PACE RAPPORTEURS FORESHADOW COMPROMISE TO POSTPONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000026

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM COE AM
SUBJECT: PACE RAPPORTEURS FORESHADOW COMPROMISE TO POSTPONE
ARMENIAN SUSPENSION

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Classified By: DCM Joseph Pennington, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: PACE rapporteurs John Prescott and Georges
Colombier debriefed the CoE member state ambassadors (and a
few other invited diplomatic representatives) January 15 on
the results of their meetings in Yerevan. They revealed that
they had reached agreement with the GOAM on a proposal to
postpone a PACE vote to suspend Armenia's voting rights, in
exchange for a written set of Armenian commitments to
implement a specified set of reforms on an agreed timetable.
The rapporteurs did not reveal the substance of the agreed
reforms or the timeframe. Prescott hinted that a focus would
be the vague language and evidentiary standards of Armenia's
criminal code articles at issue in the post-election trials,
such as "usurpation of power," "committing mass disorders,"
and murder charges. The rapporteurs have an accurately
jaundiced understanding of the role of political bias in the
criminal justice system. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Polchief attended a debriefing by PACE rapporteurs
John Prescott and Georges Colombier in Yerevan late January
15 at the end of their day-long Armenia visit. Prescott
presented their findings, commenting that PACE wants to take
the right approach to preserve maximimum influence on
improving Armenia's democracy and human rights situation.
Without revealing anything about the substance, Prescott
revealed that he and Colombier had that day reached an
agreement in principle with President Serzh Sargsian and
Parliament Speaker Hovik Abrahamian. The Armenian side had
promised to undertake a series of specific reforms on an
agreed timetable. In exchange, Prescott and Colombier would
recommend to the PACE Monitoring Committee and to the full
Assembly that Armenia again be given more time to work.
Prescott and Colombier said they would need to see the full
proposal in writing from the GOAM before they would commit
themselves.


3. (C) Several European ambassadors (Germany, UK, Poland,
and OSCE Office CDA) and polchief spoke up to caution
Prescott and Colombier that Armenian democratic/human rights
reform has gone through distinct stages of fits and starts
over the past year. At times, the GOAM has been galvanized
by international pressure to make positive steps, while at
other points the GOAM has taken the mistaken impression that
it had dropped from the international agenda and no longer
needed to work on its reform agenda. During such times
(notably throughout the fall of 2008) progress had slowed to
a virtual stop. The ambassadors generally agreed that
Prescott and Colombier's strategy to offer Armenia
postponement of a suspension decision, in exchange for
specific reform commitments, could be a good one, so long as
it is presented with clear messaging that the additional
postponement does not mean that Armenia is now off the hook.


4. (C) Prescott shared some more general comments about the
democracy/human rights scene in Armenia. Notably, he shared
his disquiet that Armenian criminal justice seemed thoroughly
politicized, and that the government and law enforcement
started from a clear pre-supposition of opposition guilt --
and then worked to ensure that the "facts" supported this
initial presumption. He questioned the objectivity and
integrity of the Prosecutor General, in particular, on this
score. He expressed concerns about the government's
mechanisms for pardons, noting that this procedure requires
defendants to confess guilt and make individual appeals for
clemency, which many would not be willing to do. Prescott
said he had challenged the PG and other officials regarding
their apparent lack of evidentiary basis to impute to
opposition activists an intention to overthrow the government
or to commit murder in the context of committing "mass
disorder," as they are now charged. He also said he pressed
the PG on the lack of any criminal investigations or official
inquiry into police conduct in connection with the ten
deaths. He also noted, however, that the opposition does not
always act in good faith, for example in its campaign of
disruptions of court trial proceedings.


5. (C) Prescott noted that he and Colombier have gotten a
lot of pushback from GOAM officials that Armenia is being
judged more harshly by PACE than have other member countries.
He conceded that this argument was not entirely without
merit -- something which has been whispered often around the
Yerevan diplomatic corps -- but said that he has stuck to the
argument that he and Colombier have been tasked only with
evaluating Armenia and are seeking to do that job as honestly
and fairly as possible. They cannot be responsible for how
PACE judges Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia, or any other CoE
member countries that Armenians may invoke as evidence of an
alleged PACE double standard.


6. (C) COMMENT: Prescott (and presumably Colombier, who

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said little) seems to have a generally sound grasp of the
issues and dynamics in play in the local political and human
rights situation. We think the proposed approach is a good
one, so long as their is a clear message from PACE that this
latitude is not open-ended and that clear progress must be
shown. Prescott did not seem to appreciate, however, the
degree to which PACE's previous time extension had been
misread by Armenian authorities as implying that serious PACE
interest in the matter had ended. Combined with other mixed
messages from the international community, this meant that
the closing months of 2008 were essentially lost in terms of
forward progress on democracy and human rights reform. That
said, PACE has overall been the single most constructive
international forum for holding Armenia's feet to the fire in
2008 on its democracy and human rights commitments.
YOVANOVITCH