UKRAINIAN AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN ABOUT NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L USUN NEW YORK 000940

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PARM PNUC PGOV UP RS
SUBJECT: UKRAINIAN AMBASSADOR EXPRESSES CONCERN ABOUT NEW
RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE

Classified By: Ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary. Ukrainian PR Sergeyev told Ambassador Wolff
on 21 October of Ukraine's concern about an impending change
in Russian policy on preemptive nuclear strikes contained in
a review of Russia's nuclear doctrine. According to
Sergeyev, the draft text states that Russia reserves the
right to pursue a preemptive nuclear strike, contrasting with
the previous policy that supported the use of nuclear weapons
only as a means of self-defense. Ambassador Sergeyev
indicated that he was meeting with other UN counterparts in
order to share these "very serious developments." End
Summary.


2. (C) Ambassador Wolff on 21 October met with Ukrainian PR
Yuriy Sergeyev at the Ukrainian's request. Sergeyev indicated
that two new Russian military-related texts had been
discussed at a regularly scheduled COM Conference in Kyiv
last week. One was a draft bill about changes in Russian
Federal law on defense issues and the second was a "new
military doctrine" currently being finalized. Ukraine
believes that the second part of this draft document
constitutes a significant change in Russian policy and a new
"aggressive approach" authorizing the use of nuclear force to
protect "Russian interests."


3. (C) Sergeyev expressed concern regarding specific language
about instability on Russia's borders as a possible trigger
and pointed to a statement about new military policy made by
Nikolai Patrushev, Russia's National Security Advisor. In the
Ukrainians' view, these statements indicated that Russia
would consider launching preemptive nuclear strikes. Sergeyev
underlined that this alleged new doctrine not only posed a
threat to border states, such as Ukraine and Moldova, but
also altered the current balance with other world nuclear
powers and potentially challenged them to follow suit and
alter their current defensive nuclear posture.


4. (C) Sergeyev lamented that there are slogans sprouting up
in Kyiv suggesting that Russia is preparing a nuclear war
against Ukraine. He observed that the current situation
reminded him of the 1960s when Khruschev intensified the Cold
War. Sergeyev also pointed out that while Ukraine adheres to
the 1994 Budapest Protocol, this perceived change in Russia's
military doctrine could imply "new circumstances."


5. (C) Sergeyev also expressed concern about the Russian
"passportization" of people in Abkhazia before the Russian
invasion of Georgia. That action and recent Russian mention
of "protecting Russian citizens abroad" has spurred the GOU
to think more about the sizeable Russian population in
Ukraine. In fact, two years ago, Kyiv realized that there
was some "manipulation of passports" in Ukraine.


6. (C) Sergeyev also commented that President Medvedev
declined to meet with the Ukrainian President and Prime
Minister at the United Nations in September, reportedly to
await political changes in Ukraine. Sergeyev added that
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Poroshenko plans to address these
concerns in Moscow on October 23rd.


7. (C) Ambassador Wolff suggested that Ukraine pursue its
concerns and analysis of these "core security issues" in
Washington at both the State and Defense Departments in order
to peel away what is bluster from real. Ambassador Wolff
assured Ambassador Sergeyev that he would alert Washington to
Ukraine's concerns.
Wolff