U/S TAUSCHER DECEMBER 4 MEETING WITH CTBTO EXECUTIVE

UNCLAS UNVIE VIENNA 000561

SENSITIVE, SIPDIS

DEPT FOR ISN/MNSA, VCI/NA, IO/GS, L/ACV
DOE FOR NN-40
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SECDEF FOR OSD/ISP, ATSH/NCB/NT, DTRA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PARM AORC KTBT
SUBJECT: U/S TAUSCHER DECEMBER 4 MEETING WITH CTBTO EXECUTIVE
SECRETARY TOTH

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.


1. (SBU) Under Secretary Tauscher met December 4 with Comprehensive
Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Executive Secretary
Tibor Toth in Vienna. The main discussion topic was the prospect of
ratification of the Treaty in the U.S. Senate. Tauscher told
ExecSec Toth that the President's speech in Prague last spring is
still the best summary of the administration's plans. As for the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT),there are three factors
involved in the ratification by the U.S. senate.

-- The Administration first needs to provide the necessary
information for Senators to make an informed decision and for the
U.S. public to understand what was at stake.

Tauscher argued that the planned Nuclear Posture Review, an
anticipated National Intelligence Estimate, and the National Academy
of Science study on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the
CTBTO will be the key documents. They should all appear in the
February to May 2010 timeframe.

-- The second factor is raising awareness of the Treaty in the U.S.
domestic audience.

-- The third factor will be the political conditions in the U.S. at
the time the Treaty goes to the Senate.


2. (SBU) Tauscher said the administration will not take the Treaty
to the Senate until we have the required 67 votes. 2010, Tauscher
cautioned, will be a short legislative year because of midterm
elections. The Treaty could be voted on before the end of July. If
2010 is not feasible, the Administration will aim for ratification
in 2011, which will be a longer legislative year.


3. (U) Toth replied that he understood the U.S. reasoning and the
need to be absolutely sure of Senate confirmation. He promised to
work to manage expectations. He then went on to review some of the
arguments that opponents of the Treaty have been using and to
suggest ways in which these attacks might be countered. Some, for
example, have argued that there is no clear interpretation of
crucial parts of the Treaty among nuclear weapons states. He also
expressed concern about claims that U.S. allies might doubt the
continued deterrent strength of the U.S. nuclear arsenal if the U.S.
ratifies the Treaty, as well as questions about whether the Treaty
would have any effect in dealing with countries such as the DPRK or
Iran. Tauscher replied that the administration is aware of these
questions and has plans to answer them.


4. (U) U/S Tauscher cleared this cable.

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