TUNISIAN POLITICAL PARTIES: THE "LOYALS" AND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000930

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TS
SUBJECT: TUNISIAN POLITICAL PARTIES: THE "LOYALS" AND THE
OPPOSITION

REF: A. TUNIS 868

B. TUNIS 834

C. TUNIS 813

D. TUNIS 792

E. TUNIS 769

Classified by Ambassador Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) In recent calls on leaders of most of Tunisia's
"opposition" parties, the Ambassador heard widely varying
views and assessments of national political life. Several
leaders of parties loyal to the government heaped slavish
praise on President Ben Ali for his purported wisdom,
prudence, and vision, even as they (timidly) pointed out
national areas for improvement. Leaders of each of Tunisia's
three genuinely independent legal opposition parties, by
contrast, were grim: government repression is reaching
unprecedented heights, they believed, and prospects for
democratic transition have never seemed bleaker. The U.S.
and the EU have some leverage and/or moral authority, the
opposition leaders thought, and might help Ben Ali find the
will to make changes. End summary.


2. (C) Between December 17 and December 22, the Ambassador
called on leaders of six of Tunisia's eight legal political
parties (excluding the head of the ruling (and omnipotent)
Democratic Constitional Rally (RCD) with whom he met in late
November (ref A).) The Ambassador met with the heads of
three parties loyal to the Ben Ali goverment: Mondher
Thabet, head of the Social Liberal Party (PSL),Ismael
Boulahya, head of the Democratic Socialist Movement (MDS),
and Mongi Khamassi, head of the Green Party for Progress
(PVP). The Ambassador also called on Ahmed Brahim, head of
the Tajdid ("Renewal") Movement, who waged a spirited if
anemic presidential run against Ben Ali in October, Mustapha
Ben Jaafar of the Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberty
(FTDL),and Maya Jrebi and Nejib Chebbi, the
Secretary-General and founder, respectively, of the
Democratic Party for Progress (PDP).

-------------- --------------
Things Are Good... and Getting Better (More or Less)
-------------- --------------


3. (C) The offices of the PSL and the MDS are decorated with
prominent portraits of President Ben Ali, bearing captions
highlighting the President's many virtues. While portraits
of Ben Ali were conspicuously absent from the lime green
walls of the PVP's headquarters, party leader Mongi Khamassi
quickly compensated for this with a 50 minute monologue
underscoring his great admiration for the President and his
numerous achievements in office. Oddly, the leader of this
"green" party was more than 40 minutes into his remarks to
the Ambassador before he mentioned the environment, and then

only briefly. Khammassi's principal theme was that Tunisia
was gradually and irreversibly moving forward toward full
democracy and pluralism.


4. (C) Asked about contacts between the PVP and the green
parties of Western Europe, Khamassi recalled that the French
Green Party had backed his rival Abdelkader Al-Zitouni and
had later dismissed the PVP as a shell. "These French do not
want to see real political parties in Tunisia, only
marionettes which they can control," Khamassi explained.
(Note: The PVP's critics charge that the party was hastily
stood up by the Ministry of Interior in 2006, preempting the
efforts of ecologist (and GOT critic) Zitouni to form
Tunisia's first Green Party, in consultation with European
counterparts. End note.) The PVP went from zero to six
parliamentary seats in the October elections, making it
eligible for public financing. Asked how the party was
funded before it reached the parliament, Khamassi maintained
that he had done so mainly at his own expense.


5. (C) Mondher Thabet of the PSL was another talkative party
leader, whose welcoming remarks to the Ambassador lasted a
full hour. Thabet underscored his admiration for President
Ben Ali, his fierce opposition to Islamism, and his firm
belief in free markets. The PSL is in many respects an
ideological ally of the U.S., Thabet repeated on several
occasions, praising in particular President Obama's speech in
Cairo. Asserting his independence from the government,
Thabet complained that "Nessma" and "Hannibal," Tunisia's two
leading independent stations, were blocked from presenting
news programs, leaving State TV to play a role "like
Goebbels." Thabet acknowledged that unemployment was a
serious problem, but praised Ben Ali's efforts to defuse the

root causes of the 2008 unrest in the impoverished interior
mining region of Gafsa. The PSL went from two to eight seats
in the October elections.


6. (C) Of the three "loyal" parties, Ismael Boulahya made the
most convincing case that the MDS constitutes an actual party
rather than a shell, even if it is a mere shadow of its
former self. In fact, the MDS, founded in the 1970s by Ahmed
Mestiri, a former Defense Minister under President Bourguiba,
is widely believed to have won the 1981 legislative
elections, a victory allegedly overturned fraudulently on
Bourguiba's orders. Mestiri's successor as party head was
jailed by Ben Ali in the late 1980s, and replaced, through
government intervention, by the much more compliant Boulahya.
Nonetheless, Boulahya became animated when asked about the
differences between the MDS and the ruling RCD,
characterizing the deportment of RCD MPs as boorish and
monopolistic. Today, the MDS holds 16 seats in the 214 seat
parliament, the most of any party other than the ruling RCD
(which holds 161 seats). The MDS still regularly organizes
public colloquia, particularly on economic policy issues.
Boulahya expressed to the Ambassador interest in working with
the U.S. Embassy on leadership training for the party's youth
wing - an idea we will scrutinize and consider.

--------------
Independent Opposition Paint a Bleak Picture
--------------


7. (C) There was a stark contrast in tone and content between
the Ambassador's discussions with the leaders of three
"loyal" opposition parties and his discussions with the
leaders of Tunisia's three legal (and genuinely independent)
opposition parties. Ahmed Brahim, who waged a spirited, if
anemic presidential campaign in October (ref E),pointed out
the ironic contradiction between Ben Ali's crushing electoral
victory (refs C and D) and his government's painfully
apparent thin skin and insecurity (ref B). Brahim noted the
Interior Ministry's continuous surveillance, and imposition
of restrictions, on the Tajdid Movement's leadership, and its
constant harassment of the party's rank and file. "If Ben
Ali had such a glorious electoral victory why does he treat
me (who took 1.6 percent of the vote) like such a dangerous
person?"


8. (C) Brahim's Tajdid Movement holds two seats in parliament
- the only seats belonging to a genuinely independent
opposition party. Brahim said Ben Ali's position of
strength, towering over Tunisia's political scene, left him
well placed to start laying the groundwork for democratic
transition, but there were so far no indications that the
President has any such intention. "We will continue to work,
and continue to seek opportunities for participation and
dialogue," Brahim affirmed.


9. (C) Similarly, Maya Jribi and Nejib Chebbi, the
Secretary-General and founder, respectively, of the PDP, the
opposition party singled out for the harshest treatment by
Ben Ali's Interior Ministry, cited to the Ambassador the
latest round of harassment, arrests, and prosecutions of
independent activists as evidence that the trendline was
clearly toward greater repression in national political life.
Chebbi assailed the GOT's application of its
counterterrorism law, which led to harsh jail terms for many
youths, most of whom had not been shown to be dangerous, but
who may have made the mistake of visiting jihadist websites,
however briefly. This approach was accelerating
disenfranchisement and radicalization rather than countering
it, Chebbi maintained.


10. (C) Jribi and Chebbi applauded the USG for "taking a
stand" on Ben Ali's October election, avoiding
counterproductive confrontation while sending a clear signal
that Washington did not accept the GOT's undemocratic
approach. Jribi underlined the importance the PDP attached
to "global solidarity" in the face of domestic isolation and
repression. The party's leadership took courage from its
contacts and support from U.S.-based groups such as the
Committee to Protect Journalists, Human Rights Watch, the
National Democratic Institute, the International Republican
Institute, and the National Endowment for Democracy, Jribi
noted. Chebbi said the PDP was determined to continue to
play a role in spite of the GOT's efforts to marginalize it.
"We are not a covert force," he stated. "We believe peaceful
and legal political action will eventually deliver results,"
Chebbi underlined, the government "must open a serious
national dialogue with civil society."


11. (C) Likewise, Dr. Ahmed Ben Jaafar of the FTDL underlined
to the Ambassador his view that Tunisia was suffering a
"serious disequilibrium" in its political life that could
eventually lead to a dangerous societal disintegration. "The

elements of an explosion are present," he warned. Ben
Jaafar, who had publicized in the summer of 2009 his interest
in running for president in October, was eventually ruled
technically ineligible under the terms of the election law
revised in 2008. (Some observers believe the law was
specifically tailored to prevent Ben Jaafar and Chebbi from
running.) Discussing increasingly repressive trends, Ben
Jaafar observed that the GOT is slowly but surely strangling
the independent press, noting that the FTDL's publication
Al-Mouatinoun ("The Citizens"),strapped for cash and
hampered by government obstructions to its distribution, had
recently been forced to transform itself from a weekly to a
monthly, and could soon fold altogether.


12. (C) Asked about potential solutions, Ben Jaafar echoed
both Chebbi's call for a national dialogue and Brahim's view
that Ben Ali was now well placed to "make a courageous
decision for reform" even if that was not in the perceived
interest of "his clan." The key necessary ingredient, Ben
Jaafar emphasized, was will. The European Union has
potential influence, he continued, noting the Tunisian
government's request for "advanced status" (like Morocco's)
in its Association Agreement with Tunisia. Similarly,
President Obama's June Cairo speech had created good will and
opportunities that must be exploited, Ben Jaafar thought.
The U.S. and EU should find ways to apply advice and
constructive pressure on the Ben Ali government, he
continued.


13. (C) Ben Jaafar placed great importance on an anticipated
cabinet shuffle, said to have been under preparation since
the ruling party's annual conference on November 7. "I hope
some credible personalities will take key positions," he
said. Ben Jaafar expected Prime Minister Ghannouchi to
retain his seat and allowed that he had a well-deserved
reputation for competence and honesty. At the same time, he
thought, a technocrat like Ghannouchi is least likely to
pursue meaningful political reforms. Perhaps, at least, some
of the (unnamed) "worst offenders" will go, Ben Jaafar mused.


GRAY