AUSTRIA: RIGHTWING PARTY EXPECTED TO GAIN IN EU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VIENNA 000659

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN EP AU
SUBJECT: AUSTRIA: RIGHTWING PARTY EXPECTED TO GAIN IN EU
ELECTION

REF: A. VIENNA 600

B. VIENNA 362


1. (U) Summary: The rightwing, xenophobic Freedom Party (FPO)
is expected to place third in the June 7 elections for the
European Parliament with about 17 percent of the vote, nearly
three times the share it drew in the 2004 elections. The
governing Social Democrats (SPO) and People's Party (OVP) are
expected to vie for first, with about 27-28 percent each, a
decline from 2004. The FPO has run a harshly anti-EU,
anti-Muslim, and at times anti-Semitic campaign. It has been
criticized by the other parties for its divisive rhetoric.
The other parties, except for the Greens, have also been
critical of the EU. Public discontent with the EU is
expected to contribute to record low turnout. End Summary.

FPO Set for Gain; SPO, OVP Vie for First
--------------


2. (U) Polls across the board indicate that the FPO is set to
more than double, and perhaps triple, the 6.3 percent it
polled in a weak performance in the 2004 EU elections. The
FPO has gained traction with its harsh anti-EU, anti-Muslim
campaign, featuring slogans such as "The West in Christian
Hands," and "True Representatives Instead of EU Traitors"
(reftels). FPO leader Heinz-Christian Strache, not known for
religious devotion, has recently begun to reinforce his
xenophobic messages with Christian symbols, drawing sharp
rebukes from Catholic leaders. Chancellor Faymann and other
GOA leaders have also accused Strache of anti-Semitism for
pledging to block Israel from joining the EU. The party
recently distributed a comic book in which Strache is
depicted as an Austrian Superman defending the homeland
against the EU, represented by a bloated, cigar-smoking pig.


3. (U) The SPO and OVP are in a tight race for first place,
with each polling about 27-28 percent, somewhat less than
what the two governing parties won in 2004, but about the
same as their take in the September 2008 national elections.
If the vote goes according to the polls, the FPO would place
third with about 17 percent, followed by the candidate list
led by EU whistleblower Hans Peter Martin, with about 15
percent, and the Greens, with about 8 percent. The Alliance
for the Future of Austria is polling at about 4 percent and
seems unlikely to win one of Austria's 17 seats in the EU
Parliament.

Other Parties Divided
--------------


4. (U) In addition to nearly cornering the market on anger
toward the EU and anxieties over immigration, the FPO also
has the advantage of being the only party in the race not
plagued by internal rivalries. The SPO's lead candidate is
the experienced but lackluster Hannes Swoboda, viewed by some
in the party as a poor choice. The OVP replaced veteran
European Parliamentarian (MEP) Otmar Karas with former
Interior Minister Ernst Strasser, a skilled campaigner who,
however, lacks the full support of his party. Similarly, the
Greens removed Johannes Voggenhuber, their most prominent
MEP, in favor of foreign policy expert Ulrike Lunacek,
causing a rift within their ranks.

Campaigns Devoid of Pro-EU Messages
--------------


5. (U) EU-critical themes have dominated the campaigns of all
the parties except the Greens, including issues such as
whether to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, rising
crime for which many blame the Schengen Treaty and EU
enlargement, widespread opposition to Turkish EU membership
(all parties except the Greens),and opposition to a renewed
mandate for European Commission President Barroso (all except
the OVP). Disregard for Brussels is expected to contribute
to record low turnout, perhaps as much as 10 percent below
the 42.4 percent rate in the 2004 elections.

Comment: Will Strache Face Backlash?
--------------


6. (U) Except for the Greens, who have been largely
ineffective, none of the parties have had much to say about
the benefits to Austria of EU membership in public; in
private, many deplore the turn they have taken in the
campaign. The anti-EU tenor of the campaign has played to
the FPO's strength. The other parties appeared to find their
voice only when they joined together in denouncing Strache
for his divisive rhetoric. The criticism of the FPO leader
has been broad and intense -- the latest cover of the
magazine News depicts Strache as Hitler delivering an

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address. The result of the June 7 vote may indicate whether
the critique of Strache (and his party) has awakened voters
to his nationalist (tingeing on racist) populism or whether
he has successfully identified his party with Austrian
sovereignty, values, and patriotism.
ORDWAY