REACTING TO THE OCTOBER 25 TUNISIAN ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TUNIS 000789

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC TS
SUBJECT: REACTING TO THE OCTOBER 25 TUNISIAN ELECTIONS

REF: A. TUNIS 780

B. TUNIS 769

C. TUNIS 760

D. TUNIS 748

E. TUNIS 746

F. TUNIS 741

G. TUNIS 694 AND PREVIOUS

Classified by Ambassador Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Tunisia will hold presidential and legislative
elections on October 25. In this carefully engineered,
non-competitive process, President Ben Ali and
the ruling Democratic Constitutional Rally will win by large
margins. No credible independent observers, foreign or
domestic, have been invited to participate, but the Embassy
will be dispatching ten officers to assess election-day
atmospherics. The Embassy believes a pointed USG
condemnation of the process would not advance the democratic
cause in Tunisia, but we should also avoid any statements the
GOT would repackage and market as a U.S. endorsement of Ben
Ali's re-election. End summary.

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The Elections
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2. (C) On October 25, Tunisia will hold its presidential and
legislative elections. Having carefully engineered the
electoral playing field, there is no doubt that President Ben
Ali will easily win his fifth five-year mandate. The ruling
Democratic Constitutional Rally (RCD) will retain three
quarters of parliamentary seats; the remaining quarter is
reserved for the (divided) opposition.


3. (C) As discussed reftels, attitudes among the Tunisian
public toward the election range from apathy and resignation
to extreme frustration. Some will not vote at all, but many
will go to the polls only because local RCD minders will
notice if they do not and their jobs or other benefits may be
on the line. Despite this frustration, Ben Ali's re-election
is unlikely to prompt demonstrations or other protests during
or after the elections.

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Observers
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4. (C) The GOT has not invited any credible independent
election observers, foreign or domestic, to participate.
Representatives of the international media, closely monitored
by the GOT, may accurately report on election conditions, but
the "rest of the story" will come out through individual
Tunisians and uninvited journalists using the Internet.
There are approximately 88,000 Tunisians on Facebook alone
and several independent Internet news outlets focus
exclusively on Tunisia.


5. (C) On election day, the Embassy will be dispatching ten
officers to unofficially observe, both in Tunis proper and in
population centers in the northern and central parts of the
country. Since the GOT has not invited any
diplomatic participation, our observations will be
atmospheric rather than technical.

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Recommended Public Stance
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6. (C) The Embassy recommends against issuing a statement
condemning the lack of fairness and transparency in the
election process. The USG did not comment on President
Bouteflika's re-election earlier this year, and many of the
circumstances (including amending the constitution to allow
the incumbent to run again) are similar. More important, we
assess that such a statement would not be effective in
opening greater political space in Tunisia.


7. (C) At the same time, we recommend against any sort of
USG congratulatory message to President Ben Ali or the GOT.
The GOT and the state-controlled media will seize upon any
USG message, no matter how nuanced, as an endorsement of
President Ben Ali's re-election. Such a USG statement would
also demoralize Tunisian democracy advocates, already
frustrated by the lack of freedom in these elections.

GRAY