NAMIBIANS GROW TIRED OF ELECTION DELAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WINDHOEK 000441

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM WA
SUBJECT: NAMIBIANS GROW TIRED OF ELECTION DELAYS

REF: A. WINDHOEK 433

B. WINDHOEK 401

C. WINDHOEK 377

Classified By: Ambassador Dennise Mathieu for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Summary. As vote tabulation enters its sixth day,
Namibians are asking when the final results from the November
27 and 28 general election will be announced. The Electoral
Commission of Namibia (ECN) has confirmed results from 47 of
107 constituencies. Those figures show the South West
African People's Organization (SWAPO) party enjoying a
comfortable lead in both the contest for National Assembly
seats and that for the presidency. The ECN is facing harsh
criticism for the delay, and opposition parties are muttering
that legal action may be necessary if rumors of inappropriate
recounts and mistakes prove true. End summary.

--------------
Official Results
--------------


2. (SBU) As of December 3, the ECN has posted final results
for 47 of Namibia's 107 constituencies. Of the
approximately 327,700 votes that have been counted and
verified, SWAPO maintains a commanding lead with 77 percent
of those votes. The young Rally for Democracy and Progress
(RDP) is performing below expectations (ref A) with just over
nine percent of the vote so far. The rest of the 12
opposition parties are trailing with a combined 14 percent of
the vote. The ECN has confirmed at least some results from
all but one of Namibia's 13 regions (Otjozondjupa). Of
those, SWAPO's strongest performance is in its traditional
base in the northern region of Omusati (97.3 percent of the
vote). Its weakest performance is in Omaheke (36.8 percent
of the vote),where, notably, it still has won more votes
than any other single party. The RDP's best results are
coming from the Hardap and Karas regions in the south, where
it has garnered approximately 28 percent of the vote in the
constituencies that have reported. The UDF party, which
draws most of its support from the Damara ethnic group, thus
far is outpacing SWAPO in its stronghold of Kunene (43.4
percent),and the Herero-based NUDO party is doing well in
its old stomping ground of Omaheke (32.6 percent).


3. (C) Missing from the list of top contenders is the current
official opposition party (that with the most opposition
seats in the National Assembly),the Congress of Democrats
(COD). That the COD is performing poorly (.65 percent)
comes as no shock. The party suffered a well-publicized
schism in 2009, which landed the COD in court and nearly
bankrupted its coffers (ref B). Nevertheless, COD Spokesman
Natji Tjirera told Poloff he was "devastated" by just how bad
the results are. "We will be lucky to get even one seat," he
admitted.

--------------
More Ire for the ECN
--------------


4. (SBU) The ECN, which was heavily criticized during the
pre-election phase and during the polling for providing
inconsistent information and bungling procedures, is bearing
the blame for the delays in the counting and announcement of
results (ref C). Namibians are accustomed to waiting for
election results; in recent national elections, the ECN has
released final results after four or five days. However,
with numbers still trickling in on Day 6, some are
speculating that the slow pace is a sign of trouble. On
December 2, the electoral body made a radio appeal to its
staff, imploring them to report to the head office, while a
team from headquarters urgently flew to four northern regions
to help verify and recount ballots. The ECN held a briefing
with political parties shortly thereafter to explain the
situation. DTA Member of Parliament McHenry Venaani told the
press the opposition was unhappy with the news. He noted
that the Electoral Amendment Act does not provide many
details on how the verification process should be carried
out. According to Venaani's interpretation, once the
verification process is completed, verification and counting
should not be repeated. "Reopening ballot boxes and taking
out ballot papers; that is not good," he said. (Note: ECN
Deputy Director of Operations Theo Mujoro told Poloff that
ballots would be counted only once-- at the polling stations
immediately following the closing of the polls-- and not
recounted at verification centers or at the ECN's results
center. End note.)


5. (U) The RDP has also complained about discrepancies in the
verification process. On December 2, RDP Director of
Administration Libolly Haufiku expressed his party's outrage
that the ECN had not adequately trained its staff in counting
and verification procedures. Moreover, he was worried that

WINDHOEK 00000441 002 OF 002


the numbers posted outside the polling stations and reported
by RDP party agents who witnessed the initial counts on
November 28 and 29, in some instances did not match the ECN's
official results. He cited several cases, among them a
constituency in the Caprivi region, where SWAPO first had
4000 votes but only 2000 after a recount. "How many more
such mistakes have been made? This is a mess." Haufiku told
the press.


6. (C) The press reports that six opposition parties have
joined forces to record irregularities and discrepancies,
which they plan to forward to their attorneys. RDP insider
Toiva Nambinga told Poloff on December 2 that his party was
seriously considering challenging the ECN in court.

--------------
Turnout
--------------


7. (C) The ECN has not released a final figure of the number
of voters who participated in the elections. In recent
months, the ECN had announced several different numbers of
registered voters (ref C). On December 1, Mujoro told Poloff
that there were most likely 1.18 million eligible voters, and
he estimated that somewhere between 700,000 and 800,000
Namibians voted on November 27 and 28.

--------------
Conclusion
--------------


8. (C) The delays in announcing the results are troubling,
but thus far there is no concrete evidence pointing to
electoral fraud. Most likely, this is a case of ineptitude,
rather than widespread rigging. It was clear long before
voting day that the opposition was prepared to mount legal
challenges. Many of the parties have been itching for a
fight with the ECN for months, and the election body has done
little to inspire confidence in the aftermath of the vote.
Even with less than half of the returns confirmed, it seems
certain that SWAPO's presidential candidate, incumbent
President Hifikepunye Pohamba, will be re-elected and likely
that SWAPO will retain its two-thirds majority in the
National Assembly, which gives it the power to amend the
constitution.
MATHIEU