IAEA/DG RACE: MINTY RE-ENTERS RACE, CHANGING THE

S E C R E T UNVIE VIENNA 000178

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR D(S),P, T, IO, ISN
PARIS ALSO FOR USOECD
DOE FOR NA-20
NSC FOR CONNERY
NRC FOR DOANE, SCHWARTZMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL KNNP IAEA SP JA MY SI SF
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: MINTY RE-ENTERS RACE, CHANGING THE
PLAYING FIELD

REF: A) UNVIE 177 B) STATE 38611 C) STATE 34652

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey R, Pyatt

Summary
--------------


1. (S) The IAEA Secretariat confirmed that South Africa had
officially submitted its re-nomination of Governor Abdul
Minty for Director General April 21. Minty's performance in
the first round proves he cannot win, but he has emerged as a
standard-bearer for the "non-aligned" members of the IAEA.
With several days left until the nomination deadline, it is
impossible to assess the full range of candidates, but thus
far this is shaping into a three-man race between Japanese
Governor Amano, Minty and Spanish candidate Luis Echavarri.
Minty stands a good chance of being one of two remaining
frontrunners after the elimination rounds, given the split in
the Western vote. An Amano-Echavarri runoff would be optimal
for U.S. interests, but securing it would require Echavarri
to cleave support from Minty while not undercutting too much
of Amano's support. Slovenian candidate Petric will likely
be eliminated early; Petric lacks a natural constituency,
with the Western vote going to Amano and Echavarri and the
G-77 supporting Minty. A Belgian candidacy at this juncture
seems unlikely and would potentially further splinter the
Western vote. Even if Chilean Ambassador Skoknic or
prospective Malaysian candidate Bin Muslim entered the race,
they will almost certainly fall by the wayside with Minty
back in the game. Japanese DCM Nakane assessed April 22 that
Buenos Aires did not intend to nominate OPCW head Rogelio
Pfirter. In response to ref b, Nakane relayed that the
Japanese Embassy will request appointments for Amano in
Washington May 11-13. End Summary.

The Minty Factor
--------------


2. (S) South African IAEA Governor Abdul Minty's re-entry in
the race for IAEA Director General significantly complicates
the playing field and raises the chances of another
Minty-Amano stalemate. Given that the "Western" vote is
likely to be split, Minty could emerge as one of the two
remaining frontrunners after elimination rounds of voting.
To avoid a repeat of the March Amano-Minty standoff and
further stalemate, we would need to ensure that another
candidate can garner sufficient support to out-vote Minty
while not detracting too much support from Amano. Although
Minty's re-nomination deprives OECD Nuclear Energy Agency
head Luis Echavarri (Spain) of "bridge builder" potential,
Echavarri is currently positioned as the strongest candidate
to eliminate Minty, though much of his support would come
from the Amano camp. Minty is likely to retain a core of
support from South Africa, Brazil, India, Cuba, Egypt, and
Algeria. The key for Echavarri would be to also cleave off
most of the other countries that provided Minty his blocking
third in March: Russia, China, Argentina, Malaysia, Mexico
and Philippines, as well as possibly the UK. Amano and
Echavarri would presumably split the remaining 23 Board
members. Therefore, unless some of the "Minty 12" defect to
a candidate such as Echavarri, Minty will emerge as one of
the two frontrunners in a runoff ballot. Among the 12,
Argentina and Russia might be inclined to support Echavarri,
according to Japanese DCM Nakane, who advised Charge April 22
that Spain had told this Mission that Russia, along with
other nuclear power countries, encouraged Echavarri's
candidacy. (Comment: UNVIE cannot substantiate this rumor, as
such a decision would have been made in Moscow, likely
without the involvement of Russia's Vienna Mission. End
Comment.) Japan is continuing to lobby Russia and is still
unsure what motivated its decision not to support Amano in
March. Japanese PM Aso will also visit Beijing this month.
Nakane was not surprised by South Africa's re-nomination of
Minty on the eve of the South African parliamentary election.
He speculated that the decision was made so as to keep a
strong G-77 candidate in the mix on the expectation that the
Western vote would splinter.

Preliminary Vote Count
--------------


3. (S) At this juncture, most Board members are not
committing to a candidate, with many withholding judgment
until the close of nominations. Amano seems to have

maintained support from those who favor a technical approach
to running the IAEA, but the general enthusiasm has waned.
Japan also confirmed to us that while it has some firm
commitments, other supporters are taking a wait-and-see
position. Despite the change in tone, over the past ten days
counterparts from eight Vienna missions told us they expected
their capitals to maintain support for Amano. Japanese DCM
Nakane on April 22 was fairly confident of Afghanistan's
continued support but nevertheless requested active U.S.
advocacy with WEOG members, Iraq, Afghanistan and Saudi
Arabia. (Note: Afghanistan's Ambassador informed us
privately after his return from consultations in Kabul that
Afghanistan's support for Amano had not changed. Likewise,
Australia has pledged firm support. End Note.) With
Echavarri in the race, the EU is expected to split. Nakane
reported that France is undecided and queried DCM about the
U.K.'s position, which was unclear to Japan. Romania and
Ireland also told us that they may shift their vote to a
European candidate. Amano is even planning to visit Albania,
one his strongest proponents, next week to reconfirm Tirana's
support. Charge noted that it will be essential for Japan to
retain the support of the seven or eight developing countries
that voted for Amano in March. In addition to Iraq,
Afghanistan and Ghana, Japan expects continued support from
Ecuador, as the latter's decision was made at the
Presidential level. In the course of UNVIE's soundings,
Ecuador, Mexico, Lithuania, Brazil, Uruguay and the
Philippines declined to comment until "all nominations were
in." With Minty back in the race, we would expect Brazil and
India to continue to support him. Nakane reported that the
Philippines will base its decision on whether Malaysia
nominates Bin Muslim, which seems increasingly unlikely given
Minty's re-entry.


Getting to the Right Two
--------------


4. (S) While an Amano-Echavarri run off would be optimal for
U.S. interests, it will be difficult to engineer. Since
Minty will probably retain most of his core support, this
would require a delicate balance to ensure Echavarri gets
enough support to come in second without completely
undercutting Amano. Key swing votes such as Argentina and
Russia could make the difference in suppressing Minty to a
third-place finish. In a Japan-Spain runoff, neither Amano
nor Echavarri would be likely to get to two-thirds in the
first three rounds of voting, but in a "leading candidate"
vote, Board members would be more likely to shift support
than in an Amano-Minty contest. An Amano-Minty runoff would
likely end in further stalemate. In an Echavarri-Minty race,
Echavarri might be able to secure WEOG, Latin American and
Russian support, but Spain would be hard pressed to deliver
the kind of developing-world support (Afghanistan, Ghana,
Iraq, etc.) that Japan was able to generate with its
assistance program.
PYATT