Cameroon's Challenged Energy Sector

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 001068

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

COMMERCE FOR ITA- K BURRESS

TREASURY FOR PETERS AND BOYE

E.O. 12958:
TAGS: ENRG EINV ECON ETRD KCOR CM EPET
SUBJECT: Cameroon's Challenged Energy Sector

Ref A: Yaounde 514
Ref B: Yaounde 590


1. (SBU) Summary: Cameroon continues to plan for large power
production projects. In the hydropower sector, agreements have been
signed for financing the Lom Pangar dam project and the Chinese have
stepped in to build Memve'ele dam. American-led power company
AES-Sonel signed a deal to provide additional power to the ALUCAM
aluminum plant, although it depends on resolving an outstanding
disagreement over the financing for a planned gas-fired plant at
Kribi. Against a backdrop of declining oil production, the GRC is
searching (so far without much success) for natural gas and the
Chinese have begun oil exploration in the Extreme North. Cameroon
would like to negotiate an increase in the Chad-Cameroon pipeline
transit fee. Despite the announcements and plans, significant new
power and hydrocarbon production is unlikely in 2010. We expect to
see continued power supply shortages in the coming year. End
Summary.

Hydropower Gets New Energy
--------------


2. (SBU) Despite Cameroon's status as the second best source of
hydropower in Africa, it only exploits 530 of an estimated 8,000
megawatts of hydropower. In an attempt to improve this statistic,
the long-awaited Lom Pangar Dam project (ref A) received pledges in
November from donors and international financial institutions to the
tune of $360 million. Initially, the dam was to come online in 2012
but an inability to arrange financing delayed the project. Minister
of Energy and Water Michael Tomdio recently told Ambassador the
reservoir should be filled by 2014, but outside observers believe
2016 is more likely. The project aims to improve Cameroon's power
generation by normalizing the flow of water to other hydroelectric
projects downstream. The American-led power company, AES Sonel,
would benefit greatly from Lom Pangar as it perennially battles
brownouts resulting from fluctuations in rainfall.


3. (SBU) Among many potential snags in Lom Pangar, including
environmental and social reviews, is that the reservoir would
submerge 22 kilometers of the Chad-Cameroon oil pipeline. (Note:
The pipeline consortium is led by ExxonMobil and known as Tchad Oil
Transportation Company, or TOTCO, in Chad, and the Cameroon Oil
Transportation Company, or COTCO, in Cameroon. End Note.) COTCO
favors replacing the current pipe with special pipe designed to be
submerged under water, at a cost of around $50 million. According to
COTCO, the GRC approved its initial plans for the pipeline despite
the possibility, known at the time, that it would be submerged by the
impoundment. COTCO Managing Director Peter Mathys recently told
econoff the GRC will agree to pay for the modifications.


4. (SBU) In addition to Lom Pangar, the Cameroonian budget (septel)
includes line items for pre-financing some hydroelectric projects,
including about $2 million for the Memve'ele dam in the South Region.
Chinese company Sinohydro has taken over the $795 million Memve'ele
hydro project from British firm Globaleq. Globaleq had initially
wanted to construct the dam as a "BOOT" project (build, own, operate,
transfer) and transfer to Cameroon after 20 years. On July 24, the
U.S. Trade and Development Agency launched a $600,000 feasibility
study for a hydro plant in the Adamaoua Region. Despite these
agreements and activity, additional significant hydropower production
is years away.

Oil Production in Sharp Decline, Chinese Exploring
-------------- --------------


5. (U) Oil historically contributes approximately 20-30 percent to
the Cameroonian government budget and 5-10 percent to GDP. On
December 2, Cameroon's National Hydrocarbons Corporation (Societe
Nationale des Hydrocarbures, or SNH) purchased full page ads in most
major dailies predicting a significant drop for 2009 in overall
production and, more specifically, oil sold for state revenue. SNH
candidly revealed a production decrease of 13.77 percent and a 14.19
percent drop in the quantity of oil sold by the state. Such a
decrease is much larger than the production decreases of 1.7 percent
in 2008 and 2 percent in 2007, but not as bad as the 20 percent drop
in 2006. Since SNH began publishing its production statistics in
2004, total production peaked at 40 million barrels in 2005 and will
likely be no more than 27 million barrels in 2009.


6. (SBU) Twenty-five-year-old oil fields controlled by French
company Total E and P Cameroun account for most of the drop in
production. Total's fields generally make up over two thirds of
Cameroonian oil production. Total Director General Pierre Bang told
PolEcon Chief that production will remain at a level 10-15 percent
below 2008 totals for at least the next few years. It did not
decline earlier, he said, because of technological improvements
enabling better exploitation of existing sites. Bang opined that
most oil discoveries in Cameroonian territory were already made.
Pecten Cameroon LLC's General Manager Jorg Kohnert recently told
econoff that the company would be drilling a few new wells but didn't
expect any increases in production either. Pecten controls about one
fifth of Cameroonian oil production.


7. (SBU) SNH has announced new production sharing agreements,
including with Glencore/Afex, Addax, and EurOil, but none have led to
an appreciable increase in production yet. In April, SNH announced a
production sharing agreement with China's Yan Chang Logone
Development Holding Company Ltd., a subsidiary of Shaanxi Yan
Petroleum Group Corporation (SYCPGC). The Chinese exploration
company will acquire seismic data and drill one exploration well in
the Zina and Makary blocks of the Logone Birni basin, in the Extreme
North of Cameroon, near N'djamena, Chad. Total considered this
permit, according to Bang, but declined to pursue it because any oil
discovered is almost 600 kilometers away from the Chad-Cameroon oil
pipeline and would require massive infrastructure expenses to
transport; in addition, Chadian oil would always have precedence,
according to the pipeline agreement, which creates an additional risk
factor.

Natural Gas Production Not Taking Off
--------------


8. (SBU) Cameroon has over 135 billion cubic meters in proven
natural gas reserves. However, it has yet to produce any gas. Gas
de France recently announced plans to develop gas in Cameroon.
American company Noble Energy is exploring, but an American official
in Cameroon told econoff recently that any gas found will have a
difficult time getting to market since Cameroon doesn't have any
storage, means of transport, or customers. Total's DG Pierre Bang
added that recent speculation on the possibility of oil or gas in the
Bakassi peninsula, near the Nigerian border, was a "dream and largely
a myth." Spurred in part by recent U.S. Trade and Development Agency
feasibility studies, SNH and the Ministry of Energy have big plans
for storage and gas products pipeline infrastructure, but nothing has
started construction. Additionally, the first envisioned customer of
Cameroon's natural gas, an unbuilt electricity plant in Kribi, has
been mired in a dispute over the price the power company, AES-Sonel,
will charge to ALUCAM, Cameroon's aluminum smelter and largest
electricity customer.

The Oil Pipeline: Cameroon Wants More
--------------


9. (U) The Chad-Cameroon pipeline continues to provide an economic
benefit to Cameroon. When the pipeline was built, from 2000 to 2003,
the construction reportedly contributed 3- 5 percent additional GDP
growth per year, according to the World Bank. COTCO notes the
pipeline continues to provide significant economic benefit to the
Cameroonian government, such as around $20 million per year in
transit fees, $2-3 million in taxes per year, and around $3 million
per year in dividends. COTCO employs 1,067 Cameroonians and only 96
expatriates in country. Since its launch in July, 2003, the
Chad-Cameroon pipeline has pumped well over 300,000,000 barrels of
crude oil from the Doba basin area in Chad to the floating offshore
terminus near Kribi, Cameroon.


10. (SBU) While Cameroon reaps respectable economic benefits from
the pipeline, it would like to re-negotiate the transit fee paid by
COTCO for the right of way over its territory, in view of the
windfall Chad and Exxon Mobil have received on the project. COTCO
estimates that in the five years since the pipeline's launch, Chad
has received more than twice the originally anticipated total revenue
of the entire 25 year life of the project. COTCO General Manager
Peter Mathys told econoff that during the planning phases of the
project the revenues for Chad and Cameroon were estimated to be at a
ratio of roughly three to one in favor of Chad. Today, the ratio is
approaching 30 to one in favor of Chad, spurring Cameroon's desire to
re-negotiate. Minister of Finance Essimi Menye assured COTCO such a
re-negotiation would be completed in the first quarter of 2010.
Mathys is not so optimistic and has requested more meetings in
January to impress upon the GRC that the negotiations must also
include the government of Chad.

AES-Sonel Still Facing Government Hurdles
--------------


11. (SBU) American-led power concession AES-Sonel remains mired in a
dispute with the GRC over a proposed gas-fired power plant in Kribi
(ref B). The GRC trumpeted a price agreement signed in late
November, finally allowing AES to increase the price of power it can
charge the aluminum smelter in Edea operated by Cameroon's largest
energy consumer, ALUCAM (owned by Rio Tinto). However, AES-Sonel
interim General Manager Jean David Bile told Pol/Econ Chief that the
dispute is far from resolved since the agreement requires AES-Sonel
to produce an additional 50 megawatts of power by 2012 or face $20
million in penalties paid to ALUCAM.


12. (SBU) To address that demand, AES-Sonel made the agreement with
ALUCAM contingent on bringing the Kribi power plant on line by the
end of 2011. The $30 million in financing for construction must be
in place by the end of 2009 to remain on schedule. AES-Sonel is
willing to contribute its 56% share of the capital for the project,
but its lenders want the GRC to guarantee that contribution against
the GRC's ability to have all approvals, permits and other bankable
documents in place by September 30, 2010. The GRC has not been
willing to do so thus far, despite the Ambassador's written appeal to
President Biya for a breakthrough by the end of the year. According
to AES-Sonel, if the parties fail to reach some agreement by January
1, 2010, ALUCAM will no longer have a power supply agreement and the
Kribi project will be delayed.

Comment
--------------


13. (SBU) The complexity and inter-connectedness in the energy and
power production sectors continue to swamp the capacity of the GRC.
Bad governance and decision-making diffused among a plethora of
ministries has combined with declining oil revenues and lack of
infrastructure to produce a dim outlook for the energy sector in

2010. The re-negotiation of the pipeline transit fee won't improve
the outlook significantly, as the fee currently accounts for only
0.2% of government revenue. The significant drop in oil revenues
(from the lower production and lower world prices) will hurt the
government budget (which we will analyze septel).


14. (SBU) AES-Sonel launched an 86 megawatt heavy fuel oil power
plant in Douala (Dibamba) on December 15, which is designed to help
bridge supply gaps. However, no significant new power generation is
expected to come online in 2010. In June, President Biya gave his
Cabinet six months to make real progress in power generation and
infrastructure. While this spurred some new efforts that could reap
benefits in several years, ministers won't be able to show him much
more than promises and agreements in early 2010. As a result, people
in Cameroon will face continued power shortages for at least the
coming year.

GARVEY