CAMEROON: SDF CHAIRMAN THREATENS TO DISRUPT 2011

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 000225

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C AND DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019
TAGS: CM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: SDF CHAIRMAN THREATENS TO DISRUPT 2011
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)


1. (C) Summary: On March 3, Chairman of the leading
opposition party, the Social Democratic Front (SDF),John Fru
Ndi met with Ambassador as part of a broad outreach to
resident Chiefs of Mission about the current political
situation. He and several SDF colleagues bemoaned the lack
of democracy in Cameroon and said they are convinced
President Biya will run again in 2011. If he wins, the SDF
fears a violent backlash that they will not be able to
control. End summary.

2. (C) Fru Ndi thanked Ambassador for the USG's critical
position toward the recently created Elections Cameroon
(ELECAM). Accompanied by other senior SDF officials, he
praised the Embassy for talking to all elements of
Cameroonian society and affirmed that foreigners cannot want
change in Cameroon more than Cameroonians themselves do.


3. (C) Fru Ndi decried the current state of democracy.
Parliamentarians have little voice and ruling CPDM party
Members of Parliament feel bound by party discipline, he
said. He expounded on previous government attempts to rig
elections, stating that in 1992 (when many international and
domestic observers thought Fru Ndi won presidential
elections) he had to calm anger within his party "to avoid
war". He pointed to low voter turnout, reflecting high
levels of cynicism about elections, and the co-optation or
corruption of civil society. Fru Ndi said President Biya has
been unwilling to meet with him and is increasingly out of
touch.


4. (C) There is no doubt that Biya is preparing to run
again in 2011, according to SDF Vice President Josh Osih, who
pointed to recent decisions to amend the constitution and
pack ELECAM with senior party insiders. He thought Biya
would be fine with low voter turnout in 2011 and that his
biggest fear is being tried for crimes against humanity if he
leaves office. Osih said that if Biya wins again the SDF
would not be able to control a public which has lost hope of
peaceful transition. There is already significant pressure
for violent protest, he said. Fru Ndi inserted that "anarchy
is possible" if Biya wins the next election.


5. (C) Osih clarified that the SDF is not planning to
boycott the 2011 election but he stated that it was currently
"impossible" to hold free and fair elections and if the
current situation remains, the party "will do everything to
ensure elections don't take place." While Fru Ndi focused on
the need for a credible voter registration process, Osih saw
as higher priorities passing of a new electoral law,
releasing the long-awaited census, and creating a more
balanced ELECAM membership.


6. (C) Comment: This was Fru Ndi's first visit to the
Embassy in over a year and other diplomatic counterparts
confirmed he has been meeting with a wide cross-section of
Ambassadors over the past week. He appears to want to boost
his standing in the international community, noting that the
SDF has greater parliamentary representation than other
opposition parties and expressing interest in Washington
meetings at some point down the road. Fru Ndi is seen as a
fading force even within his own party. This was reinforced
to us in this meeting by his heavy focus on past grievances
and his inability to articulate the SDF approach to 2011. He
did not ask us for anything in particular. Osih talked about
a new generation of more frustrated politicians (he is one)
and spoke more openly than in past meetings about potential
future violence and about the risks he and opposition
colleagues are willing to contemplate as their hopes for the
future fade. It is hard to assess how much of the SDF talk
of violence is real and how much is bluster; most leaders of
other opposition parties are unlikely to join in civic action
organized by a Fru Ndi-led SDF. However, as demonstrated in
the February 2008 riots, high frustration levels in Cameroon
bear close watching.
GARVEY