IAEA/DG RACE: AMANO WINS NARROW VICTORY DUE TO ONE

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000318

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN
PLS PASS SECDEF TRAVEL TEAM FOR D(S) STEINBERG
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
DOE FOR NA-20
NSC FOR SCHEINMAN, CONNERY
NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA SI SF BE
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: AMANO WINS NARROW VICTORY DUE TO ONE
ABSTENTION

REF: UNVIE 315 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA Geoffrey R. Pyatt for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Japanese DG candidate Yukiya Amano narrowly won the
required two-thirds majority in a final "confidence" vote
July 2. One abstention in the final tally (23 "Yes" 11 "No"
and 1 abstention) lowered the margin for victory to 23 votes.
This completes the "Selection Stage" of the DG election
process. The Board will reconvene July 3 in open session for
the "Appointment Stage" to make a formal appointment,
hopefully by acclamation as has been the previous practice.
The Brazilian DCM commented to us afterward that he thought
all (including Brazil which voted for Minty) would want to
treat the election now as "water under the bridge." That
said, the rules of procedure allow for a further vote to be
called in the Appointment Stage to confirm the result. The
Japanese are taking nothing for granted, given rumors of
Russian gripping prior to the vote, repeated by an unnamed EU
diplomat to the press, that a narrow win would exacerbate
North-South divisions. Meeting with a small group of core
Amano supporters (U.S., Canada, Australia, France) after the
vote, Japanese Ambassador-designate Nakane was not sure if
this was a bluff or whether there would be a challenge during
the Appointment Stage. He asked Amano supporters to take the
floor to oppose any such challenge, citing past practice.
Nakane stressed that a 23 plus 1 vote is not divisive and
would not have been possible without "South" support for
Amano. He also hoped for many congratulatory statements,
including by the EU and "South" countries and asked France to
solicit Spain's acquiescence to an EU statement.
Furthermore, appointment by acclamation was essential to help
forestall what would be an unprecedented challenge in the
General Conference, which approves, traditionally by
consensus, the Board's appointment of the Director General.
Charge reported that the 2009 GC President, New Zealand, had
spoken July 2 to the Board Chair who is not expecting any
challenge. Canada noted that it would amend its
congratulatory statement to envisage consensus approval in
the General Conference and suggested others do the same.


2. (C) Leading up to the final vote was an elimination round,
in which Spanish candidate Echavarri was eliminated as
expected by a vote of Amano 20- Minty 10- Echavarri 5. We
believe the five Echavarri supporters included Spain, Russia,
Germany, Romania and another unknown EU member, voting out of
EU solidarity. This was followed by three inconclusive
ballots in an Amano-Minty runoff, all of which resulted in a
vote of Amano 23, Minty 12. Russia and Spain defected to
Minty in a tactical vote to block Amano's election while the
three other EU Echavarri supporters shifted to Amano in the
runoff. This result confirmed with expectations of 24
"commitments" for Amano minus one unknown "betrayal."
Following the three ballots, a simple majority procedural
vote to determine who was the "leading candidate" produced
the same result, Amano 23, Minty 12. A Minty supporter
abstained in the final confidence vote (Yes/No/Abstain on
Amano as "leading candidate") to give the election to Amano.
Judging from his reaction after the vote, we suspect India
held to its commitment in the "confidence vote," with the
Indian Ambassador going out of his way to congratulate Amano
on the eve of his Foreign Minister's arrival in Tokyo.
PYATT