CAMEROON'S INCONVENIENT TRUTH: THE 2005 CENSUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000903

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2019
TAGS: CM ECON PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S INCONVENIENT TRUTH: THE 2005 CENSUS
REVEALS IMPORTANT CHANGES

REF: YAOUNDE 504

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott B. Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and
(e).


1. (C) Summary: A contact in the United Nations Population
Fund (UNFPA) office in Yaounde recently shared with us a
confidential summary document of the 2005 census conducted by
the UNFPA and the Government of Cameroon (GRC). The report
was never released, apparently because of its political
sensitivity. Only the third census done since independence,
the survey estimated a total population of 18 million in
2008, expected to rise to 21.2 million by 2015. Population
growth is depicted as relatively high, slowing in recent
years because of low fertility and high infant, juvenile and
maternal mortality. The census pointed to high growth in the
three northern regions, despite evident migration of men from
these and several other parts of the country. The study
found rapid urbanization, including a doubling in size of
Yaounde and Douala between 1987 and 2005.


2. (C) Summary continued: The census results have
important political implications, suggesting that the Grand
North and the major cities should be getting more resources
and attention. Revelations of major population shifts would
also have an impact on electoral districts, prompting
questions about the state of voter registers. Because of its
political sensitivities, we do not expect the government to
publish this census for some time, if they decide to do so at
all. The government claims to be factoring census results
into planning, although there is no way to confirm this.
Until the data is published, planning within the Cameroon
government is likely to be out of sync with reality, possibly
leading decision-makers into even greater difficulties with
disgruntled, under-served populations. End summary.

Background
--------------


3. (U) The UNFPA, the Cameroonian Census Bureau and the
former Ministry of Planning and Territorial Administration
conducted a national census on November 11-December 6, 2005,
Cameroon's third census since independence in 1960 (previous
censuses were in 1976 and 1987). The exercise employed over
17,000 census agents and covered 85% of the population, a
slightly less representative sample than in previous
censuses. The results are reportedly supported by
post-census data.


4. (C) The results of this census have never been
published. For the past four years, the international
community and Cameroonian observers have pressed the GRC to
publish the census, pointing out the difficulty of national
planning without accurate demographic data. The Ambassador
has raised the need to publish the census on numerous
occasions at senior levels of government. Minister of
Economy, Planning, and Rural Development Louis Paul Motaze
told Ambassador that the census was awaiting approval from
the presidency, which he thought was concerned that some
information in the census had been manipulated by "elites."
He assured Ambassador that census results were being factored
into GRC long-term planning (reftel).

The Big Picture: Growth in the North and the Cities
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) According to provisional census results,
Cameroon's total population more than doubled in the past 30
years, from 7.6 million in 1976 to 10.5 million in 1987 and
17,123,688 in 2005. The census projects a total population
of 18 million by January 2008 and 21.2 million by 2015 - an
increase of about 20 percent over ten years.


6. (SBU) The most populous of Cameroon's ten regions (with
over 2 million inhabitants) were the Extreme North (3.1
million people),Center (2.9 million, 56% of whom were in
Yaounde) and Littoral (2.3 million, 74% of whom were in
Douala),followed by the West (1.8 million),North West (1.7
million),North (1.6 million) and South West (1.3 million).
The least populated regions were Adamaoua (about 887,000),
the East (797,000) and the South (555,000). Overall
population density was 36.7 inhabitants per square kilometer
(up from 22.5 in 1987),with the most densely populated
regions (in descending order) being the West, Littoral, North
West and Extreme North regions.


7. (SBU) In descending order, Mfoundi Department (greater
Yaounde),Wouri Department (greater Douala),and the
Adamaoua, North and Extreme North regions had the highest

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population growth from 1987-2005, while the Littoral (minus
Douala),North West, Center (without Yaounde),and West had
an average annual growth below 2%. According to the census
summary, this reflects migration from the North West and West
because of high population density and pressure on arable
land, as well as pressure within the Littoral and Center to
migrate to Douala and Yaounde. According to the census
summary, these growth patterns lead to projections that in
2008, the most populous regions would be the Extreme North
(18.2% of the total),West (10.3%),North (10.1%) and Douala
(10.1%).

A Story of Migration and Poverty
--------------


8. (SBU) While 50.6% of the total population is comprised
of women and 49.4% of men, half of the regions (Adamaoua,
North, and especially the Extreme North, Northwest and West)
have significantly more women than men. According to the
census summary, this largely reflects internal migration
toward Yaounde, Douala and the agro-industrial areas of the
South West region.


9. (SBU) The census found a rapid increase in urbanization,
from 28% of the total population living in cities in 1976 to
37.9% in 1987 and 46.4% in 2005. The total number of
inhabitants living in urban areas and the total number of
cities with over 50,000 inhabitants doubled from 1987 to

2005. During this period, the population of Mfoundi
Department (greater Yaounde) more than doubled to 1.64
million and the population of Wouri Department (greater
Douala) more than doubled to 1.7 million. The next most
populous cities, in descending order, were: Bafoussam,
Garoua, Maroua, Bamenda, Ngaoundere, and Kumba.


10. (SBU) The census reported 2.7% average annual
population growth between the last two censuses, with slower
than average growth (2.5%) in the period 2002-2005. The
average annual growth between the 1976 and 1987 censuses was
slightly higher, at 2.8%. The 2005 census cites 1991-2004
government demographic data to argue that the slower
population growth is explained in part by a drop in the
fertility rate (from 5.8% in 1991 to 5% in 2004),a rise in
infant mortality (65% to 74% during this period),and
substantial increases in juvenile and maternal mortality -
all reportedly linked to economic difficulties and rising
unemployment.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) President Paul Biya and the ruling Cameroon Peoples
Democratic Movement (CPDM) party are increasingly in campaign
mode for the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (to be
followed by parliamentary polls in 2012). Biya has called
for jump-starting the economy to help avoid a repeat of
nationwide riots in 2008 brought on by a combination of high
prices, poverty and political discontent. The election and
the presidential succession process will be a delicate
balance, with interests in Biya's center and southern
heartland competing against northerners eager to regain power
(former President Ahmadou Ahidjo was from the North),
frustrated westerners (predominantly the wealthy but widely
resented ethnic Bamilekes) and the anglophone areas of the
North West and South West, whose residents often feel
marginalized.


12. (C) Most Cameroonian observers have surmised that
President Biya was withholding the census for political
reasons. The UNFPA summary reinforces this view. Biya is
focused on politics, not economics. He may feel that
releasing a census showing higher growth in the northern
regions could weaken his political hand, undermine his
ability to manipulate election results (the census is crucial
for election planning),and lead to calls for redistributing
wealth and power. The declining social indicators, rapid
urbanization and gender disparities in some areas reinforce
other evidence that rural poverty has been on the rise - also
an uncomfortable truth in a more politically sensitive
period.


13. (C) We can't evaluate the quality of the census and
don't have a complete data set. The UNFPA contact who gave
us the summary later called in a panic to say he wasn't
supposed to give it to us because the government hadn't
approved it and he urged us not to reveal that we had it.
Given the political sensitivities of the report and the
government's recalcitrance over the past four years, we don't
expect to see the census published any time soon; the

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presidency may try to doctor the final version or release it
late enough to mute its political implications (such as
possible changes to the voter register and/or redistricting
for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections).
The government may be using some of the census data in its
economic and social sector planning. Until the data is
published, however, most planning in Cameroon will likely be
based on 22-year-old data that doesn't reflect the country's
rapid urbanization and growing poverty, and the rising
demographic importance of the north.
PETERSON