IAEA/DG RACE: CANDIDATES NEED APPLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000141

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR IO, ISN, P AND D

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL PARM TRGY IAEA KNNP JA SF SI CI MY
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG RACE: CANDIDATES NEED APPLY

REF: UNVIE 132 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d


1. (C) Summary: Former Board Chairs Chilean Ambassador
Milenko Skoknic and former Slovenian Ambassador Ernesto
Petric separately informed Ambassador Schulte April 1-2 that
their respective governments are considering nominating them
for IAEA Director General. Chile is consulting with other
Latin American governments and will factor in Buenos Aires's
view in particular. Skoknic hoped for a decision by April
20; Petric anticipated a decision in Ljubjana by April 9.
According to press reports, Malaysia will support the
candidacy of former DDG for Technical Cooperation, Normaly
Bin Muslim, though the Ambassador here said no decision had
been taken. None of these candidates are viewed as likely to
secure the required two-thirds of the Board. As of opening
of business April 6, the Secretariat had not received any
nominations from any government. Still scathing from the
lack of Western support, South African Adbul Minty did not
indicate interest in being re-nominated in an April 1
discussion with Ambassador Schulte. Ambassador Schulte
assured Minty that the U.S. had given careful consideration
to both candidates and had not campaigned against him. The
two agreed to continue working together closely, despite the
regrettable tone of Minty's closing statement at the March 27
Special Session. End Summary.


2. (C) Former IAEA Board of Governors Chair and Slovenian
Ambassador Petric, who is currently Chief Justice of the
Supreme Court, called Ambassador Schulte Aril 1 to advise
that his government will formally decide on April 9 whether
to nominate him for the IAEA DG post. The IAEA would then be
immediately informed, Petric would come to Vienna to consult
with Board members, and demarches would be made in capitals.
Petric suggested he could be a compromise candidate,
acceptable to the Western Europe and Others Group (WEOG) but
more acceptable to the NAM, particularly as a former
Yugoslav, than Amano. Slovenia, he acknowledged, could not
mount a lobbying campaign on the scale of Japan's. If he
does not have support, his nomination would be withdrawn,
Petric said. Petric likened himself to current Chilean
Ambassador Milenko Skoknic in terms of his IAEA experience,
though he has also held a Ministerial portfolio. Given his
age, Petric said he would serve only one term. Ambassador
Schulte was non-committal and advised that Washington is
considering next steps. (Comment: It is not clear that
Petric would have EU support, much less broader support on
the Board. As a former Board Chair (2006-2007) like his
predecessor Amano, Petric's stance on Iran would not make him
popular among the NAM. End comment.)


3. (C) Former Board Chair and Chilean Ambassador Skoknic
phoned Ambassador Schulte April 2 to advise that he has
formally requested his government to consider nominating him
for Director General. He is so informing Board members,
though the decision is still pending at the Ministerial
level. The Chilean government is first consulting with other
Latin American countries, and will accord particular
importance to Buenos Aires's view. (Comment: Presumably,
Chile has no desire to contend with a Pfirter candidacy. End
Comment.) Skoknic noted that the Summit of the Americas
would take place on April 16-17 and hoped for a decision by
April 20. Predictably, Skoknik discounted the prospects for
potential Argenitine candidate Rogelio Pfirter, who Skoknic
claims has issues with President Kirchner. Skoknic also
speculated that former Mexican President Zedillo would be
appointed to another (unspecified) UN post. Skoknic noted
that Amano and Minty had divided every group - the P5,
GRULAC, Asia, Africa and New Agenda coalition - and he
envisioned himself as more of a consensus candidate.
(Comment: Absent a Pfirter candidacy, Skoknik could draw
GRULAC and possible NAM support coming from a NAM member
country. Although a decent Board Chair, he is not seen as a
heavy-hitter who can command broad consensus. Whether he can
garner WEOG and P5 support as the best qualified candidate is
questionable. End Comment.)


4. (C) According to a press report, Malaysia will endorse the
candidacy of Normaly Bin Muslim, Chairman of the Malaysian
Atomic Energy Licensing Board and former DDG for Technical
Cooperation in the 1980s. Heretofore, Bin Muslim's interest
in the DG position was considered personal, with even the
Malaysian Ambassador in Vienna discounting his candidacy. Of
advanced age and long out of the IAEA loop, he is not seen as
serious contender though he could get some NAM support. As
of April 3, the Malaysian Ambassador, who has never shown any
personal interest in promoting Bin Muslim, said that his
government had not taken a decision.


5. (C) In an April 1 discussion with Ambassador Schulte,
South African candidate Abdul Minty relayed South Africa's
disappointment with the lack of any Western support or a
"fair hearing" from Western countries. Minty said he had
anticipated that the U.S. would support Japan, due to our
strategic relationship, but had nonetheless hoped for more
favorable consideration from the Obama administration. Minty
also recalled his role in helping the U.S. secure indefinite
extension of the NPT in the 1995 Revcon. He expressed
unhappiness at the "disinformation" surrounding the campaign
and the three governments that shifted their votes to Amano
on the second day of balloting. In light of his defeat, he
indicated that the new RSA government would review its
policies at the IAEA. Ambassador Schulte expressed concern
with Minty's March 27 closing statement in the Board's
Special Session and emphasized the need to build bridges on
the Board, not burn them, given the importance of the IAEA to
both countries. He congratulated Minty on an otherwise
dignified campaign and assured him that the U.S. had not
campaigned against him. Minty agreed to continue working
closely together.


6. (C) Although not asked directly, Minty did not indicate an
interest in being re-nominated for IAEA DG or that his
government is considering this; nor is he interested in other
international posts such as at OPCW. Noting the election
later this month in South Africa, he said he may be given a
new portfolio in the new government on nonproliferation and
nuclear energy issues. In the interim, he will remain in
Vienna on other business.
SCHULTE