absolute
confidentiality. He said that he had always told his Turkish
interlocutors that Armenia would deny all knowledge of
negotiations if the Turkish Government prematurely tried to
use the talks as a sign of progress. However, Oskanian
assessed that the current Armenian Government had terribly
miscalculated Turkish intent regarding the April 22 Joint
Statement. The result, he said, it is that Armenia and
President Sargsian were now under enormous pressure to
deliver a Turkey-Armenia agreement that was favorable to both
the Armenian populace and the Diaspora -- and clearly
demonstrate that he is not selling out N-K. Oskanian stated
that Turkey and the U.S. had now taken the initiative in the
normalization process and had essentially left Armenia
without control over current developments, a mistake former
President Kocharian would never have made.

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"I SUPPORT NORMALIZATION"
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6. (C) Commenting on the N-K resolution process, Oskanian
said that if Turkey opened the border without preconditions,
it would actually ease Armenia's security demands and by
extension its willingness to move forward productively in its
talks with Azerbaijan. Oskanian argued that with an open
border Turkey would be better positioned to play a
constructive role in the region, but not before hand.


7. (C) While Oskanian heavily criticized the actions of
President Sargsian, he did not believe that the current
problems with the "road map" or Madrid process were
insurmountable. He noted that all Turkey-Armenia issues are
solvable with political will and diplomatic finesse.
However, he noted that all further negotiations should be
kept quiet, so not to allow Turkey the opportunity to
manipulate the process and claim progress where there was
none. Stating that the Dashaks had no choice but to resign
from government due to the vociferous reaction against the
joint statement among the party,s patrons in the diaspora,
he said the Dashnak departure did not cripple the ruling
coalition, but had further reduced the President's
maneuvering room on Turkey and N-K.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) The understandable desire to defend his own record
aside, Oskanian,s views mirror the broad majority of
Armenian elite thinking (reftels). Archrivals and former
presidents, Kocharian and Ter-Petrossian have little in
common, but on this, they at least publically agree. This
means that President Sargsian has a uphill task in swinging
Armenian support behind his Turkish-Armenia Rapprochement
policy.
YOVANOVITCH