IAEA/DG: AMANO LOSES BY ONE VOTE, SLATE WIPED CLEAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L UNVIE VIENNA 000132

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR IO, ISN, P AND D

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2019
TAGS: AORC PREL PARM TRGY IAEA KNNP JA SF
SUBJECT: IAEA/DG: AMANO LOSES BY ONE VOTE, SLATE WIPED CLEAN

REF: A) STATE: 28852 B) UNVIE 128

Classified By: Ambassador Gregory L. Schulte for reasons 1.4 b and d

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Despite an intensive and successful overnight lobbying
campaign, Japanese Governor Amano fell one vote short of the
required two-thirds majority to be appointed IAEA Director
General. In this second day of balloting, March 27, the
Board of Governors held three votes in succession: first, a
simple majority vote to determine who was the "leading
candidate," which Amano handily won by a vote of
23(Amano)-12(Minty)-O abstentions; second, an up or down vote
on Amano as the "leading candidate" in which he fell one vote
short of two-thirds, 22 Yes-12 No-1 Abstain, and a final up
or down vote on South African Governor Minty as the "second
candidate," which Minty lost by a vote of 15 Yes-19 No- 1
Abstain. There is no indication of which Board member may
have shifted its vote between the first and second rounds
from support of Amano to an abstention, but that shift had no
bearing on the final result. The decisive factor was that
Minty's blocking third of the vote held firm, denying Amano a
victory. After the vote, Minty levied thinly veiled
criticism at proponents of "change" who failed to support his
candidacy and a threat of payback. With neither candidate
able to secure two-thirds, the Board Chair wiped the slate
clean and would circulate a new call for nominations on
Monday March 30, with a deadline for nominations to be set
"within four weeks" in accordance with the Rules of
Procedure. Other Board members expressed concern about a
deepening rift in the IAEA's governing body and the risk that
substantive action on Iran, the budget and other matters will
now be deferred by jockeying to succeed ElBaradei. End
Summary.

Japan Expected to Do Better
--------------


2. (C) Prior to the March 27 voting in the IAEA Board of
Governors, Japan told like-minded delegations that after a
final round of high-level calls and other lobbying efforts on
March 26-27 directed at 20 Board members, it had received
firm pledges from around 24 countries - "a little bit more."
Amano himself discounted this prognostication and was not
optimistic, since Japan had received more or less the same
commitments prior to the previous day's balloting, which
means "some are lying." Japan had encouraged Minty
supporters to vote Yes or at least abstain in the "leading
candidate" vote for Amano, and Amano had some expectation of
the vote shifting in his favor. France reported on the basis
of a demarche in Buenos Aires that Argentina would vote
against Amano "due to South-South solidarity." Mexico also
appeared to have supported Minty, and in an early March 27
phone call the Japanese reiterated the request for help in
Mexico City.


3. (C) In the end, Amano was able to turn two to three
countries, likely including Ghana, and increased his support
from 20-21 votes on March 26 to 22-23 votes on March 27. The
shift gave him an impressive majority in the first vote to
determine the "leading candidate" but fell one vote short of
the two-thirds required in the second ballot for Amano to
win. The key factor was that Minty managed to hold on to the
blocking one-third of the votes with no defections among his
12 core supporters in the second ballot, thus denying Amano a
victory. If just one additional Minty supporter had shifted
to a "Yes" vote or "Abstain," Amano would have won
notwithstanding the other abstention. There was no shift in
favor of Minty on the final "second candidate" ballot; he did
not fare any better than the day before with only 15
affirmative votes in support, well short of two-thirds.

Slate Wiped Clean
--------------


4. (SBU) Given that neither candidate had secured two-thirds,
the Board Chair declared the slate wiped clean. She noted
that candidates can be re-nominated. The Board Chair will
circulate a note to Member States on March 30 to call for
nominations "within four weeks" as prescribed by the Rules of
Procedure. Asked by Brazil for more specificity on the
nominations deadline, she reiterated the procedural rule.
After the meeting, the Secretary of the Policy Making Organs
indicated to Msnoff that the intention was to allow the full
four weeks for nominations, meaning the deadline would be
toward the end of April. Upon the closure of nominations,
the Board Chair said she would hold informal consultations
with a view toward identifying a consensus candidate, or
failing that, organize a vote to allow for an appointment
during the June Board of Governors meeting "at the latest."


5. (SBU) Assuming a late-April deadline, the next rounds of
voting are likely to occur over the course of May. If, as
expected, there are more than two candidates, the Chair may
chose to conduct informal "straw polls" before organizing a
vote. The formal voting would follow the same procedure as
the first round on March 26-27, as outlined in GOV/2008/44.
However, if there are multiple candidates, the voting would
begin with a series of elimination rounds, with the candidate
receiving the lowest number of votes being eliminated after
each vote, until there are only two candidates left. Then
the voting would proceed exactly as before: up to three
rounds of voting, followed by votes on the "leading" and
"second" candidates.

Minty a Sore Loser, Promises Payback
--------------


6. (SBU) Asking for the floor at the end of the meeting,
Minty assumed the mantle of champion of the "South." He
expressed appreciation to the African Union and assured all
those who voted for him that their support would not be
forgotten. In thinly veiled criticism, Minty noted that he
had hoped "those who advocated change in their relations with
the developing world" would have put their ideas into
practice by supporting him. Quoting Martin Luther King, he
observed that change was not an inevitability but a result of
constant struggle. Minty likened South Africa's own freedom
struggle to the struggle to rid the world of nuclear weapons,
and to this end he envisioned "dynamic new partnerships and
coalitions." He acknowledged the importance of
nonproliferation but promised vigilance to ensure developing
countries are not denied access to nuclear technology. Minty
concluded by noting that South Africa and its supporters
would evaluate the results with a view toward facilitating
the election of a new Director General, thus leaving the door
open for his own re-nomination.


7. (C) Following the Board meeting, Minty denied to
Ambassador Schulte that his comments were directed at the
United States despite his emphatic reference to "change," and
claimed that his disappointment was aimed at members of
NEPAD, the AU and others who did not support him. The South
African DCM was privately much more blunt about
"consequences" of the vote against Minty in the NSG, NPT
Revcon, on the issue of nuclear fuel supply assurances, and
elsewhere.


8. (SBU) By contrast, a visibly shaken Amano delivered a
short, low-key statement at the end of the meeting, thanking
those who had put their trust in him and, noting the IAEA's
tremendous tasks ahead, appealed for unity in meeting common
goals. The deep rift that the vote exposed on the Board left
many uncomfortable and worried about Agency business. The
Ghanaian Charge, who voted for Amano on the 27th, argued that
23 was close enough to a consensus and suggested we should
just not walk away from that.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The race is now wide open. While numerous candidacies
are being whispered about in the corridors, it remains to be
seen how many of "pretenders" are actually nominated by
April. By our last count, we have heard of five Europeans,
three Latin Americans, and one Asian, in addition to Amano,
as potential candidates. Although Japan has stated for
nearly a year its intent to re-nominate Amano in this
circumstance, he will be handicapped by his failure to
succeed the first time around. On the other hand, Japan made
an enormous investment in their candidate; Brazil, for
instance, told us that Japanese PM Aso called President Lula
the night of March 26th to appeal (unsuccessfully) for
Brazil's abstention. France was also extremely active in
working for Amano, and may be reluctant to change horses
without a clear alternative to Minty. A strong Latin
candidate would have a claim on equitable geographic
representation, as no previous IAEA Director General has come
from the region (also true of Asia),and because more
broadly, GRULAC will be underrepresented at the helm of
international organizations once OPCW head Rogelio Pfirter
steps down. A Latin candidate from a G-77 country who can
garner Western support could also mitigate the North-South
dynamic that divides the Board and IAEA, as was demonstrated
in the Amano-Minty showdown.


SCHULTE