Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09YEREVAN201
2009-03-23 08:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

SPEAKER LEANS FORWARD ON MARCH 1 DETAINEES,

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM COE GG TU AJ RU AM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6844
RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHYE #0201/01 0820844
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 230844Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8844
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1705
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000201 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM COE GG TU AJ RU AM
SUBJECT: SPEAKER LEANS FORWARD ON MARCH 1 DETAINEES,
ASSURES OF CLEAN MAYOR'S RACE, RAISES REGIONAL NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A. 08 YEREVAN 864

B. YEREVAN 26

YEREVAN 00000201 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: AMB. Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000201

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM COE GG TU AJ RU AM
SUBJECT: SPEAKER LEANS FORWARD ON MARCH 1 DETAINEES,
ASSURES OF CLEAN MAYOR'S RACE, RAISES REGIONAL NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A. 08 YEREVAN 864

B. YEREVAN 26

YEREVAN 00000201 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: AMB. Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Without revealing specifics, National
Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian seemed to signal dramatic
new moves on releasing March 1 (and election-related)
detainees in the upcoming weeks, now that the parliament has
enacted the criminal code revisions negotiated with PACE. He
indicated that the criminal code revisions would mean that
charges would be dropped against most or all of the "Trial of
Seven" defendants and others, with still more to be freed by
pardons. It was unclear if this would mean that eventually
all the detainees would be freed or simply a large
percentage.


2. (C) Abrahamian reprised his reftel points on the
importance of MCC continuing. The Ambassador highlighted
that Armenia must fulfill its Ruling Justly commitments, and
confided that the mood in Washington was not at all
permissive on Armenia's continuing democratic failings.
Ambassador said that the May 31 Yerevan election would be a
big benchmark. Abrahamian again highlighted President
Sargsian's commitment on Turkey and NK, working torward
regional peace and stability, while complaining that Armenia
got no financial help for the economic losses of the
Georgia-Russia conflict, while Georgia got a rich U.S.
payout. Abrahamian echoed earlier GOAM complaints about two
items of wording in the human rights report.

END SUMMARY


3. (C) PROGRESS ON POLITICAL DETAINEES?: National Assembly
Speaker Hovik Abrahamian led off the March 20 conversation
with Ambassador by extolling the fact that the National
Assembly had earlier that week enacted revisions of Armenia's
criminal code articles 225 and 300, in accordance with his
negotiations with PACE co-rapportuers John Prescott and
Georges Colombier. He said that President Sargsian should
sign the revisions within a day or two, and this would put

them into effect within the next two weeks. He said that
these changes would lead to prosecutors dropping all article
225 and 300 charges against the "Trial of Seven" defendants.
(NOTE: Two of the seven -- MPs Myasnik Malkhasian and Sasun
Mikhailian -- have one other charge each against them in
addition to articles 225 and 300. Malkhasian has a resisting
arrest charge and Mikaelian a weapons possession charge.
There is one other high-profile defendant, Gagik Jhangirian,
who is not part of the "Trial of Seven" and who is charged
only with resisting arrest. END NOTE)


4. (C) KINDLY PRESIDENT TO PARDON THE REST?: He said this
would also have a "positive impact" on the roughly 60 other
cases of March 1 and related defendents in jail or prison,
saying that he personally was working hard to ensure that "no
one would be in prison for his political views." He
mentioned that some who were guilty of real, non-political
crimes, such as weapons violations, must be punished
appropriately by the courts. Abrahamian went on to note that
the president is disposed to be very forward-leaning on
issuing pardons or amnesties for many of these detainees,
once the relevant trials are completed. He joked that
President Sarsian's staff sometimes worried that the
president is "too kind and soft" on these issues. Abrahamian
said "the sooner the trials are complete, the sooner the
political situation willl stabilize." Ambassador agreed,
with the caveat that trials must be seen as fair by the
Armenian people, and the law applied equally to everyone, to
which Abrahamian agreed. The timeframe of all this was
unclear, but it seemed that all of this would play out before
the June MCC Board meeting.


5. (C) WANT TO GET IT DONE: Ambassador replied that it would
be a very positive signal if Armenia manages to free all of
these March 1 detainees in the near term, and not just the
"Trial of Seven" but the rest of the roughly 60 as well.
Abrahamian replied that Armenian leaders understand it is in
their political interest, domestically and internationally,
to resolve this issue. He said he and other officials
realize that having the likes of Gagik Jhangirian (former
deputy prosecutor general),Alexander Arzumanian (former
foreign minister),and Myasnik Malkhasian (member of
parliament),in prison is a cause of political discontent and
one they would like to resolve. The president was unwilling
to interfere with the judicial process while it was underway,
but as soon as those processes are complete will be eager to
"turn the page on March 1-2 in a way that everyone will be
happy about." Ambassador welcomed this approach.


YEREVAN 00000201 002.2 OF 004



6. (C) TURKEY AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH: In agreeing with
Abrahamian's praise of President Sargsian's "human approach"
to the prospect of pardoning prisoners for their "mistakes,"
Ambassador noted that President Sargsian indeed seems to have
an open mind to different points of view, whether on
political prisoners, or Turkey relations or resolving the
problem of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Abrahamian replied that
the National Assembly fully supports the president's
approaches to negotiations with Turkey and Azerbaijan on
these issues. Abrahamian said that Sargsian genuinely wants
to achieve regional peace and stability through these
negotiations. Others had questioned or criticized inviting
Turkish President Gul to Yerevan last September, but
Abrahamian supported this. Abrahamian said that normalizing
relations with Turkey would make it easier to come to a
resolution on Nagorno-Karabakh. Abrahamian noted that NK
leaders in Stepankert often complain that they are excluded
from the Minsk Group process, and that he himself had
recieved such complaints on a recent visit to NK. Abrahamian
then reiterated the importance of the Minsk Group, and said
that achieving regional peace and stability would pay major
economic dividends -- which is more important than ever in
the context of the current worldwide economic crisis.


7. (C) NK LANGUAGE IN THE HRR: Abrahamian went on to
complain about the language on NK in the 2008 State
Department human rights report. He said that it angers
Armenians that the report called NK a part of Azerbaijan.
Ambassador responded that our policy is to help the two sides
seek a balanced, negotiated resolution of the NK dispute
based on the three principles of self-determination,
territorial integrity, and non-use of force.


8. (C) DOUBLE STANDARDS? FINANCIAL COMPENSATIONS?:
Abrahamian commented bitingly on Azerbaijan's recent
referendum to eliminate term limits on President Ilham
Aliyev. He said that if Armenia had passed such a referendum
it would have been excoriated by the international community.
He said that Armenia comes in for much tougher criticism
than neighbors Azerbaijan and Georgia because it lacks either
oil and gas or a strategic sea access (apparently meaning
importance for oil/gas transit or military overflights),but
that these double-standards are unfair. He complained that
Armenia suffered $600 million in economic losses from the
Russia-Georgia conflict and got no help from the West, while
the United States had poured a billion dollars into Georgia.
Ambassador replied that Russia had caused the crisis by
invading Georgia, so it was only appropriate that Russia make
Armenia whole for its losses, as it has done by announcing a
$500 million credit to Armenia. The U.S. realized that
Georgia would obviously not be compensated by Russia, and
stepped into that breach. Abrahamian rejoindered that the
Russian credit had nothing at all to do with the
Russia-Georgia conflict, but with the economic crisis and
joint projects the two countries would conduct in Armenia.


9. (C) HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT CRITICIZED; TIP ON TRACK: Aside
from criticizing the NK language in the HRR, Abrahamian also
echoed complaints we heard earlier from FM Nalbandian on the
statement in the HRR that "Prostitution and sex tourism are
legal in Armenia." Ambassador pointed out that FM Nalbandian
had raised this point, and she had researched it and
discovered that the GOAM is partially correct. While the
statement is technically accurate as written -- prostitution
and sex tourism are not criminal offenses -- it is perhaps
not ideally phrased. Sex tourism is not an existing
phenomenon in Armenia, and prostitution is a civil offense
and subject to administrative fines. Ambassador undertook to
modify the way this is phrased in next year's report.
Ambassador also mentioned our satisfaction with recent
Armenian progress on Trafficking in Persons, and that we
hoped -- if current trends continue -- that Armenia might
graduate from the TIP Tier Two Watch List this year.
Abrahamian claimed credit for having launched the ministerial
anti-TIP council in 2007. (COMMENT: This is disingenuous at
best. We are unaware of any ministerial council ever meeting
while Abrahamian was deputy prime minister, and certainly no
such council accomplished anything on Abrahamian's watch.
Abrahamian's successor as deputy prime minister has made the
ministerial council into an active functioning body. END
COMMENT)


10. (C) YEREVAN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: Ambassador noted that
the upcoming May 31 Yerevan election would be a major
political and democratic benchmark for Armenia, representing
nearly half of Armenia's population. The Speaker replied
that the election would be completely free and fair; the
opposition would have full and equal access to television and
other media. He said that he himself was engaged in ensuring
the elections would be clean, and that the parliament's local

YEREVAN 00000201 003.2 OF 004


government committee would act as election observers. It
would be unacceptable to allow the upcoming election to be "a
blemish on the country."


11. (C) OPPOSITION'S SUSPECT INTENTIONS?: Abrahamian
predicted that no one party would have a majority, several
parties winning seats in the council would have to form a
coalition and select a mayor. He predicted that all four
parties in the government coalition would each win seats in
the city council, as would the Armenian National Congress and
Heritage Party. He said it was odd that former President
Ter-Petrossian had chosen to run for mayor. The job requires
good management skills and familiarity with municipal
governance challenges. Abrahamian commented that the only
chance for any problems with the upcoming election would come
from opposition provocations or determination to disrupt the
election proceedings. He said "If Ter-Petrossian has honest
intentions, I welcome him in the race."


12. (C) BAD INDICATORS ALREADY: Responding to the
Ambassador's earlier expressions of concern about the
indirect nature of the election, Abrahamian insisted that
Armenian had "nothing in writing" from any European
organization (Council of Europe, PACE, OSCE, etc) criticizing
the model that Armenia had adopted. Ambassador commented
that the "bonus" provision in the municipality law distorts
voters' representation. She said that "if I were a voter
voting for the party that surpasses a 40 percent plurality
and wins the bonus of 10 percent more seats in the council,
and you vote for a party that does not get this benefit, it
means that my vote has been worth more than yours." This was
in violation of the vote's principle of proportionality. She
went on to note that appointing Gagik Beglarian to the
mayorship immediately after he was selected as the ruling
party candidate created the bad appearance that "the fix is
in" on the upcoming race, and noted that elections in the
recent past -- including Gagik Beglarian's August 2008
election to head the central Yerevan "Kentron" district --
had featured abuse of administrative resources and
intimidation tactics. Ambassador said we would be watching
for similar abuses in connection with the May 31 election.
Abrahamian did not respond specifically to any of these
points, as the conversation turned instead to MCC.


13. (C) MILLENNIUM CHALLENGES: Ambassador reported that the
MCC Board had decided at its March session to continue the
operational hold on the $60 million roads component of
Armenia's MCC Compact. Abrahamian reprised almost verbatim
his reftel comments that the MCC program benefits the rural
poor, and Armenians would view the United States very
negatively if the program were cut. He said this is
particularly true in the current tough economic times, noting
the expression that "you don't kick a man when he's down."


14. (C) TIME GROWS SHORT TO AVOID PENALTY: The Ambassador
reiterated that the GOAM knew full well MCC was a conditional
program, and a reward for countries with good performance and
sound policies, and Armenia is lagging. She confided that
some Board member had been ready to terminate the roads
component already in March, and in fact some had suggested
that the entire Armenian Compact be terminated, having
already been given nine months to correct its Ruling Justly
failings and having failed to do so. The June Board might
take "irreversible actions" unless Armenia improves rapidly.

15 (C) THE CRITICAL TO-DO LIST: The Ambassador highlighted
that everyone wants the MCC program to be able to continue
and to be successful -- none more than she -- but that this
would be difficult absent serious progress by the GOAM which
will be persuasive to the Board. She said that release of the
March 1 detainees would be a very positive step. We also
need to see progress on media freedom and freedom of
assembly, with the latter meaning both public rallies and an
end to NSS actions to pressure hotels not to give meeting
space to parties and NGOs. Abrahamian asked if the
Ambassador could give a specific example. She replied that
OSI's conference on human rights which she had addressed May
19 had been scheduled for the Marriott, but that the Marriott
had cancelled the booking under pressure, requiring OSI to
find another venue. Abrahamian promised to raise this point
with the president.


16. (C) A PRO-FREEDOM GUY: Abrahamian said his position all
along in government policy debates has been that full freedom
of assembly must be allowed and political parties should be
able to rally as they please. He commented that authorities
had never refused the opposition permission to rally
outright, only that the opposition had insisted on rallying
in the central Freedom Square or Matenaderan, while the
government had counter-proposed a site away from the center.

YEREVAN 00000201 004.2 OF 004


But in any case his view was that the more the public gets to
see and hear the oppposition speak, the less enamored they
will be at Ter-Petrossian's lack of any real program or
content. Ambassador agreed that the best strategy for the
government would be to allow robust exposure for the
opposition.


17. (C) COMMENT: Throughout most of the meeting, Abrahamian
seemed relaxed, upbeat, and comfortable with himself and the
situation. He grew pensive over Ambassador's pointed
messages on MCC and the municipal electon, but overall
projected every appearance of optimistic confidence that
Armenia will get back on track in short order. He was
strongly foreshadowing dramatic steps forward on the
political detainees front -- though as yet we are unable to
assess whether this will be as sweeping as we demand or
simply something that seems bold by the lights of a
post-Soviet mindset. Still, Abrahamian's strongly
forward-leaning position suggests that we will see some kind
of significant developments in the upcoming weeks, and we
find this encouraging.


18. (C) COMMENT (CONTINUED): Other recent conversations
with knowledgeable political insiders suggest that
Abrahamian's star is rising. We are told that elites
increasingly are turning to Abrahamian as the "go-to guy" to
solve their problems for them, as the prime minister has
seemed either unwilling or incapable of settling these issues
to the satisfaction of oligarchs, party stalwarts, and
various insider interests. His reputation as a
behind-the-scenes problem-solver -- and the chits he is
increasingly collecting from various elites and powerbrokers
-- seem to be creating a growing power base of his own,
separate from both the president and Abrahamian's erstwhile
patron former President Kocharian. Bets are being placed that
Abrahamian could become the nest Prime Minister -- and the
next President.
PENNINGTON