KHABAROVSK GOVERNOR NAMED NEW RFE POLPRED

UNCLAS VLADIVOSTOK 000059

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV RS
SUBJECT: KHABAROVSK GOVERNOR NAMED NEW RFE POLPRED


1. On April 30, Dmitry Medvedev accepted RFE Polpred Oleg
Safonov's resignation and appointed Khabarovsk Governor Viktor
Ishayev as his successor. Though most observers had predicted a
move for the governor who has held power since 1991, few
predicted the move to Polpred. The change in post is not being
seen as a promotion, but rather an honorary position, though one
that will oversee the Russia-European Union Summit in Khabarovsk
later this month and preparations for the 2012 APEC summit in
Vladivostok. The move may be a harbinger of further shakeups in
the Russian Far East, and Primorye Governor Sergey Darkin may be
at the front of the line for changes.


2. Ishayev has a reputation as a strong manager, and was one of
the most independent Russian governors, criticizing cutbacks in
certain social benefits, Russian-Chinese border demarcation, and
Kremlin economic policies. Observers have commented that the
move may be an effort by the Kremlin to shore up authority over
APEC preparations with the Polpred's office, control of which
prior Polpred Safonov 'lost' to Primorye Governor Sergey Darkin.
According to one observer, another task from Medvedev may be
to find a way to replace Primorye Governor Sergey Darkin with a
suitable successor. Vyacheslav Shport, Khabarovsk's Acting
Governor, will likely move to the Governor's office after the
Kray Duma considers him for the position later this week.


3. Outgoing Polpred Safonov was appointed in October 2007 by
Putin to fight corruption and crime in the RFE, but his efforts
were hindered by bureaucratic infighting between the
Prosecutor's Office and the Special Investigative Commission
while pursuing cases against officials in the region. He is a
relative of Viktor Ivanov, the Head of the Anti-Drug Department,
and an entrenched "siloviki." Unnamed sources in his office
commented that they were caught unaware by the move, since
Safonov had a busy schedule for May. There have been no reports
on what his next position will be.


4. Rumors about an end to Ishayev's leadership of the Krai
began to circulate in late 2008 when critical coverage of the
Governor began to emerge from government-run media outlets. The
criticism was reportedly initiated by Deputy Presidential
Administration Head Vladislav Surkov, who was put off by
Ishayev's independence and dissatisfied with his handling of
recent protests. Observers interpreted it as an effort to
prepare the public for a change in leadership. Other signs were
seen even earlier, when Ishayev allies moved into posts
apparently in preparation for his new appointment. In March,
Ishayev lured close ally Shport away from a lucrative
private-sector job into his cabinet and pushed for another close
ally, Aleksandr Levintal, to move into position as Deputy RFE
Polpred under Safonov. Only a month later Ishayev moved into
the RFE Polpred post with one ally as his deputy and the other
as the likely new Khabarovsk Governor.

Comment
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5. In what appears to be a new twist, authorities announced the
latest resignation/appointment at the end of the business week,
giving little chance for comment and review. Ishayev had long
been a mild thorn in the Kremlin's side, so the appointment is
clearly not a reward for loyal service. Putting him in a
position with diminished power is an easy way of taking away
real levers of power, while avoiding the criticism associated
with dismissing a governor. Ishayev is in poor health and
reportedly not personally interested in the new position, so
there will likely be yet another Polpred within the next couple
of years. Safonov held one meeting with the diplomatic corps
and seemed open to international cooperation. Ishayev has
generally not courted foreign investors or cooperation, and is
often quite critical of the U.S. As for Primorye Governor
Darkin, if this move is indeed part of a larger chess game then
Darkin could indeed be vulnerable. However, his demise has been
predicted too many times for us to be taking any bets.

ARMBRUSTER