SPEAKER PROMISES DOMESTIC BREAKTHROUGHS IN JUNE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000299

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM EAID AZ TU AM
SUBJECT: SPEAKER PROMISES DOMESTIC BREAKTHROUGHS IN JUNE

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Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) On April 27 EUR DAS Matthew Brzya met with National
Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian to discuss progress on
normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia.
Abrahamian said he fully supported President Sargsian's move
to normalize ties, and would actively promote its benefits to
Armenian society. He said that the agreement would expose
the President politically, and urged the United States to
support Sargsian at this critical juncture, specifically by
fully funding the MCC program. The Speaker also promised a
breakthrough on the political detainees issue by late June,
which would free Armenia's hand to make even more progress on
Turkey and the NK conflict. DAS Brzya said he welcomed the
Speaker's support on Turkey-Armenia, and that the United
States was ready to use all of its prestige to further
support the breakthrough. He said the United States was
committed to the MCC program, and that Armenia's authorities
should view the program as a way to restore public trust.
Bryza stressed that the promised breakthroughs should come
sooner rather than later, in view of the upcoming June MCC
Board meeting in Washington. END SUMMARY.

PARLIAMENT SUPPORTS PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S DIPLOMACY
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2. (C) On April 27, EUR DAS Matthew Bryza met with National
Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian to brief him on his recent
efforts to broker the Turkish-Armenia road map agreed by
Ankara and Yerevan on April 23. Abrahamian expressed
Armenia's gratitude to DAS Brzya and the U.S. Government for
actively promoting regional stability and security. He said
he fully supported President Sargsian's brave move on the
Armenia-Turkey agreement on a road map to normalize
relations, which was announced April 23. He appreciated DAS
Bryza's highlighting that normalization of Armenia-Turkey
ties and settlement of the NK conflict were separate
processes that nevertheless would positively affect each
other. The Speaker said the National Assembly fully
supported Armenia-Turkey normalization, that it saw no
linkage between the April 22 joint statement and the issue of
recognizing the Armenian Genocide, and opined that normalized
ties with Turkey would finally connect Armenia to Europe and
reduce Armenia's dependency on Georgia. Abrahamian declared
that normalized ties with Turkey would benefit all Armenian
citizens in concrete ways, for example in the reduction of
the cost of imported items, whose shipping costs would be
reduced several times by coming through Turkey instead of
Georgia.

PRESIDENT IN A DIFFICULT SPOT
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3. (C) Abrahamian cautioned, however, that the new agreement
has complicated President Sargsian's domestic political
situation. He noted that just an hour before the meeting the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation party (ARF; aka Dashnaks),
a junior member of the four-party ruling coalition, had
decided to leave the coalition in protest of the agreement.
The Speaker stated that President Sargsian had known the
Dashnaks might bolt the coalition if he backed the agreement,
but took the risk anyway because of his conviction that
normalized ties were in the interest of Armenia's people.
Abrahamian said the President had been taking heat since last
fall, when he invited Turkish President Gul to Yerevan for a
Turkey-Armenia soccer match. He added that the "radical
opposition" also sought to take advantage of the issuance of
the joint statement on April 22, arguing that President
Sargsian backed it in order to help President Obama avoid
having to use the word "genocide" in his April 24 statement.


4. (C) The Speaker stressed that for normalization to be
successful, there would have to be some quick, positive
developments, such as the border opening, and that Turkey
would have to deliver to keep Armenia supportive of the
normalization process. He told DAS Bryza that he planned an
active discussion of the road map's contents by the National
Assembly, and that he had already agreed with Foreign
Minister Nalbandian that the latter come to Parliament to
explain the agreed plan to party faction leaders. Abrahamian
said that he would energize the National Assembly so that its
members would actively discuss and publicize the road map,
explain it to the public and win understanding and support of
President Sargsian's initiative. Abrahamian stated that it
was time to "prepare" society to understand the authorities'
viewpoints on normalization of ties.


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5. (C) DAS Bryza commended the Speaker on his planned
outreach efforts, and concurred it was time to pursue this in
the light of real chances for normalization or Armenia-Turkey
ties. Brzya thought that the opposition's criticism of the
agreement ran counter to Armenia's national interests, as the
agreement and normalized ties would result in the concrete
improvement of almost every Armenians, life. Bryza noted
that the criticism likely was more of a short-term election
tactic -- with Yerevan's first ever City Council election
looming on May 31 -- than the true thinking of the
opposition, which had supported normalization of ties without
preconditions when it was in power in the 1990s.

ACKNOWLEDGE SARGSIAN'S RISK-TAKING BY SUPPORTING HIM
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6. (C) Abrahamian said that the Europeans and the United
States should support President Sargsian in view of his
support of the agreement and the complications it had created
for his political position. Abrahamian stressed that
Sargsian backed the agreement even though he knew it would
compromise his domestic image. On top of the complications
posed by the agreement, President Sargsian was also facing
the mounting local effects of the global economic crisis and
"other circumstances" at home. (Note: We assume Abrahamian
meant by "other circumstances" the continued imprisonment of
approximately 60 opposition supporters. End Note)


7. (C) Abrahamian said one way the U.S. could support
Sargsian now was by restoring full funding to the MCC
program. The Speaker noted that if the MCC was truly an
assistance program and not a political tool, the Armenian
people should not be punished for the "actions of the
authorities." The Speaker said that President Sargsian was
personally committed to funding MCC projects even if the
United States chose not to restore the funds it had
suspended, and that Sargsian would see to it that Armenia
carry out the entire program, even if it takes longer to
implement than would otherwise be the case with full U.S.
funding. Abrahamian added that full USG support of the MCC
would testify to a "warming-up" of US-Armenian ties.


8. (C) DAS Bryza agreed that the United States wished success
for the MCC program in Armenia, and acknowledged the
importance of the program in bettering the lives of
Armenians. But he also told the Speaker that it was a
vehicle with which the authorities could regain the people's
trust. He highlighted to Abrahamian that the purpose of
establishing an MCC Compact was to affirm that the country in
question shared with the United States a commitment to
expanding political and economic freedom. The MCC Board
would decide whether to continue the rural roads program in
Armenia on the basis of its assessment of whether Armenia was
fulfilling democracy and human rights criteria (e.g., ruling
justly).


9. (C) Abrahamian said that while President Sargsian is
committed to democratization, it will take time for democracy
to evolve in Armenia. He said the president was committed to
resolving domestic issues peacefully, is open to compromise,
and does not seek to force his will on others. But
cultivating compromise in Armenia is not easy, and President
Sargsian needs help to achieve his vision and implement his
priorities. Abrahamian reiterated that he and the National
Assembly stand behind the president, and will become more
active reaching out to society as a mediator between society
and the authorities. Abrahamian said he wanted to make the
National Assembly a forum for the expression of diverse
viewpoints in this regard, and said he viewed criticism and
debate as a healthy means to achieve an optimal result.


10. (C) DAS Brzya commended President Sargsian as a bold
leader who is often willing to compromise -- as his personal
support of the Armenia-Turkey agreement showed. Brzya also
stated that the National Assembly's support of President
Sargsian's statesmanship through debates and public
discussions would be healthy indicators of a democratic
approach to the issue. Bryza promised the Speaker that the
U.S. Government would strongly support the Armenia-Turkey
agreement , and would actively work to show that the
agreement would positively affect negotiations on the NK
conflict. Bryza said he was already starting to explain the
USG's view and its support of the agreement to Armenia's
public.

SPEAKER PREDICTS JUNE BREAKTHROUGHS ON DETAINEES
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11. (C) Bryza expressed hope that President Sargsian would
duplicate his boldness and compromise on foreign policy

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issues in the domestic arena, and urged Armenia's authorities
to promptly seek a legal way out of the detainees issue.
Brzya noted that 21 of the 55 political detainees have
already served one-third of their sentences, which makes them
eligible for early release provided they possess a record of
good conduct while in confinement. Bryza said such a release
would send a positive "shock wave" through
Armenian politics.


12. (C) Abrahamian said he personally regretted the March 1
events of 2008, and that both Armenia and President Sargsian
had lost a year to move forward on development and
democratization. He confided to Bryza that he has discussed
the release issue with president, but said he was opposed to
amnesty, and would oppose it if brought before the
parliament. He said it was necessary for all of the court
cases underway to finish before an early release could be
considered.


13. (C) The Speaker insisted that the authorities did not
want anybody spending more time in jail than necessary, but
that all of the court hearings were set to finish by late
June -- and that this would be the "best timing" for a
release. (Note: The Speaker joked to DAS Bryza and the
Ambassador that &sometimes my opinion reflects what really
happens later." End Note) Abrahamian added that by the end
of June "everything will be clear," and the authorities will
then be prepared to do more on Turkey, the NK conflict and
improving the economy.

YEREVAN ELECTION TO BE CLEAN, BUT SEEKS EMBASSY'S HELP
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14. (C) Abrahamian complained that the "radical opposition"
was doing everything to blemish the upcoming May 31 Yerevan
city council election (in which Yerevan's mayor will be
indirectly elected),that it would undertake provocative
activities, and that the authorities "have to do our best to
prevent this." He declared that Yerevan's citizens
understand that opposition leader -- and former president --
Levon Ter-Petrossian cannot be a successful mayor, and that
what the city really needs is a manager, not a politician who
only knows how to talk. Abrahamian predicted that the ruling
coalition will net 70-80 percent of the vote and be able to
work together within the council to address Yerevan's issues,
boasting that "we (the ruling Republican Party) always share
our successes with our partners." He promised that the
authorities will do everything to ensure a free and fair
election.


15. (C) Abrahamian then appealed to Ambassador Yovanovitch to
ensure that justice prevails in the election, that the
Embassy be wary of opposition provocations, and that she
personally point out to the Armenian public when provocations
take place. The Speaker reiterated President Sargsian's
commitment to democratization, but stated that "we need your
assistance" during the election period. He said he would be
the first to mention if "there are any mistakes" made during
the election. He then affirmed that "it will be President
Sargsian who will normalize relations with Turkey and settle
the NK conflict." The Speaker then opined that "if you see a
country trying to make things better in the region, the
United States should help it."


16. (C) DAS Brzya welcomed the Speaker's prediction that
positive developments on the detainees issue were imminent,
and expressed hope that the breakthroughs would indeed
materialize. But while he acknowledged that approving a
presidential amnesty of detainees was the Speaker's
prerogative, DAS Bryza urged the Speaker to help arrive at a
solution that would be taken sooner rather than later, even
before late June. Ambassador Yovanovitch emphasized to the
Speaker that the MCC board members who would be meeting in
June to discuss Armenia would be expecting some positive
developments by then, and joined DAS Bryza in urging an
earlier release of the detainees.


17. (U) EUR DAS Bryza cleared this cable.

YOVANOVITCH