Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09YEREVAN103
2009-02-17 16:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yerevan
Cable title:  

DEFENSE MINISTER REVIEWS CSTO, RUSSIA, REGIONAL

Tags:  PREL MARR MOPS NATO CIS RU TU AJ AF AM 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000103 

SIPDIS

/// C O R R E C T E D C O P Y ///
/// REVISED CLASSIFICATION FOR PARAGRAPH 2 AND FIXED SIGNATURE LINE///

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO CIS RU TU AJ AF AM
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER REVIEWS CSTO, RUSSIA, REGIONAL
SECURITY, AND POSSIBLE AFGHANISTAN DEPLOYMENT

REF: YEREVAN USDAO IIR 6942 0021 09 (DTG 120620Z FEB
09)

YEREVAN 00000103 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000103

SIPDIS

/// C O R R E C T E D C O P Y ///
/// REVISED CLASSIFICATION FOR PARAGRAPH 2 AND FIXED SIGNATURE LINE///

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO CIS RU TU AJ AF AM
SUBJECT: DEFENSE MINISTER REVIEWS CSTO, RUSSIA, REGIONAL
SECURITY, AND POSSIBLE AFGHANISTAN DEPLOYMENT

REF: YEREVAN USDAO IIR 6942 0021 09 (DTG 120620Z FEB
09)

YEREVAN 00000103 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian reviewed
Armenia's regional security perspectives with Ambassador
February 10. He commented that the recently-announced CSTO
reaction force remains only "on paper." He linked Russia's
military presence in Armenia to the potential threat posed by
Turkish and Azerbaijani troops, while also acknowledging the
NATO/IPAP problem created by Armenia's mention of this issue
in its National Military Doctrine document. He expressed
confidence in Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) forces'
combined ability to fend off any Azerbaijani attack. Ohanian
said President Sargsian is committed to achieving an NK
solution during his tenure in office. He expressed support
for the idea of Armenian troops deploying with Kansas
National Guard troops in support of Operation Enduring
Freedom. END SUMMARY

DEVELOPING DEFENSE TIES -- AFGHANISTAN AN OPTION
-------------- ---


2. (C) Ambassador and Defense Attache hosted Defense
Minister Seyran Ohanian and MG Haik Kotanjian (Commandant of
the MOD's Institute of National Strategic Studies and an
adviser to the minister) to lunch February 10, in an outreach
effort to deepen political-military ties with the Defense
Ministry. Ohanian praised President Serzh Sargsian for his
work as defense minister to drive Armenian defense reform and
advance NATO/IPAP progress. Ohanian said that the Armenian
government is still supportive of potential plans for
Armenian forces to participate in Afghanistan mission with
the Kansas National Guard's (KSNG) upcoming OEF deployment,
though he did not go into details. Ohanian also mentioned

MOD discussions with Germany over a possible ISAF deployment
(reftel). The Ambassador noted that she had also spoken with
Foreign Minister Nalbandian about different Afghanistan
scenarios, whether with the KSNG or German troops. (COMMENT:
Armenia presumably will choose to join either Germany or the
U.S., not both, as a means of contributing in Afghanistan,
but after several previous failures to find a good partner
for its Afghanistan deployment, continues to explore a range
of options in search of a good fit. END COMMENT)

CSTO STILL NOTIONAL
--------------


3. (C) When asked about Armenia,s role in the newly-created
Joint Rapid Reaction Force (JRRF) of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO),the Minister said that Armenia is
still studying its objectives for participation in the JRRF,
but has not yet designated any operational units to be a part
of it. Minister Ohanian is the current Secretary of the CSTO
council. He noted that CSTO has been working on this project
for some time, but said in reality the JRRF is a long-term
project and remains mostly "on paper." There are still many
questions that have to be resolved, based on the interests of
each member country. General Kotanjian, commented that CSTO
JRRF is based upon the NATO Response Force (NRF) model and
will have similar missions, such as counter-terrorism and
natural disaster response.

RUSSIA'S ROLE IN ARMENIA'S DOMESTIC DEFENSE CALCULATONS
-------------- --------------


4. (C) The Ambassador mentioned her interest in visiting the
Russian 102nd Military Base, headquartered in Gyumri. In
reply, the Minister said that the primary reason for the
Russian 102nd Base dated from Soviet times and was intended
to defend against the Turkish Third Field Army, which he
contends is still considered a significant security threat to
Armenia. The Russian military presence in Armenia is a major
component of Armenian security. He said the majority of
forces of the Turkish Third Army are within a "120 kilometer
Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty exclusion zone"
and are not subject to CFE inspections. He said these forces
and the Turkish support to Azerbaijani military forces
stationed in Nakhichevan pose the greatest security threat to
Armenia because they could easily cut Armenia into two.

TURKEY AND NATO
--------------


5. (C) Ohanian recalled the political difficulty created in
Armenia's NATO/IPAP process over the fact that Armenia had
made explicit reference to the Turkish-Azerbaijani military
alliance as a potential threat to Armenia's national security

YEREVAN 00000103 002.2 OF 003


in its National Military Doctrine. He mentioned that these
documents are still being worked on, and was hopeful the
Armenians could reach an "appropriate" solution.Ohanian said
he could not overlook any military threat to the country.
(Note: In the spring of 2008, Turkey broke silence
concerning the Armenian IPAP approval process over the
reference in the IPAP to Armenia,s Military Doctrine and its
discussion of Turkey as a threat. End Note).


6. (C) The Minister said that President Sargsian is committed
to achieving peaceful reconciliation with Turkey during his
term of office. Ohanian was hopeful that the "football
diplomacy" between the two presidents will lead to further
worthwhile negotiations that would lead to a settlement
between the two counties and an eventual opening of the
Turkish-Armenian border.

CONFIDENT OF NK SECURITY, DESIRE FOR PEACE
--------------


7. (C) The Minister commented that he is not unduly
concerned about the numerical superiority of the Azerbaijani
Armed Forces or their recent attempts to improve the quality
of their forces. He said he remains confident that NK can be
defended from any potential Azerbaijani military action, and
that he does not lie awake at nights worrying about NK or an
Azerbaijani military attack. He said "their" army is strong,
but "our army is ready." Ohanian said that NK Armenians were
proud, fierce fighters, but nonetheless -- having seen war --
now prefer a peaceful resolution to the conflict with
Azerbaijan over the disputed territories. He expressed
confidence that Azerbaijani sentiments are the same, as both
sides had tasted the bitter fruits of war.


8. (C) The Minister stated that the people of NK fully
support President Sargsian's policy of peaceful settlement as
the only means of reaching a solution. He said President
Sargsian wanted to achieve a settlement during his term.
Ohanian stated that NK had never really been a part of an
independent Azerbaijan and that the Referendum of 1988 was
the real voice of the NK people. A further referendum would
really only be duplicative. (Note: The 1988 referendum was
for NK to secede from the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist
Republic and unify with Armenia. End Note) The Ambassador
noted that resolution to the NK conflict would redefine the
regional security environment and economic prospects for the
better across the region. Ohanian agreed.

A LOST OPPORTUNITY
--------------


9. (C) Ohanian observed that Armenia had been scheduled to
host the June 2009 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
Defense Ministerial meeting, but Azerbaijan had objected that
the meeting should not be held in a country "in conflict," so
the location was moved from Yerevan to Moscow. Ohanian said
he was disappointed by this decision because he had planned
to host the Azerbaijani Defense Minister, Safar Abbiyev, and
had planned to include Azerbaijani folk dances and songs in
the cultural part of the program.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) The better we get to know Minister Ohanian, the more
we like him as a partner in political-military efforts. He
seems a straightforward interlocutor, who is respected in the
Armenian government and within the Defense Ministry. His
credibility as a soldier is very high, given his long
experience commanding NKSDF troops. We are pleased to find
General Ohanian interested and committed on Armenia's
NATO-related defense reform efforts and Euro-Atlantic ties.
Having spent his military career in NK -- a no-go area for
U.S. Embassy and DAO personnel -- Ohanian was a complete
unknown to us when Serzh Sargsian named him Chief of the
General Staff in 2007, and then promoted him to be Minister
of Defense in 2008. Ohanian is believed to be a friend and
loyal supporter of President Serzh Sargsian, trusted to run
the MOD as a good soldier, and to steer clear of politics.


11. (C) Ohanian is not a Soviet-trained general. He cut his
teeth as a bright and effective commander of NK troops during
Armenia's hot war (1991-94) and then uneasy ceasefire with
Azerbaijan. He was a young tank battalion commander at the
outbreak of that war, and not really the product of the
Soviet military education system. His experience was
practical, and did not leave him in the thrall of the
Soviet/Russian defense establishment, as was true of his
predecessor and most other Armenian generals. Ohanian,

YEREVAN 00000103 003.2 OF 003


Kotanjian, Defense Policy Director Col. David Tonoyan, and
other key reformist rising stars in the Defense Ministry,
leave us hopeful about the MOD's prospects over time to
transform itself and move closer to the Euro-Atlantic model
we hope to see Armenia embrace. This outcome can be
accelerated with increased funding resources for English
language and professional military education for Armenia's
rising generaton of junior and field-grade officers.
Armenia's general officer corps, unfortunately, remains
mostly in the mold of the corrupt, incompetent, and
Soviet-indoctrinated General Khachaturov, who now serves as
Chief of the General Staff. However, this aging cadre of bad
generals is few in number, and close to retirement. Coming
up behind them is a cohort of field-grade officers that
includes some bright, dynamic, young professionals who may be
expected to bring a very different approach and set of
values.

PENNINGTON