Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09UNVIEVIENNA180
2009-04-24 11:44:00
SECRET
UNVIE
Cable title:
IAEA/DG RACE: BELGIUM TO THROW HAT IN THE RING
how-toVZCZCXYZ0000 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHUNV #0180 1141144 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 241144Z APR 09 FM USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9337 INFO RUEHII/VIENNA IAEA POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0203 RUEHLJ/AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA PRIORITY 0128 RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 0032 RHEBAAA/DOE WASHDC PRIORITY RUEANFA/NRC WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000180
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
DOE FOR NA-20
NSC FOR CONNERY
NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA MY SI SF BE
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: BELGIUM TO THROW HAT IN THE RING
REF: A) UNVIE 156 B) UNVIE 178
Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d
S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000180
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
DOE FOR NA-20
NSC FOR CONNERY
NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA MY SI SF BE
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: BELGIUM TO THROW HAT IN THE RING
REF: A) UNVIE 156 B) UNVIE 178
Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d
1. (C) Following earlier reports (ref a) of a possible
Belgian candidacy for IAEA Director General, the Belgian
Mission confirmed April 24 that the nomination of Jean-Pol
Poncelet, though not yet official, would be submitted either
later the same day or early April 27 (the last day for
nominations). The Belgian Mission is awaiting its Foreign
Minister's signature of the official letter. The Mission had
advised the Board Chair April 24 and EU counterparts that the
nomination was forthcoming. A former Deputy Prime Minister,
Energy and Defense Minister, Poncelet is seen as a consensus
figure in Belgian domestic politics. According to a UK brief
on Poncelet, he is a civil nuclear engineer by training and
has a strong background on nuclear issues deriving from his
former Energy portfolio and his current work at French
nuclear giant Areva. Preliminary reaction to the Poncelet
candidacy was muted among EU3 (UK, France, Germany) DCMs in a
separate meeting April 24. He is not well-known to the local
Missions. The UK DCM qualified the situation "as a mess" and
all acknowledged that EU coordination would be complicated.
No one had instructions.
2. (S) Poncelet's entry into the mix is likely to further
splinter the eight EU votes on the Board in early rounds of
balloting. However, having a third EU candidate may not
change the field in the long run. It is likely that two of
the three current EU candidates will be eliminated or
withdraw due to insufficient support. Thus, we are likely to
end up with an Amano-Minty-Euro "semi-final." The key
remains who will make it to the final two: an Amano-Minty
replay of March; an Amano-Euro contest or, less likely, a
Euro-Minty runoff. The second option may be the most
advantageous, with two good candidates, but would be
difficult to engineer (ref b). Ironically, the more
successful Japan is in its lobbying campaign, the more likely
we are to face an Amano-Minty replay, i.e., if Amano gets
substantial EU support, a European candidate is unlikely to
make the final round.
3. (C) In the April 24 meeting, German DCM claimed to have
been surprised by Minty's re-entry into the race and
interpreted it as an effort on the part of the G-77, given
the absence of any other strong candidate from the "South,"
to maintain a blocking minority and thus influence the
election. Following a long discussion with Minty this week,
the German Ambassador reported the South African was in his
polarizing mode, complaining that Germany and others had
failed to credit him for South Africa's leadership on
non-proliferation issues. Responding to inquiries, the U.S.
confirmed continued support for Amano while we review the
state of play. German DCM was personally doubtful of Amano's
prospects, with the UK DCM agreeing that Amano had less of a
chance with Minty back in the race. French DCM was
personally more optimistic that Amano could narrowly pull
through against Minty. France reported that a Bin Muslim
candidacy was now unlikely, allowing the NAM/G-77 to coalesce
around Minty. French DCM had also heard that Russia is
supportive of Echavarri. German DCM still hoped for a Latin
candidate, Pfirter or Skoknic, but acknowledged the lack of
GRULAC coordination. The UK advised that the U.S. position
could influence Buenos Aires but a Pfirter candidacy seemed
unlikely based on FCO inquiries.
4.(C) France remains concerned about DG ElBaradei's re-entry
into the race in the event of deadlock this next round. If
this is the case, the French would prefer to drag the
election into September in the hopes of a "fresh face"
emerging rather than risking another ElBaradei term. There
is no indication of any interest as yet on the part of
ElBaradei.
SCHULTE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
DOE FOR NA-20
NSC FOR CONNERY
NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA MY SI SF BE
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: BELGIUM TO THROW HAT IN THE RING
REF: A) UNVIE 156 B) UNVIE 178
Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d
1. (C) Following earlier reports (ref a) of a possible
Belgian candidacy for IAEA Director General, the Belgian
Mission confirmed April 24 that the nomination of Jean-Pol
Poncelet, though not yet official, would be submitted either
later the same day or early April 27 (the last day for
nominations). The Belgian Mission is awaiting its Foreign
Minister's signature of the official letter. The Mission had
advised the Board Chair April 24 and EU counterparts that the
nomination was forthcoming. A former Deputy Prime Minister,
Energy and Defense Minister, Poncelet is seen as a consensus
figure in Belgian domestic politics. According to a UK brief
on Poncelet, he is a civil nuclear engineer by training and
has a strong background on nuclear issues deriving from his
former Energy portfolio and his current work at French
nuclear giant Areva. Preliminary reaction to the Poncelet
candidacy was muted among EU3 (UK, France, Germany) DCMs in a
separate meeting April 24. He is not well-known to the local
Missions. The UK DCM qualified the situation "as a mess" and
all acknowledged that EU coordination would be complicated.
No one had instructions.
2. (S) Poncelet's entry into the mix is likely to further
splinter the eight EU votes on the Board in early rounds of
balloting. However, having a third EU candidate may not
change the field in the long run. It is likely that two of
the three current EU candidates will be eliminated or
withdraw due to insufficient support. Thus, we are likely to
end up with an Amano-Minty-Euro "semi-final." The key
remains who will make it to the final two: an Amano-Minty
replay of March; an Amano-Euro contest or, less likely, a
Euro-Minty runoff. The second option may be the most
advantageous, with two good candidates, but would be
difficult to engineer (ref b). Ironically, the more
successful Japan is in its lobbying campaign, the more likely
we are to face an Amano-Minty replay, i.e., if Amano gets
substantial EU support, a European candidate is unlikely to
make the final round.
3. (C) In the April 24 meeting, German DCM claimed to have
been surprised by Minty's re-entry into the race and
interpreted it as an effort on the part of the G-77, given
the absence of any other strong candidate from the "South,"
to maintain a blocking minority and thus influence the
election. Following a long discussion with Minty this week,
the German Ambassador reported the South African was in his
polarizing mode, complaining that Germany and others had
failed to credit him for South Africa's leadership on
non-proliferation issues. Responding to inquiries, the U.S.
confirmed continued support for Amano while we review the
state of play. German DCM was personally doubtful of Amano's
prospects, with the UK DCM agreeing that Amano had less of a
chance with Minty back in the race. French DCM was
personally more optimistic that Amano could narrowly pull
through against Minty. France reported that a Bin Muslim
candidacy was now unlikely, allowing the NAM/G-77 to coalesce
around Minty. French DCM had also heard that Russia is
supportive of Echavarri. German DCM still hoped for a Latin
candidate, Pfirter or Skoknic, but acknowledged the lack of
GRULAC coordination. The UK advised that the U.S. position
could influence Buenos Aires but a Pfirter candidacy seemed
unlikely based on FCO inquiries.
4.(C) France remains concerned about DG ElBaradei's re-entry
into the race in the event of deadlock this next round. If
this is the case, the French would prefer to drag the
election into September in the hopes of a "fresh face"
emerging rather than risking another ElBaradei term. There
is no indication of any interest as yet on the part of
ElBaradei.
SCHULTE