CAMEROONIAN PRESIDENT BIYA UNUSUALLY ACTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L YAOUNDE 001046

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2019
TAGS: CM ECON PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROONIAN PRESIDENT BIYA UNUSUALLY ACTIVE

REF: A. YAOUNDE 1007

B. YAOUNDE 972

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e)
.


1. (C) Summary: Cameroonian President Paul Biya has been
uncharacteristically active in the past two months. He
issued a letter to the Cameroonian people, attended two high
profile public events, announced several other future
engagements, encouraged his party to refocus on bread and
butter issues, received three regional heads of state, and
admonished several major partners not to criticize his
decisions. Almost six months ago, Biya reshuffled his
Cabinet and directed his Cabinet to fight inertia and
reenergize the economy; since then, the government has been
more actively pursuing infrastructure projects, although none
has been completed. Biya's new dynamism contrasts with his
usual conservative lethargy. Observers here take it for
granted that he is in active campaign mode to run again in
the next presidential election. His activism also seems
designed to show he's still in charge and to stave off
post-Biya jockeying within his party and government. Biya's
recent activism is fueling widespread speculation that he may
move the scheduled 2011 election forward to 2010. As one of
his senior aides recently told us, "2010 is certain to be
very active." End summary.

The Domestic Signals
--------------


2. (SBU) Biya has been unusually active on the domestic
front. His moves over the past two months included:

-- The letter: As reported ref A, on November 5, on the eve
of the 27th anniversary of his presidency, Biya wrote his
first-ever letter to the nation in the private print media,
which he has usually treated with hostility. While not
widely read by the majority of Cameroonians, the private
media is influential among Cameroon's elites. In the letter,
Biya invoked the World Cup qualifying success of the national
soccer team, the Indomitable Lions, to urge Cameroonians to
feel good about themselves.

-- ENAM: On December 1. Biya attended a ceremony to
commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the National School
of Administration and Magistracy (ENAM). Biya rarely attends
such events, typically delegating someone (often the Prime
Minister) to represent him. ENAM trains all government civil
administrators and judges and these days has a reputation for
producing corrupt and incompetent officials. Biya urged good
governance and patriotism; however, more than his message,
his rare presence got all the media attention.

-- EMIA: On December 4, for the first time in many years,
Biya attended the awards ceremony for two graduating classes
at the Ecole Militaire Interarmees (EMIA). (Biya attended
this ceremony almost every year in the 1990s.)

-- Early announcements: Biya almost never makes early
announcements about events on his calendar. In the past
month, he did so twice. During the visit of Chadian
President Idriss Deby in October, Biya announced the
anticipated visit of Central African Republic President
Francois Bozize in December. During the EMIA event, Biya
announced he would commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of
Cameroonian armed forces in 2010 in Bamenda.

-- CPDM Activism: Biya redirected the ruling Cameroon
People's Democratic Movement (CPDM),which he heads, to shift
priorities to areas of leading national concern, such as
economics, jobs, education and health. CPDM "militants" have
been touring the country with a message conveying this new
focus. A big meeting of the Central Committee in the
President's home town of Sanmelima, South Region, on December
5 reportedly spurred calls for Biya to run and for the party
to train for an election, although it also appeared to reveal
tensions within the local party leadership. Rumors have been
swirling that Biya will create a Vice President position and
that he will soon tour the country (he hasn't traveled in the
country, outside of his village and Yaounde, since 2005).

-- Economic Activism: The past few months have brought a
flurry of movement on major infrastructure projects,
including roads and power projects. The recently completed
budget projects an 11% increase in expenditure despite GDP
growth predictions of 2.4%, reduced anticipated revenues, and
a sizable expected drop in oil production. While the details
of the budget have not yet been released (and will be
reported septel),contacts tell us it includes a heavy boost
for public works and social spending, reflecting the needs of
a more political period.

International Activism
--------------


3. (C) Biya has also shown new energy on the international
stage, including:

-- Central African Leaders Come Calling: In recent years,
Biya has not been active as a regional leader. In the past
three months, Biya received visits from President Ali Bongo
(then President-elect),Chadian President Idris Deby and
Central African President Francois Bozize. In all three
visits, the leaders reportedly focused on security, economics
and regional integration, in anticipation of a December 14
meeting of the Central African Economic and Monetary
Community (CEMAC) in Bangui.

-- Lecturing Western Partners: As reported ref B, on
November 25, Minister of External Relations Henri Eyebe
Ayissi summoned Ambassador to read her a message from
President Biya telling us not to criticize his government,
especially about the Electoral Commission (ELECAM). He
delivered the same message to the European Union, German and
French Ambassadors. This was the first time in our
collective memory that Biya had delivered a demarche in this
format to resident Ambassadors. While it may have been the
product of clumsy diplomacy, Biya may also have hoped to
preempt criticism for an anticipated political move.

An Election in 2010?
--------------


4. (C) Biya and the CPDM have been in campaign mode for
some time and it is increasingly taken for granted that Biya
will run in the next election. His recent activism has made
that more obvious and has fueled speculation that he may call
an early election in 2010. Observers are divided on whether
a 2010 election date is likely and whether a constitutional
amendment would be required to set the stage. The
constitution stipulates that presidential elections should
take place every seven years and does not make provisions for
calling early elections. Nonetheless, no one doubts that
Biya could amend the constitution or find another legal
instrument to move elections forward if he wishes. Some
contacts argue that the Electoral Commission (ELECAM) could
not be ready to run an early election. Our sense is that if
the President wanted, he could make ELECAM technically
capable of running an election in a short period of time,
using the flawed 2007 electoral register, directing the
needed budgetary support, and providing it with property and
staff from the Ministry of Territorial Administration
(MINATD),which used to run elections through its National
Elections Observatory (ONEL). Some observers point out that
ONEL was created only eight months before the June 2002
municipal and legislative elections.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Biya's increased activism is probably not all
indicative of early elections. Biya's new leadership in
Central Africa may be more a consequence of the vacuum left
by the death of former Gabonese President Omar Bonga. The
economic activism may reflect a realization, especially in
the context of the global economic crisis, that Cameroon's
economy needs a jumpstart. Some contacts suggest Biya is now
being served by better staff, who are more savvy about
communication. Some suggest he is motivated by his desire to
leave a stronger legacy of accomplishments, especially with
infrastructure projects. Biya's new hightened pace seems in
part designed to show he is still in charge, fending off
those around him who are already actively jockeying for
post-Biya leadership. This was also a factor in his 2008
decision to eliminate presidential term limits.


6. (C) There are political reasons Biya may want early
elections, in addition to keeping the post-Biya positioning
game off balance. He may be concerned about a reprieve of
the kind of social unrest seen in 2008, given recent
rumblings from trade unions, persistent frustration and
poverty, and publicly voiced concerns about the government's
ability to pay civil service salaries. He may want to
strengthen his hand to neutralize dissenting factions within
the party and buy more time to godfather a successor. He may
also want to take advantage of the feel good factor of
Cameroon's current World Cup soccer success.


7. (C) While early presidential elections are very
possible, Biya is famously enigmatic and likes keeping the
country guessing about his plans. He takes his time in
making decisions and has a reputation of sending mixed
signals that confound even the most seasoned observers. The
Ambassador saw this in a recent meeting with Rene Sadi,
Secretary General of the CPDM and Minister at the Presidency,
one of Biya's closest confidantes. In response to a question
about possible early elections, Sadi responded "anything is
possible. 2010 is certain to be very active."
GARVEY