Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09YAOUNDE867
2009-10-14 15:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Yaounde
Cable title:  

CAMEROON'S DISORGANIZED OPPOSITION SDF

Tags:  CM PGOV PHUM 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000867 
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (MODIFIED TEXT IN PARA 7)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019
TAGS: CM PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S DISORGANIZED OPPOSITION SDF

REF: A. YAOUNDE 724

B. YAOUNDE 792

Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (b) and (c)

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000867
C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (MODIFIED TEXT IN PARA 7)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019
TAGS: CM PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S DISORGANIZED OPPOSITION SDF

REF: A. YAOUNDE 724

B. YAOUNDE 792

Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (b) and (c)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Uncertainty over prospective presidential candidates,
problems with internal party discipline, and a divisive
corruption issue threaten the status of the Social Democratic
Front (SDF) as Cameroon's largest opposition group. Adding
to Cameroon's political uncertainty are promises of
demonstrations by both the SDF and other opposition
activists. While elections in 2011 remain distant, political
pressure continues to build, especially as some fear
President Biya may advance the election date. End summary.

No Presumptive SDF Presidential Candidate
--------------


2. (C) Kah Walla, SDF leader and member of the Douala City
Council, recently told poloff discussions were underway in
the SDF to put forward a consensus party presidential
candidate. She hinted the SDF would not nominate John Fru
Ndi, the longtime SDF leader and former presidential
candidate, but she would not specify an alternative. She
said many in the SDF were looking for new, younger
leadership. Neither Walla nor prominent Douala-based SDF
parliamentarian Jean Michel Nintcheu would deny they were
interested in running for president when asked separately by
poloff. In a another meeting with poloff, SDF Secretary
General Elizabeth Tamajong, who is considered close to Fru
Ndi, would not speculate on the SDF candidate, insisting that
a party convention would choose.

Discipline Problem an SDF Nuisance
--------------


3. (SBU) While the SDF contemplates its presidential
candidate, an internal discipline problem continues to dog
the party. On May 20, SDF leadership announced a general
boycott of the Cameroonian National Day celebrations, citing
the deplorable state of the nation. Serge Simeon Noumba, the
only SDF parliamentarian from the West Region, broke with the
leadership and participated in a parade in his home region.
Since then, the SDF has been agonizing over how to respond to
his indiscipline, especially because expelling Noumba would
deprive them of their "group" status in the parliament.
(Note: The SDF needs to retain 16 out of a total of 180

seats in parliament to be considered a "group." It currently
has just 16 seats, while the next largest opposition
representation in parliament holds only one seat. A
parliamentary group allows the party to have a seat on the
steering committee, which governs parliament and conducts
business on behalf of parliament when parliament is out of
session. The group chair and vice-chair are also entitled to
official government residences. End note.) The SDF recently
announced that a decision on the matter would be postponed
until November.

Declaration of Assets Controversy Adds to SDF Woes
-------------- --------------


4. (C) The SDF leadership has been further tested by Article
66 of the constitution, which requires government employees
to declare their personal assets. Intended to fight
corruption and increase transparency in government, the
article is widely ignored, unenforced and unimplemented, most
famously by President Paul Biya himself. Fru Ndi announced
several months ago that he would declare his assets but
recently said he would not follow through, rightly pointing
out he is under no legal requirement to do so, as he is not a
government employee. Nonetheless, media reports on Fru Ndi's
stance have been critical, wondering why he would not take
the high road and draw the distinction between himself and
President Biya in more stark terms, especially since he had
promised to disclose his assets. Nintcheu, one of the few
government officials to have declared his assets, told poloff
many in the party were upset with Fru Ndi's decision.

SDF Hints at Unrest
--------------


5. (C) Nintcheu told poloff he would personally lead
peaceful anti-government protests, as he did in February,

2008. He planned to demand specifically the reconstitution
of ELECAM, Cameroon's controversial electoral commission, and
reform of the electoral code. Kah Walla also separately
promised protests with similar demands. Both believed

YAOUNDE 00000867 002 OF 002


President Biya would never make significant changes to the
electoral machinery without protests. They also thought it
highly probable Biya would change the election date (ref A)
to prevent the opposition from organizing. Nintcheu said
Cameroonian youth were at the point of revolt. In a recent
meeting with Ambassador, Fru Ndi said the average Cameroonian
had fallen below "floor" level (i.e. public opinion has hit
rock bottom) and none of the problems sparking the 2008
violence had been solved.

Other Opposition Voices Echo Political Uncertainty
-------------- --------------


6. (C) SDF concerns are consistent with vibes from other
opposition activists. One independent journalist recently
told poloff he believed political and economic conditions
were worse than in 2008. Bernard Njonga, civil society
activist and director of the Citizen Association for the
Defense of Collective Interests, promised he would lead
protests at the end of August in Douala, although the
protests turned into muted "cultural gatherings" dubbed as a
national tour throughout the month of September. Hilaire
Kamga, Director of the prominent human rights NGO "The New
Rights of Man," recently told Pol/Econ Chief he plans to roll
out a major civil society platform for change in October. In
a recent meeting with Ambassador, Progressive Movement party
parliamentarian Jean Jacques Ekindi said ELECAM does not yet
have a full budget and has not received any equipment or
resources from the old election commission. He also noted
that Cameroon's election law does not even conform to the
2008 constitutional revision. On whether President Biya
would advance the election date, Ekindi believed ELECAM's
lack of preparedness would act as a deterrent.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Despite the failure of major protests to materialize
so far in 2009, the threat of political unrest could build as
the election draws nearer. On the other hand, vague
statements about protests and youth revolts create a sense
that the SDF would prefer to fall back on hackneyed rhetoric
than attempt a strategic approach to political change. By
raising the possibility of a new "consensus candidate," the
SDF demonstrates that it can think outside its box. However,
it is not clear they have done any outreach to other parties,
or disgruntled elements within the CPDM, to organize a viable
candidate. Our sense is that at this point other party
leaders would not rally behind an SDF candidate. We are also
dubious that current discussions about the need for a newer,
younger candidate will survive what will surely be a full
court press by John Fru Ndi to ensure that he continues to
carry the standard of the SDF. These elements combined lead
us to believe that, whether or not Biya advances the election
date, the opposition is likely to be unprepared. We will
continue to advocate for improved election machinery (ref B)
and a healthy political competition. End Comment.
PETERSON