NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL MEETING, JULY 15, 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 USNATO 000311

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2019
TAGS: PREL NATO EWWT MARR MOPS AF PK RS TZ XW
SUBJECT: NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL MEETING, JULY 15, 2009

REF: USNATO 305

Classified By: A/PolAd A. "Hoot" Baez. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary of the July 15 meeting of the North
Atlantic Council:

-- AFGHANISTAN: Allies asked for a strategic assessment of
the impact of the ongoing operation in Helmand province,
particularly in light of the increasingly heavy casualties
NATO forces are taking. The UK noted the firestorm in the UK
press over these casualties, stressing the need for better
Strategic Communications in order to answer key questions
raised by the press and the public. The Canadian PermRep
asked for recommendations to be made on how ISAF could
augment its economic "footprint" in Afghanistan, including
through increased local procurement. (Note: The discussion on
the deployment of NATO AWACS was reported reftel.)

-- PAKISTAN: The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee
reported on his recent trip to Pakistan.

-- THE 2010-2014 MEDIUM TERM RESOURCE PLAN: Allies were
unable to reach agreement on the 2010 budget ceilings for the
NATO Security Investment Program (NSIP) and the military
budget headquarters. The UK suggested that the Alliance
should lower its ambitions, particularly given the current
global financial crisis.

-- COUNTER-PIRACY: The Deputy Secretary General said the NATO
International Staff (IS) met last week with Tanzanian
officials in order to begin discussions on the establishment
of an agreement for the transfer and detention of captured
pirates. The IS will continue these discussions with
Tanzania and other regional states. Turkey and Greece
reported on their bilateral contributions to regional
capacity building.

-- IRAQ: The NATO-Iraq agreement that would provide a
long-term legal framework for the continuation of the NATO
Training Mission-Iraq was distributed to Allies for final
approval.

END SUMMARY.

Afghanistan
--------------


2. (C/NF) Discontent with the Operations Update: Despite the
high casualty rates suffered by Allies during the previous
week, Deputy Assistant Director of Operations (International
Military Staff) RADM Moreno gave a dry briefing noting that
insurgent activity levels in Regional Commands South and East
were elevated, but consistent with recent weeks. Dutch
PermRep Schaper asked, "In a week with strongly alarming
increases in ISAF casualties, how can we be told that
insurgent activity is 'constant'" The Canadian, Romanian,
UK, and U.S. PermReps argued for a rapid strategic assessment

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of the impact of the current operation in Helmand province.
UK PermRep Eldon said that General McChrystal, the Commander
of NATO's ISAF force in Afghanistan, was likely the best
source of information at this early stage of the operation,
suggesting that McChrystal should brief the Council by video
conference from Kabul as soon as possible. (Note: McChrystal
and SACEUR, Admiral Stavridis, have since been scheduled to
brief the July 22 NAC by video teleconference from Kabul.)
PermReps also wanted to know why insurgent activity had
spiked ) whether in reaction to additional ISAF forces
patrolling deeper into insurgent-controlled territory or
another cause.


3. (C/NF) UK Notes Debate Back Home, Urges StratCom Focus:
Eldon drew PermReps' attention to the media storm the recent
casualties created in the UK press. He noted that recent
public opinion polls had shown an increase in British public
support for the forces serving in Afghanistan, but stressed
that this support was focused on "the forces"--implying the
support was not for the actual mission. He also said that
the increase in support was likely the result of a "rally
'round the flag" effect created by the recent casualties. As
a result, he said that retaining public support would require
good answers on why NATO was in Afghanistan, for how long,
and what the indicators of success would be. Stressing the
importance of Strategic Communications, Eldon urged Allies to
look again at the NATO Spokesman's paper on how to improve
the Alliance's Strategic Communications.


4. (C/REL ISAF) ISAF's Economic Footprint: The Canadian
PermRep--supported by the U.S., UK, and Iceland--called for
follow-up work to the June 29-30 Reinforced Economic
Committee Conference on Afghanistan. He said the conference
had produced a useful set of indicators of ISAF's positive
influence on the legal Afghan economy. He urged the Private
Office to task the International Staff to provide some
concrete recommendations on how ISAF could augment its
economic "footprint," such as through more local procurement.


5. (C/REL ISAF) AWACS: The PermReps' discussion on AWACS
deployments were reported reftel.

CMC Visit to Pakistan
--------------


6. (C/REL ISAF) The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee
(CMC) briefed PermReps on his recent trip to Pakistan, noting
that he had been "treated well" by his hosts. He said the
Pakistani military was fully engaged in the North-West
Frontier, with 140,000 troops arrayed against insurgents. He
reported that the operation in Swat was complete and that
Islamabad was trying to convince nearly two million displaced
persons to return home, including through monetary and
housing reconstruction incentives. CMC characterized
Pakistan Military positions in North and South Waziristan as
"controlling all ways in and out," but emphasized that the
Pakistanis prefer not to launch a large land operation
similar to Swat. He said that they would rather play off

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militant commanders against the primary insurgent target,
Baitullah Mehsud. The Pakistan Military expects a maximum of
500,000 displaced persons from upcoming Waziristan
operations. Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Kayani reportedly
told the CMC that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence was
"reasonably under control," but recognized that splinter
groups might still support the Taliban and other militants.
CMC said that his hosts had expressed concerns that ISAF
operations undertaken by the additional international troops
that are flowing into Afghanistan's south and east might
cause insurgents to flee across the border into Pakistan.
CMC added that Pakistan was looking to the international
community -- including NATO as its political engagement with
Pakistan increases -- to serve as a third-party moderator to
improving India-Pakistan relations. At the same time, he
noted that Islamabad was "very jealous" of its sovereignty.

NSIP AND MILITARY BUDGETS: AMBITIONS OUTSTRIP RESOURCES
-------------- --------------


7. (C/REL NATO) THE 2010-2014 MEDIUM TERM RESOURCE PLAN:
Nations were unable to reach agreement on the 2010 budget
ceilings for the NATO Security Investment Program (NSIP) and
the military budget headquarters. Most nations were able to
support the higher figures for the two budgets (Euros 653.3
million for NSIP and Euros 544.5 million for the Headquarters
O and M),however, six nations (including the UK, FR, NL, DK)
insisted on maintaining a lower NSIP ceiling of Euros 640.5
million and a five percent cut to the military headquarters O
and M budget (Euros 519.5 million).


8. (C/REL NATO) The Chairman of the NATO Military Committee
stressed that the gap between the Alliance's ambition and its
budget was only getting larger. He said that lower budget
figures could seriously impact the Alliance's ability to
achieve its ambitions, including in areas such as outreach
and exercises. Turkey led those arguing for higher budget
ceilings, noting that current operations were not the only
thing the Alliance is about. In response, the UK said
that--particularly in the current financial situation--larger
budget figures were unreasonable and the Alliance should
instead look seriously at lowering its level of ambition. He
stressed the need to "prioritize." He also said that the
mechanisms by which NSIP works were inadequate, arguing for
the need to move away from the "1984 arrangements" and the
"first-come, first-served" principle. The Private Office
will attempt to resolve the dispute over the next week by
negotiating with the nations involved.

Counter-Piracy
--------------


9. (C) The Deputy Secretary General said the NATO
International Staff (IS) met with officials from the
Tanzanian Embassy in Brussels to discuss the establishment of
an agreement for the transfer and detention of captured
pirates. During the discussions, the Tanzanians had stressed
that there would be no solution to the piracy issue until the

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root causes of piracy were addressed. IS officials will soon
travel to Djibouti, Tanzania, Kenya, and the Seychelles for
further discussions on this topic.


10. (C) Turkey called for NATO to get involved in regional
capacity building to address the root causes of piracy. In
this regard, Turkey reported that it had decided to donate
several coast guard vessels to Kenya and was considering
providing coast guard training to regional states, including
Kenya, Djibouti, and Yemen. Greece said it was considering
providing similar training and--given developments within
Somalia--called on NATO Military Authorities to monitor for
links between piracy and radical elements.

Iraq
--------------


11. (C/NF) The Deputy Secretary General said that Allies had
been asked to approve the draft NATO-Iraq Long-Term Agreement
(LTA) on the status of the NATO Training Mission-Iraq. He
said it already had the provisional approval of PM Maliki and
the Iraqi Council of Ministers. Once the NAC approved the
document, NATO would invite the Iraqi defense minister to
come to Brussels to sign the agreement, possibly as early as
next week. In response to concerns raised by Turkey, the
Deputy Secretary General said that the letter of invitation
to the Defense Minister would highlight Allied concerns. The
Deputy Secretary General noted that the NATO Legal Advisor
had reviewed the document and concluded that it provided
sufficient protection to NATO personnel arrested in Iraq. He
also recalled a letter from Iraqi President Talabani in which
Talabani had guaranteed due process in accordance with Iraqi
laws and those of the sending nations.
DAALDER